An early look at Israel Adesanya vs. Dricus du Plessis
It's no secret who Israel Adesanya will face in his next title defense. The Nigerian-born New Zealander's claim to the middleweight throne will be challenged by Dricus du Plessis, a South African with whom 'The Last Stylebender' has a feud rooted in African pride.
Du Plessis' remarks about being a truer representative of African MMA than the likes of Kamaru Usman, Francis Ngannou and Israel Adesanya cut deep and ignited a fury within the reigning middleweight champion, unlike anything fans have ever seen from him. The two are now set to face off later this year.
While Israel Adesanya has firmly enthroned himself as the greatest 185-pounder in the world and has drawn praise for his technical brilliance, Dricus du Plessis' mettle as a top fighter has been doubted throughout his journey to his first-ever UFC title shot.
Many expect Israel Adesanya to score an easy victory, but that's been the story of every du Plessis fight. Everyone is expected to beat him easily, until they don't. So what are the dynamics of this bout, and how could it play out?
Fighter Profile: Israel Adesanya
By now, fans and fighters alike are more than familiar with Israel Adesanya's game. 'The Last Stylebender' is a counterpuncher by trade. He does not thrive when he's applying pressure on the lead, unless it's against an opponent who is relatively poor on the backfoot, like his longtime rival Alex Pereira.
Israel Adesanya is at his best when he's allowed to operate comfortably from his preferred range. He stands on the outside, brutalizing his opponent's lead leg with thunderous low kicks, occasionally whipping his leg higher for a question mark kick once he's established the threat down low.
In his win over Paulo Costa as well as his more controversial one over Yoel Romero, Israel Adesanya relied heavily on the effectiveness of his kicks. They are especially difficult to defend against due to his use of hip feints. Opponents never know whether they'll be kicked or bite on a feint.
Israel Adesanya just made that look SUPER EASY! Shut Paulo Costa UP. #AndStill #UFC253 https://t.co/O1OUnZknyz
His high volume of feints can neutralize an opponent's offense, freezing them in place, as was the case when he faced Jared Cannonier. But if an opponent does bite on his feints, they're countered in sniping fashion. This is partly due to him being one of the tallest middleweights on the roster.
His height and length enable him to fight from a much longer range than other 185-pounders can. This forces opponents who want to engage him to take more forward steps when closing the distance. Unfortunately, for them, this telegraphs their intent and allows him to make reads as he continues feinting more easily.
Once he has a solid grasp on his foe's reactions, he starts landing counters. But an opponent who manages to lunge into his range is still in danger. In the pocket, he leans away from punches, twisting his entire upper-body into counter-hooks. This led to his title-winning knockout over Robert Whittaker at UFC 243.
While his striking is sublime, his grappling is not quite as strong. Defensively, he relies on lead uppercuts to intercept a wrestler's chin as they dive for takedowns. He might even throw a knee up the middle, which led to his TKO win over Derek Brunson, after his foe kept diving in for takedowns.
Quick clip of Israel Adesanya’s (@stylebender) finish against Derek Brunson at #UFC 230.
That question mark kick to right hand is so smooth 🤤 https://t.co/fucox1DWPr
The uppercut, however, remains his favorite. Not only does it keep him in position, but if he misses, he can still use his arm to dig for an underhook and sprawl. Unfortunately, once Israel Adesanya hits the mat, he often turns towards his stomach to get on all fours and stand back up.
In doing so, he exposes his back. And against a skilled grappler who can threaten submissions, this could prove troublesome.
Fighter Profile: Dricus du Plessis
Dricus du Plessis isn't the most technical fighter in the world. In fact, he's been heavily underestimated throughout his entire UFC run due to his poor striking mechanics. That, however, does not mean that 'Stillknocks' isn't an effective fighter. After, all, he's effective enough to be on a six-fight win streak.
On the feet, the South African is an awkward striker with a breadth of knockout power, enough to do what even Yoel Romero couldn't: finish Robert Whittaker with strikes. He is tricky to deal with due to how often he switches stances and his bizarre, pseudo-feint movements before committing to kicks.
