An early preview of Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley/Marlon 'Chito' Vera after his UFC 298 win over Henry Cejudo
With his UFC 298 win over Henry Cejudo, Merab Dvalishvili has marked himself as the undisputed number one contender at bantamweight. With UFC 299 on the horizon, a title fight with the winner of the Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera matchup awaits 'The Machine'.
Many have opined that Dvalishvili is the uncrowned champion at 135 pounds, and there is good reason behind the assertion. His combination of relentless wrestling, high-volume striking, and a bottomless gas tank render him a nightmare matchup for whoever emerges from UFC 299 with the bantamweight strap.
So how would a fight between him and either O'Malley or 'Chito' play out? What are the dynamics that would determine the winner? While there is no certainty over the potential outcome, there is a likelihood that 'The Machine' will end 2024 as the UFC bantamweight champion.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
Sean O'Malley fights from the outside, using his length and height to maintain a long range, enabling him to land his strikes from a distance from which his opponent can't return fire. To make up for the long distance, they often try to lunge into range or step forward to throw a kick.
Unfortunately, this causes O'Malley's opponent to either overextend on their own punches or kick ahead of themselves. Both scenarios leave 'Sugar's' opponent out of position, enabling him to bounce or lean just out of range and re-enter with a sniping counterpunch or combination as his foe unknowingly leads with their chin.
However, it isn't his only tool to dictate his opponent's reactions. O'Malley also uses his lead hand to paw at his foe's hands, gauging how far his opponent is from him, while also frustrating them by taking control of the space directly in front of their face, triggering their natural instinct to swat away anything close to their eyes.
Over time, his opponent lashes out by lunging forward and swinging to try and create breathing room. Instead, they end up running into O'Malley's right straight. But 'Sugar' isn't just a puncher, he is one of the most varied kickers in the UFC. He batters his foe with hard low kicks and stabbing front kicks to the body.
In response, his foes drop their hands to either catch or parry the kicks. But this allows O'Malley to fake a low or front kick before whipping his shin over the top for a head kick. His other setup also relies on his front kicks to the body, which, upon landing, causes his foe to stand upright, exposing them to kick over the top.
More than anything, though, he uses feints and stance-switching. The sheer variety of his feints, strikes and stance-switching causes his opponents to overreact to his movements when he's not even in range to land. This was instrumental in his win over Eddie Wineland.
So how would this all fair against Dvalishvili? 'The Machine' is a relentless takedown artist, whose wrestling skills are of such quality that he is capable of outwrestling Henry Cejudo. The streaking Georgian often draws his opponent's hands high by faking a right straight.
Once his opponent complies, he level changes, grabbing the back of their knee with his left hand to raise their leg to his hip, while then shoving them with his right hand to off-balance them, scoring a tricky takedown. He also has a slick reactive double-leg takedown he scores under his foe's punch when their hips are squared.
He combines his limitless cardio and high-level wrestling to shoot for a record-breaking number of takedowns, smothering his opponents. Dvalishvili is always on the front foot, swarming his foe with a high-volume of punches and takedown attempts to deprive them of any space.
Against a surgical counterpuncher like Petr Yan, 'The Machine' left him bereft of the time and space necessary to make any reads. The same fate could befall O'Malley, especially given that he won't be able to kick as freely against Dvalishvili, who could quickly catch a kick and convert it into a takedown.
Without his kicks, O'Malley would be limited. Furthermore, without breathing room to create setups for his strikes, 'Sugar' won't be able to inform his counterpunches. This would be even more pronounced if Dvalishvili smothers him, depriving his long limbs of the space and leverage to generate power in his punches.
This is also to say nothing of O'Malley's poor cardio, which declines halfway through round two. Against a tireless opponent like Dvalishvili over five rounds, it could prove disastrous for him, especially given his perceived vulnerability to wrestling.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Marlon Vera
In the event that Marlon Vera beats Sean O'Malley for a second time at UFC 299 and is crowned the new bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili will have another matchup against someone tailor-made for him. Like O'Malley, Vera's only hope of beating Dvalishvili is by early knockout.
Cory Sandhagen already revealed the severe limitations of 'Chito's' fighting style. The Ecuadorian is a very powerful striker, always in search of the knockout. However, he is a low-volume striker who sits back, patiently waiting for openings to land a blow of consequence.
His style relies on establishing a slow, somewhat listless rhythm. Thus, Vera spends long stretches of his fights being inactive, losing the points battle as he waits for his opponent to give him an opening. When it comes, 'Chito' crushes his foes with seismic blows.
However, because of how often he waits, sometimes the opening never comes and he finds himself losing bouts due to not doing anything to reliably win rounds. Against Dvalishvili, a high-volume fighter who is always active, this would almost certainly see Vera drop every round to the Georgian.
While 'The Machine' can be reckless when coming forward, something that could get him knocked out by either O'Malley or Vera, it relies too strongly on Dvalishvili making a mistake that 'Chito' himself can't force him out of him. Vera would likely sit back and wait while getting outstruck and outwrestled.
He is incredibly durable, hardly ever wearing a mark on his face. Furthermore, he has never been knocked down, let alone knocked out. In fact, he has never even been finished, so it is highly unlikely that Dvalishvili, who has only won thrice via knockout/TKO in 17 wins, would stop him with strikes.
Check out Merab Dvalishvili outwrestling Petr Yan:
Even an all-time great striker in José Aldo couldn't. Additionally, 'The Machine' has only ever won once by submission in his pre-UFC days. While he wouldn't finish Vera, barring an improbable set of circumstances, he would almost certainly beat him in a five-rounder.