How can Conor McGregor become UFC champion in 2024? Exploring the possibility
Conor McGregor has not been a UFC champion since 2018 when the promotion stripped him of his lightweight title due to inactivity. His featherweight crown, meanwhile, was taken from him in 2016. Nevertheless, 'The Notorious' remains synonymous with championship gold.
He is the UFC's first-ever simultaneous two-division champion and remains a verbal thorn in the side of several titleholders in the promotion, as he often takes to X to trash-talk them for one reason or another. He has even flirted with the idea of capturing a title in a third division, specifically welterweight.
However, if the Irishman were to return in pursuit of championship glory, his only realistic avenues are at lightweight and welterweight, for he is far too big to ever cut back down to featherweight again. But is it even possible for McGregor to capture a title at either lightweight or welterweight in 2024?
Conor McGregor's championship prospects at lightweight
The UFC 155-pound weight class is the last division to have been under Conor McGregor's thumb. So what are his chances of reclaiming lightweight gold with a new crop of hyper-skilled contenders? First, the Irishman is unranked, as he is nowhere in sight in the UFC's lightweight top 15. That, however, does not matter.
The promotion is not a pure meritocracy, nor has it ever been. Furthermore, McGregor is not held to the same standard that most fighters are. If he will indeed fight Michael Chandler, a win could serve McGregor well, even if the Irishman claims the bout will be at middleweight in June, which the UFC has not confirmed.
Despite 'Iron's' poor 1-3 run of form over his last four fights, he is still the #5 ranked lightweight in the world. So, a win over him could propel McGregor into title contention. Chandler is an ideal matchup for a sniping counterpuncher whose entire aim is to dupe his foes into lunging at him.
Chandler steps in deep, lunging face-first and exposing his chin with every punch he throws. Against McGregor, who specializes in bouncing right out of range to crack opponents with left straights as they storm forward, this could be disastrous. So Chandler is reckless enough to author his own knockout loss to McGregor.
As a number one contender, however, 'The Notorious' would face Islam Makhachev. This would not end well for the Irishman. The Dagestani lightweight champion is similar enough to Khabib Nurmagomedov, to whom the Irishman lost, to trouble him, and different enough to trouble him in new ways.
McGregor struggles with southpaws, of which Makhachev is one. In particular, the Irishman is vulnerable to low kicks, and Makhachev is a frequent kicker. The Irishman's wide stance aligns his lead leg with a southpaw opponent's rear-kicking leg. This is a defensive liability.
Since he turns his lead leg inward, his lead leg's calf is always exposed. While this has no bearing against orthodox foes since they can only land lead low kicks, which land on McGregor's shin, it is different against southpaws, who can target his hyper-exposed calf with their rear-leg kicks, as Dustin Poirier had.
Makhachev is also a patient striker. He does not lunge recklessly into range, so McGregor would have difficulty convincing him to launch himself into a sniping left straight. Furthermore, McGregor can't apply his usual relentless pressure, lest Makhachev duck under and take him down when his hips are squared.
This is an ever-present danger, given that Makhachev likes to pump out his jab, which McGregor would be eager to counter. Given how well AKA gameplan their fighters, it is likely that Makhachev would fake a jab to draw out McGregor's left straight and duck under for a takedown once McGregor commits to the punch.
And in the wrestling and grappling departments, the Irishman cannot contend with him. He will also be 36 years old this year and coming off a career-changing injury that left the likes of Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman looking like shells of their former selves upon their returns. McGregor may never be the same again.
Conor McGregor's championship prospects at welterweight
There is very little chance for Conor McGregor to capture championship gold at welterweight. The Irishman's greatest success as a fighter was in the featherweight division, where he became a champion and was undefeated. Much of that success was due to his size advantage over the 145-pounders.
However, outside of featherweight, his size advantage was no more. His ability to dictate range by fighting long does not work against larger foes, which is why he lost to Nate Diaz in their first bout at UFC 196. Every time the Irishman tried to land his punches, Diaz leaned back at the waist, causing McGregor to overextend.
This caused 'The Notorious' to be out of position, opening him up to counters. This does not bode well for him at welterweight, where the champion this year will be Leon Edwards, Belal Muhammad, or Shavkat Rakhmonov. None of those are winnable matchups for McGregor.
Check out Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman discuss a potential Conor McGregor title fight at welterweight:
Edwards is too large and long. Furthermore, his conservative fighting style dictates that he fights from long range and rarely commits to anything that could cause him to be in a position to be countered. Without anything to punish, McGregor would be forced to close the distance on someone much larger with an expert clinch game.
This is also to say nothing of Edwards being a southpaw kicker who recently punished Colby Covington's legs with low kicks at UFC 296. Alternatively, the Irishman would struggle with Muhammad due to the latter's combination of cardio and wrestling, as McGregor is known for tiring halfway through the second round.
This would leave him hyper-exposed to a relentless takedown artist who would drag him into deep waters. Additionally, 'Remember the Name' is highly defensive and difficult to land against. Lastly, against Rakhmonov, McGregor would be overextending on every strike.
'The Nomad' is tall and rangy, always standing just an inch beyond his foe's kicking range. Coupled with his use of feints, he could cause the Irishman to try and pounce at any perceived opening due to his own trigger-happy approach to fighting.
Ironically, this would cause McGregor to run into a thunderous counter informed by his reactions to Rakhmonov's feints. Naturally, 'The Nomad's' wrestling and grappling skills, which allowed him to become the first man to ever submit Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson, would have to be avoided by 'The Notorious.'
With everything taken into consideration, it is more than unlikely that the Irishman would not be able to defeat any of the potential UFC welterweight champions in 2024, and any plans to enthrone himself as a titleholder are next to impossible.