An early look at Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington is the matchup expected to co-headline UFC 295. Only the heavyweight title bout between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic takes precedence over it. Covington's status as the next title challenger to Edwards' welterweight crown was revealed in the post-fight proceedings of UFC 286.
After cutting weight as the main event's backup fighter, 'Chaos' was rewarded for his efforts with a guaranteed title fight. Leon Edwards was not pleased with the revelation after defeating Kamaru Usman for the second time. He pointed to Covington's inactivity and one-fight win streak as evidence of his lack of merit.
Regardless, UFC president Dana White doubled down on his vow to book Colby Covington as Leon Edwards' next opponent, which 'Chaos' all but confirmed in a recent interview with the Submission Radio. With the two men expected to fight later this year, how does a matchup between them play out?
Fighter Profile: Leon Edwards
Despite being well-rounded, Leon Edwards is a creature of habit who fights mainly as a striker from a southpaw stance. The welterweight champion is a master of long range and has several tactics he uses against opponents regardless of their stance.
Against orthodox foes, Leon Edwards traps their lead hand with his own, neutralizing their jab to deprive them of their primary distance management tool. If they can't land their jab, they can't land anything else. While most southpaws do well against orthodox fighters, southpaws tend to struggle against each other.
For example, Conor McGregor's vulnerability to Dustin Poirier's calf kicks was due to their shared southpaw stance aligning 'The Diamond's' rear leg with McGregor's front leg, which the Irishman was completely unused to, as he'd mostly faced orthodox fighters whose rear legs were aligned with his rear leg.
Leon Edwards KO Kamaru Usman.
head kick win for the knockout at UFC 278.
#UFC278 #leonedwards #KamaruUsman pic.twitter.com/QWKLZLCI1e
This, however, is not the case with Leon Edwards. He does not fear the southpaw jab, instead countering it with a looping cross over the top. If his foe tries to slip too many of his crosses, he'll take a page from Robert Whittaker's book and turn his left hand inward to shove his foe's head into the path of a rising kick.
This is how he knocked out Kamaru Usman at UFC 278. But the opening for head kicks comes only from establishing the threat of cross-counters, which are exceptionally accurate in Leon Edwards' case due to him often taking an outside angle to blast his opponent on their open side.
Additionally, due to the long range that 'Rocky' maintains, many of his opponents, even educated strikers like Nate Diaz, are forced to overextend on their punches, exposing themselves to yet another counter that Leon Edwards has developed for the southpaw jab: his slip-uppercut.
But Leon Edwards isn't merely a rangy out fighter. In fact, he is lethal in the clinch. Anyone who tries to enter the clinch to secure takedowns against him immediately finds that 'Rocky' is quick to scoot his hips back to deny them an easy double-leg. Meanwhile, his size and length grant him tremendous leverage in these positions.
Leon Edwards catches Gunnar Nelson on the break! 😳
You will not see a nastier elbow all year! 😱
#UFCLondon pic.twitter.com/D7fhDnve5f
However, his goal is never to stay in the clinch. Instead, he turns at an angle, stepping across his foe, forcing them to step in towards him. Unfortunately, for his opponent, they are unknowingly stepping into the path of a hard elbow that he uses to both slice his foe open and break away from the clinch.
These elbows from the clinch were on full display when he defeated UFC Hall of Famer Donald Cerrone, for example. In terms of his grappling, 'Rocky' is almost entirely defensive, despite being able to secure takedowns of his own, like his trip-takedown from the clinch against Usman.
His takedown defense is good as he immediately digs for underhooks to sprawl. Alternatively, he frames his elbow against his foe's face to turn them away. When trapped against the fence, he expertly uses the cage to scale his way back to his feet, occasionally grabbing the cage.
Unfortunately, Leon Edwards has certain flaws that are due more to bad habits than poor skills. After being grounded by takedowns, he has a tendency to expose his back by turning on his stomach to push off the mat with his hands and feet. This makes him exceedingly vulnerable to chokes, back-mounts and mat-returns.
