Alexander Volkanovski to star at UFC 300 only 55 days after Ilia Topuria fight? Exploring the chances of 'The Great's' claim coming true
Alexander Volkanovski is scheduled to defend his featherweight title against Ilia Topuria this Saturday at UFC 298. The Spaniard is a brash and unbeaten finisher and has promised to mow down the defending champion. Volkanovski, however, has scoffed at his opponent's predictions of a first-round finish.
In fact, he is supremely confident that he will humble 'El Matador' in such a a dominant fashion that he could quickly turn to fight at UFC 300. Looking past one's opponent rarely goes well, no matter how dominant or skilled one is. But Volkanovski has been nothing if not an exception throughout his career.
However, 'The Great' must do more than just win come Saturday evening. He must escape the bout absolutely unscathed to step back into the octagon a mere 55 days later. So, is this even possible, or is Volkanovski overestimating himself?
Everything must go right for Alexander Volkanovski to fight at UFC 300
This wouldn't be the first time that a defending champion looked past his or her opponent, only to suffer a stunning defeat that derailed their future plans and, in some cases, their careers. Alexander Volkanovski's desire to fight at UFC 300 hinges on his ability to completely dominate Ilia Topuria come fight night.
First, there is the issue that fighters rarely, if ever, step into the octagon injury-free. Virtually every mixed martial artist carries little knocks into the cage, and they only worsen after grueling combat with another fighter of equal skill. And for all of Volkanovski's otherworldly talent, he is not invincible.
"I think they're struggling still, maybe, I don't know, seems like it could be, I don't know, wherever they are with UFC 300. I know a guy, you know what I mean? It's plenty of time."
Check out Alexander Volkanovski's offer to fight at UFC 300:
He is arguably as skilled as a fighter has ever been, but his flaws are documented. Among them is his tendency to concede space due to how comfortable he is fighting off the back foot. This could prove disastrous against a pressure fighter like Topuria, especially given Volkanovski's overuse of shifting combinations.
One of Volkanovski's responses to being backed up is a shifting combination, which, in simple terms, is just a fighter switching stances mid-combination. Unfortunately, doing so opens up his guard to counterpunches down the middle, which dropped him to a knee against Islam Makhachev in their first bout.
Against a far superior boxer and more traditionally powerful puncher in Topuria, this could hinder his chances of emerging from UFC 298 without taking any serious damage. Furthermore, Volkanovski suffered a brutal knockout loss to Makhachev on Oct. 21, and he is already returning on Feb. 17.
It is a quick turnaround, and many fear that he has not allowed his brain the time to heal from the physical trauma. This is especially troublesome against an opponent as sharp and powerful as Topuria, even more so given that Volkanovski gets hit clean several times in every fight.
Besides, his best option is a quick first-round knockout before he takes any significant strikes. This, however, is unlikely. The Australian is a respectable hitter, but he is no power puncher, so the probability of him flatlining Topuria is not high. Meanwhile, a long bout across several rounds will only hinder his UFC 300 plans.
"He doesn't have knockout power. He's a fighter who hits in volume."
Check out Ilia Topuria discussing Alexander Volkanovski's punching power (0:53):
The longer a fight goes on, no matter how dominant one is, the more magnified one's minor injuries are. Unless Volkanovski can pull off an uncharacteristic first-round finish, which he has yet to do in 15 UFC fights, his odds of fighting at UFC 300 are low.
Who would Alexander Volkanovski even fight at UFC 300?
If Alexander Volkanovski manages to exit UFC 298 without any serious damage, who could he face at UFC 300? First, there are his options at featherweight. As the reigning champion, 'The Great' would only face someone in the top five. Unfortunately, if he beats Ilia Topuria this Saturday, he'll have just one possible foe.
He has already beaten Max Holloway thrice, and the Hawaiian legend is ranked #1 in the division. Below him is Yair Rodriguez, who 'The Great' annihilated back in July and is booked to face Brian Ortega in a rematch. Speaking of 'T-City,' he is ranked No.4 but has already lost to Volkanovski and is on a two-fight losing streak.
Topuria, who is currently ranked No.3, would be someone that Volkanovski would have freshly beaten in this hypothetical scenario, and in dominant fashion if he is ready for a UFC 300 turnaround. So, a rematch would make no sense whatsoever. That leaves the #5 ranked Movsar Evloev.
Evloev is currently undefeated but has done nothing to set the UFC fanbase alight, as all 8 of his UFC wins have come via decision. So would a bout between Volkanovski and Evloev even be worthy of a UFC 300 slot, especially after UFC CEO Dana White trashed the Russian's recent win over Arnold Allen as boring?
Simply put, Volkanovski has no options at featherweight. So what of lightweight, the weight class he envisions as his future? He has already lost twice to Islam Makhachev, so booking him into a title fight with the lightweight kingpin would make no sense.
The #1 ranked Charles Oliveira and #4 ranked Arman Tsarukyan are already booked to face each other at UFC 300. Justin Gaethje, who is ranked #2, is taking on Max Holloway in a BMF title fight, and the #3 ranked Dustin Poirier is set to face the streaking Benoît Saint Denis at UFC 299.
The only sensible option is the No.5-ranked Michael Chandler, which would be a thrilling matchup between two one-of-a-kind physical specimens. However, 'Iron' is unlikely to accept the bout as he is still holding out for his matchup with Conor McGregor.
So unless the UFC convinces Chandler to fight Volkanovski while he waits for McGregor, which is unlikely given the risk of injury that could derail the planned Chandler-McGregor bout, there is nothing compelling for Chandler. That leaves just one more potential opponent: Sean O'Malley.
'Sugar' is set to defend his newly minted bantamweight title against Marlon Vera at UFC 299. If he wins, he could face Volkanovski at UFC 300. However, the probability is low, given O'Malley's own reluctance to face someone like Volkanovski. Furthermore, there is no guarantee he will win at UFC 299.
UFC 300 is an event many have dreamed of participating in, but it may not be in Volkanovski's future.