An early look at Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
Ilia Topuria showcased a boxing masterclass against Josh Emmett at UFC on ABC 5 this past Saturday, and it has made him the talk of the town in the UFC featherweight division. After all, it has been some time since Alexander Volkanovski has dealt with the potential of a compelling title challenger.
Still, there is no guarantee that 'El Matador' will compete for the 145-pound strap in his next fight. Similarly, there is no guarantee that Alexander Volkanovski will defeat Yair Rodriguez in the pair's upcoming scrap at UFC 290. If 'The Great' does lose to 'Pantera', an immediate rematch is more likely.
Thus, for a matchup between Ilia Topuria and Alexander Volkanovski to take place, the reigning featherweight king must defeat Rodriguez come July 8. Fortunately, 'The Great' is expected to win. So, with that being said, this is an early preview for a potential clash between Topuria and Volkanovski.
Fighter Profile: Ilia Topuria
Ilia Topuria is a boxer who lives and dies by the sword. The Georgian Spaniard is a pressure fighter with a knack for standing directly in the line of fire. He is able to do so because of his stance and use of the Philly Shell. The undefeated power-puncher stands somewhat sidewards, with his feet fept fairly wide apart.
This renders his midsection a smaller target, while also enabling him to dart in and out of exchanges of quickly. Furthermore, his use of shoulder-rolling means that he can stand directly in front of an aggressive opponent and deflect their incoming punches with his shoulders and elbows.
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria🔥
Masterclass performance by Topuria😮💨
https://t.co/ndQr6H3QAU
Meanwhile, as he's shoulder-rolling, he can return fire with his own counterpunches. Due to his combination of speed and natural knockout power, Ilia Topuria often flatlines his opponents during these sequences, especially by catching them with punches they don't see coming.
Against an opponent who won't come forward like the Josh Emmetts of the world, 'El Matador' will pressure them relentlessly by side-stepping with them to cut off their angles of escape. All the while, he batters his foe's body with his lead uppercut and left hook to the liver. This opens up punches over the top.
After having their midsections brutalized, his opponent often tuck their elbows inward and drop their arms to protect themselves, consequently exposing their head. By creating extended combinations that include punches to the body and head in quick succession, he shortens his opponent's options.
He also makes consistent use of his jab, both as a distance management tool and to draw out his opponent's offense so that he can shoulder-roll and counterpunch them. While he isn't known for his kicks, Ilia Topuria did show a new wrinkle in his game during his triumph last weekend.
#UFCLondonPERFECT right hand by @Topuriailia put him to SLEEP 😳 #UFCLondon https://t.co/zIv27aUg0O
He kicked more than he ever has before. Specifically, the 26-year old punished Josh Emmett with countless low kicks, but also struggled to defend himself against the Team Alpha Male product's own low kicks, mainly due to his wide, sidewards stance exposing the back of his lead leg.
Additionally, the prospective title challenger also has issues with his defensive footwork. Due to styling himself primarily as a pressure fighter, Ilia Topuria doesn't have the best evasive movement. He tends to retreat in a straight line, which can make him susceptible to being backed up to the fence.
Lastly, 'El Matador' has a tendency to drop his right hand after throwing body shots with his left hand, leaving his chin exposed. All in all, he is a vicious and effective striker. Despite his clear grappling skill and Greco-Roman background, they are unlikely to play a role in a bout with Volkanovski, and Topuria knows that.
After all, even the seemingly unstoppable Dagestani wrestling of Islam Makhachev was of little consequence to the Australian.
Fighter Profile: Alexander Volkanovski
As far as modern-day MMA is concerned, Alexander Volkanovski is arguably as skilled as a fighter can possibly be. The featherweight kingpin has no weak areas to speak of. He defended himself with supreme composure and technique on the mat against Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard Brian Ortega.
In the wrestling department, he contended with lightweight titleholder Islam Makhachev, who seemed all but invincible until his closely-contested clash with 'The Great'. As a striker, Alexander Volkanovski thoroughly outclassed Max Holloway, a man once hailed as the UFC's best boxer.
Volkanovski outboxing Holloway with ease https://t.co/Sx1AeSsJKn
While Volkanovski doesn't have the nuclear option that Topuria does, he is tireless and blindingly fast. He is able to overwhelm nearly everyone he faces and it all comes down to how well the Australian uses his feints to overload his opponent's decision-making process.
Feints, however, are useless without a real threat behind them. Thus, Volkanovski lands punishing strikes and uses feints. This forces his opponent into a reactive state as he ups his volume and feints. Eventually, a purely reactive opponent becomes offensively impotent as they retreat into a defensive shell.
If a fighter tries to build anything with their jab, they quickly learn just how adept 'The Great' is at undercutting the effectiveness of his opponent's jabs. First, he interrupts their jabs with his own, by jabbing simultaneously with them, robbing them of their ability to gauge distance and land follow-up strikes.
Great Stoppage from Herb Dean. Salute to the warrior The Korean Zombie! But Alexander The Great Volkanovski is truly the best.
#UFC273
https://t.co/4NIpV2ENwr
The line of logic is simple. If they can't land with their jab, which is their measuring tool, how will they know they can land a riskier, but more consequential strike like a right cross? Second, Volkanovski counters jabs with calf kicks. Jabs require a forward step, an extension of one's stance, which exposes the lead leg.
The moment the lead leg is exposed, Volkanovski lands his calf kicks, destabilizing his opponent's stance. Once his foe is forced to reset their stance and their footing is ill-positioned to both evade and absorb strikes, 'The Great' pounces with combinations over the top.
Like Ilia Topuria, Alexander Volkanovski has a Greco-Roman wrestling background. He is a strong offensive wrestler when he wants to be, and an exceptionally skilled defensive grappler when he needs to be, as seen during his loss against Islam Makhachev.
While the first half of his featherweight run was defined by clinching and pinning opponents to the fence, nowadays he rarely grapples unless he is forced to. Volkanovski prefers to strike above all else.
The Verdict
Ilia Topuria is an exciting challenger with a breadth of knockout power. He is undefeated and a fresh face. However, defeating Alexander Volkanovski is a wildly different task compared to defeating Josh Emmett. Ilia Topuria's defensive vulnerabilities might cost him in a potential title bout.
His wide stance renders him vulnerable to low kicks, which Volkanovski is skilled at using. Furthermore, the Australian's masterful interruption of his opponent's jabs would be instrumental against a fighter like Ilia Topuria, who uses his jab to measure distance, set up counters and build combinations.
Though a bout between the two men would surely be competitive, a specific outcome is expected. While Volkanovski isn't a reliable finisher, he is difficult to finish, so Ilia Topuria's nuclear option will have to hit the right button. With all that being said, Alexander Volkanovski would likely win via unanimous decision.