His most troubling tendency, however, is that he simply switches off during fights. Leon Edwards is prone to lapses in concentration, especially as he backs up to the fence and cedes space despite having respectable knockout power. These lapses typically manifest in brief moments of inactivity.
It led to Nate Diaz nearly knocking him out late in their bout, and even Bryan Barbarena doing the same. It isn't a cardio issue, it's simply a mental lapse that's prevalent in most of his performances.
Fighter Profile: Colby Covington
Former interim welterweight champion Colby Covington is the king of cardio and pressure. He is a wrestler, first and foremost, but he doesn't simply stumble forward shooting for takedowns with no prior setups with his strikes like Ben Askren. 'Chaos' isn't a one-dimensional grappler.
On the feet, he applies constant pressure, immediately swarming his opponent with a high volume of strikes, ranging from punches and kicks to elbows and knees. The goal of this approach isn't necessarily to score knockouts. Instead, Covington does so to both smother his foe's punches and overwhelm them.
Le travail en lutte de Colby Covington
Gros volume, grosse pression, excellent dans les transitions striking/lutte pic.twitter.com/fowcHqfzV0
By pushing a pace that no one can match, he ensures that his opponent is constantly on the back foot, which is exhausting and prevents them from planting their feet and squaring their hips to land counters with any power. Furthermore, his high-volume striking overrides his foe's decision-making process.
It forces his opponent into a purely reactive state. If all one does is react over and over again, they eventually react incorrectly. By duping his foe into trying to counter him as he extends his combinations and comes forward, he ducks under their punches and secures takedowns once he's close enough to the fence.
He's tireless enough to apply such an exhausting fighting style, as once he traps his opponent against the fence, he makes use of a triad of cage-wrestling approaches ranging from traditional double-leg takedowns to single-leg takedowns and rear-bodylocks from the clinch.
If he drops down for a double-leg and his foe widens their base, he'll transition to a single-leg, lifting one of his opponent's legs high before kicking out their standing leg. Alternatively, he'll secure a rear-bodylock, lean his opponent forward, then hook his leg around one of theirs, before dunking them for a takedown.
Le travail en lutte de Colby Covington
Gros volume, grosse pression, excellent dans les transitions striking/lutte pic.twitter.com/fowcHqfzV0
Once he has his hands locked around his opponent, Covington is committed to wrestling his foe, initiating scrambles after failed takedowns, while doing the same if he concedes a takedown of his own. This served him well in his win over former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley.
He is quick to ride the back, using it to create mat returns against opponents who expose their backs to plant their hands and feet on the mat to stand back up. This leaves openings for him to sink in a rear-naked choke, or at least tease it to force his foe to scramble to an even worse position that he simply rides through.
Defensively, he can be poor due to his lack of lateral footwork. Like Ronda Rousey, he has a tendency to bullrush in a straight line, which opens him up to counters against someone with enough footwork dexterity.
The Verdict
There is no way around the fact that this is an incredibly difficult matchup for Leon Edwards. His tendency to switch off mid-fight and constantly cede space, while backing up to the fence are the worst possible habits to have against a pressure-based cage wrestler like Colby Covington.
'Chaos' is a far more tenacious wrestler than Usman is, and Edwards' low-volume striking and habit of trying to force the perfect exchange could lead to issues against someone with Covington's output. While 'Rocky' can certainly punish him with elbows in the clinch and even counter him on his way in, it'll be difficult.
His counters to the southpaw jab will be of great importance against a southpaw like Colby Covington. But Leon Edwards' inferior gas tank and habit of exposing his back to defend takedowns will open him up to mat returns and even a rear-naked choke.
While 'Rocky' has a chance to continue his title reign, Covington is the likely winner via unanimous decision. Neither man will score a finish. Covington is not a finisher and is too durable for Edwards to knock out.