He switches from southpaw to orthodox in a shifting combination to close the distance on his foes. He does so during bursts of surprising speed, which breaks the lackadaisical rhythm he maintains for most of the fight, only to disrupt his opponent's adaptations to that rhythm.
What a statement win last weekend at #UFC290, finishing a tough oppenent in Robert Whittaker!
Dricus Du Plessis is the next fight for the current Middleweight king Israel Adesanya, how do you see the title fight going? https://t.co/4gK5eRYAGI
The aforementioned bundle of pseud-feint movements he uses before throwing kicks makes it difficult to gauge exactly when he's going to commit, which even troubled former middleweight titleholder Robert Whittaker. Defensively, however, Dricus du Plessis is fairly poor.
He hardly ever moves his head off the center-line when striking, or at all. Instead, he uses a high guard and simply waits for his opponent to stop striking. While it adequately defends his head, it leaves his midsection highly vulnerable to body shots. When he is on the offense, his untucked chin is also open to counters.
His greatest strengths seem to be his grappling. When he comes forward, he sets up his takedowns with punches. In other cases, he punches his way into the clinch to secure collar-ties to trick his foes into pummeling with him for position in the clinch.
Upon doing so, he drops under for a double-leg. Alternatively, he'll rely on his brute strength for throws. However, he'll sometimes attempt lateral drops that simply grant his opponent top control over him, so there's a fair amount of risk when it comes to his clinch game.
But what's truly terrifying about du Plessis is his physicality. He is monstrously strong, arguably the strongest middleweight in the world. In his win over Darren Till, 'Stillknocks' scored a takedown in surprising fashion. He tried to lock his hands behind Till's legs, but his foe's base was too wide.
In response, du Plessis simply raised one of the former title challenger's legs, consequently lifting his entire body while using his other hand to push down on Till's alternate leg in a strange combination of a sweep and a double-leg takedown. His strength was on further display in his bout against Whittaker.
December 10, 2022
UFC 282
Dricus showed off his grappling skill Vs Darren Till
Won via Face Crank in Round 3 https://t.co/Zxkn3Mhn86
Romero, an Olympic-level wrestler and all-around physical freak, couldn't control the Australian on the mat, but du Plessis did so with shocking ease. On the ground, he is active with his transitions, always looking to advance his position, while preventing his opponent from getting back to their feet.
If his foe tries to plant their foot on the mat to push themselves back to a standing position, the South African hooks his leg over his opponent's planted leg, using his thigh as a physical barrier above their leg, trapping them in place. He is also an active submission hunter.
Perhaps the most curious detail about Dricus du Plessis is his tactical awareness. After beating Whittaker, he spoke about noticing the Australian's vulnerability to the southpaw jab and banked on that. It's an oft-underestimated part of his game that makes him even more dangerous.
The Verdict
The safe pick in such a bout is Israel Adesanya. But Dricus du Plessis has made a career out of defeating the safe pick in numerous ways. Logic dictates that Israel Adesanya will punish him with body shots due to how exposed his midsection is, and likely snipe him with a counter as he tries to shift into range.
However, the South African's tactical ingenuity could prove valuable. Adesanya's overreliance on leaning back from attacks means he can be forced to lean too far back against someone who doubles their straight punches. This would leave him in the worst possible position to absorb a follow-up strike like a head kick.
Kelvin Gastelum found success against him by doubling up his straights and landing a head kick at the end. If Dricus du Plessis picks up on this, it could make the fight interesting. Furthermore, Israel Adesanya's tendency to expose his back renders him extremely vulnerable on the mat.
A grappler with transitions, submissions and freakish strength like du Plessis may very well dominate him on the ground, especially given how readily Israel Adesanya abandons the positional tenets of grappling to try and stand up.
But, as much as Dricus du Plessis defies the odds, Israel Adesanya is likely too good and will TKO him.