A preview of Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka 2: Predicting the winner of UFC 303 main event
The Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka rematch is just days away from headlining UFC 303, which was originally meant to serve as a showcase for Conor McGregor's long-awaited octagon return against Michael Chandler. Unfortunately, the Irishman fractured his toe and withdrew from the bout.
Now, Pereira and Procházka have agreed to step up on just two weeks' notice, which may very well factor into how the rematch plays out. Their last meeting took place as the headline of another pay-per-view that also lost its original main event—Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic—at UFC 295.
The first bout ended with a Pereira TKO win, although the stoppage courted a degree of criticism, with some labeling it early. So, can Procházka rectify that loss, or will 'Poatan' silence any of his lingering doubters?
Check out the Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka 2 promo video:
Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka 2: An analysis of the rematch
The bout between Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka is one that fans have already seen. Both men operate primarily as strikers, so wrestling and grappling won't be as significant to their clash, although Procházka does mix in the occasional takedown to give his opponent a different look.
The truth is that the fight will play out largely on the feet, where both men are destructive forces. Pereira doesn't offer much in the way of variety. Instead, he has a strong grasp on fundamentals. In particular, he has mastered the art of setting up and throwing the lead left hook with minimal danger.
First, he keeps his shoulders square, while opening up his chest. This straightens his left hook, such that the arc it travels through is shorter than a traditional hook, which is wider. Thus, Pereira's left hook lands first, which is crucial, given that landing a hook requires one to stand close enough to also be countered by one.
This enables him to land his left hook before his opponent, and when they least expect it, which is a contributing factor to his knockouts. Moreover, he incorporates level changes with a short dip prior to springing upward with momentum poured into his left hook, as he leans into it.
Check out Alex Pereira countering Jiří Procházka with a left hook:
However, it isn't all technique. Pereira's power is also genetic, as he was able to knock out Jamahal Hill with his two bottom knuckles: the least powerful part of a punch. This is where the danger for Procházka presents itself. The Czech sensation is a flashy and violent striker who lunges into the line of fire.
He fights from a wide, bladed stance, bouncing back and forth with tremendous quickness. His forward movement is designed to draw out his opponent's strikes. If his foe takes the bait, he hops back just an inch, causing their punches to fall short of landing, while he bouncing forward with a counterpunch over the top.
The former light heavyweight champion also throws in combination, extending his stay in the pocket to smother his opponent, boxing them into a purely reactive state of mind due to the stream of constant offense. Procházka's natural speed is helped by how low he keeps his hands, as he throws his punches from the hip.
This renders it difficult for his opponent to see his punches coming because they're coming from underneath them, below their line of sight. This was a major factor in Procházka's first bout with Pereira, as he managed to frequently sting the reigning 205-pound champion with punches he had trouble predicting.
Furthermore, the Czech phenom's combinations in the pocket prevented Pereira from having enough time and space to make reads. However, Procházka himself fell victim to some of the Brazilian's traps. Pereira often dips low with jabs to the body, drawing his foe's hands low.
Given that Procházka's hands are always low, Pereira didn't have to worry about drawing his guard away from his chin. Instead, he merely had to convince his opponent to parry his body jab, which Procházka did, as he much prefers parrying strikes with flashy, traditional martial arts arm movements.
This, though, keeps his hands busy, and allows Pereira to then fake the body jab, then come over the top with a thunderous left hook. It was how he knocked out Sean Strickland, another fighter who likes to parry strikes. Another facet of 'Poatan's' game that troubled Procházka are low kicks.
Check out Alex Pereira dropping Jiří Procházka with low kicks:
It appears that Procházka will never address them, as he ate several low kicks at UFC 300 from Aleksandar Rakić, who he subsequently TKO'd. He never bothered to check them and seems to have no clue on how to defend against them. Pereira's low kicks are even more devastating, as they're difficult to predict.
He doesn't turn his hips into them ala José Aldo or his nemesis Israel Adesanya, nor does he step deep with a large windup that telegraphs it. Instead, Pereira throws low kicks from a neutral stance with his hip held back, with a quick snap of the knee, making them extremely difficult to see.
This allows him to immediately retract his kicking leg back into stance, so that he can react quickly to any potential counters, which Procházka actually tried to land in their first bout. Unfortunately, Pereira's ability to roll with punches made it difficult for the Czech star to land clean.
Additionally, the kicks are so strangely powerful that he took Procházka off his feet and even caused him to panic-wrestle. The same effect occurred against Jan Błachowicz. However, the kicks are especially effective against 'Denisa' due to how wide his stance is. His lead leg is always loaded with weight and exposed.
From a stylistic standpoint, Pereira should win by destabilizing Procházka's stance with low kicks, making him chase a finish more desperately, only to run into a counter left hook, given how recklessly he lunges into the pocket with his hands low, chin exposed, and head always on the center-line.
Another factor to consider is that they've fought each other before. Pereira will be familiar with Procházka's awkward movement and better prepared. Also, they're both making quick turnarounds from UFC 300, where Procházka sustained far more damage than Pereira did.
While Procházka certainly has the tools to trouble Pereira, UFC 303 will not end with a victory for him.
Official Prediction: Alex Pereira to knock out Jiří Procházka within two rounds.