An early look at Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

Nothing's been confirmed, but Israel Adesanya is now expected to face Sean Strickland at a later date, likely UFC 293. The reason for the sudden shift from a matchup with Dricus du Plessis? The South African has allegedly suffered a foot injury, at least according to 'The Last Stylebender'.

If the UFC moves forward with Israel Adesanya's suggestion of a bout with Strickland, it will be 'Tarzan's' first-ever UFC title fight, and one that he has been calling for, for quite some time. He has been a thorn in Israel Adesanya's side in terms of trash talk, and it has birthed a feud between the two men.

It could prove to be an interesting clash, especially during the leadup to their meeting in the octagon, where Sean Strickland will certainly take aim at Israel Adesanya in every media event. But how would a bout between them actually go? What are Strickland's chances of scoring an upset?

Fighter Profile: Israel Adesanya

Reigning UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is a striker above all else. As a former kickboxer, grappling often takes a backseat when it comes to his primary strategy inside the octagon. In fact, outside of his first MMA fight with Alex Pereira, 'The Last Stylebender' never pursues takedowns.

Instead, his wrestling and grappling are almost entirely defensive, and are unlikely to play a factor in a bout with Strickland, who operates mainly as a boxer. On the feet, Israel Adesanya is the best kickboxer in the middleweight division, especially after Alex Pereira's exodus to light heavyweight.

The head kick 😍
The leg kicks 🦶
The hook 💪
The jab 👊

Israel Adesanya got EVERYTHING right against Paulo Costa and it's even better in slow motion 🔥 #UFC253 pic.twitter.com/W8Zcz7IvEF

The champion is at his best on the counter. He is the tallest and longest 185-pounder on the roster, enabling him to operate from a range that no one else can. From the outside, he freezes his opponents with a myriad of feints, especially hip feints, which very few UFC fighters use.

Adesanya's use of hip feints are important given his reputation as a powerful low-kicker. The likes of Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa can attest to how destabilizing his low kicks to one's stance and forward pressure can be. He slams his shin into his foe's leg hard and fast, rendering them more stationary.

Upon establishing the threat of his low kicks, he begins using feints to draw overreactions. He thrusts his hips, and due to the scarcity of such feints in the sport, his foe never knows if it's merely an illusion or the precursor to a kick. Furthermore, he uses his low kicks to set up question-mark kicks.

An opponent who is overly concerned with defending low kicks will likely lower their hand to catch or parry them. This, however, leaves their head exposed, allowing Israel Adesanya to fake a kick low, then whip his shin over the top at the final instance. Alternatively, he'll use his kicks to set up his punches.

With his opponent now worried about kicks, both high and low, 'The Last Stylebender' will use the threat of one to interrupt his foe's adaptations. Once they've settled into the rhythm of his kicks, he snipes them with punches. He does so by raising his leg to tease a kick.

💥 Israel Adesanya produces a virtuoso performance to KO Robert Whittaker and become UFC Middleweight champion. pic.twitter.com/uAifErpgov

But, the kick never comes. Instead, he shifts into a different stance to land a lightning-quick jab-straight combination down the middle. In other cases, he'll maintain kicking range, landing hard low kicks to frustrate his foe into lunging forward to cross the long distance between them, telegraphing their intent.

He often snipes anyone who dares to do so, but against someone who manages to get in close, Israel Adesanya leans back at the waist, twisting his torso at the hips to add maximum torque to counter-hooks that blast an overextending foe with punches they don't see coming.

These counters aren't always hooks. Sometimes, he'll simply use a standard pull-counter by using his height and length to lean just an inch beyond his foe's reach, then lean back in with a cross. As with many counterpunchers, his defensive footwork is excellent.

'The Last Stylebender' is incredibly difficult to back up, as Paulo Costa found out. The moment his back is close to the fence, he flattens out his stance and starts shuffling from side to side, teasing a move in one direction with a shoulder fake before circling back out into open space in the other direction.

He is well-equipped to both outpoint and knock out his opponents. It's just a matter of intent. Though some fighting styles are trickier for him than others.

Fighter Profile: Sean Strickland

Sean Strickland is one of those fighters whose trash talk doesn't quite match his fighting style. 'Tarzan' is one of the most outspoken personalities in the entire roster, and he frequently upholds himself as a standard-bearer of manliness. Unfortunately, his work inside the octagon doesn't reflect his claims.

He's not a wild man determined to draw blood. Instead, he is a defensively sound boxer, who applies forward pressure, with the occasional kick. Despite what his recent TKO over Abusupiyan Magomedov might imply, Sean Strickland is not a consistent finisher. He's had seven wins from 2020 to now, only two are finishes.

Sean Strickland finishes Abus Magomedov🥶 pic.twitter.com/56YEoaqRLm

That is because almost everything 'Tarzan' does begins and ends with his jab. It's his primary distance management tool. He fights very tall with his back straight, guard kept high and elbows tucked in to his midsection. Once Strickland marches forward, he's very difficult to back up.

He's not a master of offensive lateral footwork, cutting off his opponent's angles of escape by stepping with them, sliding his foot across their body as they circle. Instead, he just gives them no breathing room. Linear movement or not. While doing so, he pumps out his jab. If it lands, so can his right straight/cross.

A sharp jab, right straight, and constant pressure awarded him a win over Uriah Hall, for example. Sometimes, that, and an endless gas tank, are all it takes. But if an opponent forces him to engage them outside of boxing range, Strickland isn't beyond throwing kicks, but doing so isn't his first choice.

While he is a competent wrestler who can use punches up top to create opportunities for takedowns below, he never dedicates himself to pursuing takedowns. Instead, the entire foundation of his game is a good one-two, endless pressure, excellent cardio and being ridiculously hard for foes to hit clean.

When Sean Strickland put on a boxing clinic against Uriah Hall. Watch that shoulder roll. I'm looking forward to seeing him back in the octagon this Saturday at #UFCVegas47. What about you? pic.twitter.com/MjN6EVWnDF

This is due, not only to Strickland's high guard, but also his tendency to parry punches and shoulder-roll. In the line of fire, he'll parry a punch and counter with a straight. Alternatively, he'll parry, keep marching forward, shouder-roll, and continue exhausting his foe with constant pressure and volume

Being on the front foot, while landing more, eating few shots and making his opponent wilt from his pressure is his game. But is it enough to dethrone Israel Adesanya?

The Verdict

Fights are chaotic. Anything can happen in 25 minutes with two men as well-trained as Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. But the champion should win, and handily. Sean Strickland's main weapon being his jab means he's exceedingly vulnerable to low kicks due to the jab's stance extension exposing his lead leg.

Furthermore, Strickland's near-complete lack of a fully realized kicking game or wrestling threat would harm him whenever he's not in boxing range against one of the most mobile fighters in the division. He can't ground Israel Adesanya or slow his movement down with low kicks.

Adesanya's tendency to lean away from everything can be countered by a dedicated attack on the legs and body: the last and second-last body parts to exit range whenever he leans away. Strickland has no dedicated kicking game to do so.

Furthermore, Israel Adesanya's longtime rival Alex Pereira showed the vulnerabilities of Strickland's parrying. Pereira jabbed low to the body, drawing Strickland's hands to his midsection and leaving his chin exposed. So when the American tried to parry another body jab, he ate a left hook for his troubles.

If the two fight, look for Israel Adesanya to punish him with low kicks, frustrate him with movement and snipe his linear footwork with counters en route to a comfortable unanimous decision win.

A knockout though, is possible, especially if Strickland eats a question-mark quick after trying to parry what he thought would be a low kick.