Ilia Topuria: The next Conor McGregor or the next Darren Till? Exploring the possibilities of what a win or loss at UFC 298 could mean for his career
This Saturday at UFC 298, Ilia Topuria will take part in the most important fight of his career, thus far. But if he is to be believed, it will be one of his easiest. Many, however, find his assertion difficult to stomach. After all, his opponent is defending UFC featherweight champion and pound-for-pound great, Alexander Volkanovski.
But the Georgian-Spaniard is nothing if not confident. He is a firm believer in Saturday's bout being a foregone conclusion, that Volkanovski is merely a footer in his story; a stepping stone on his journey to superstardom and championship success. Thus, he has talked a tremendous amount of trash ahead of the fight.
He has done so to such an extent that many believe he needs humbling. If he does lose to Volkanovski, the damage to his image and reputation will be catastrophic, given everything he has said and done. But if Topuria wins as he claims, he will author one of the all-time great rises in MMA.
What would a win mean for Ilia Topuria?
It is former UFC double champion Daniel Cormier's opinion that Ilia Topuria has emulated Conor McGregor's featherweight rise. At least, to a certain extent, and it is easy to see why. Nearly a decade ago, the Irishman challenged the legendary José Aldo for the Brazilian's then-featherweight strap.
Ahead of their matchup, their dynamic was eerily similar to Topuria and Volkanovski. Like the Australian, Aldo was the dominant champion who many believed was the world's #1 pound-for-pound fighter. He was respected by his peers and seemed invincible at 145 pounds.
To add to the similarities between Volkanovski and Aldo, the Brazilian great was on a lengthy win streak of 18 consecutive wins, with his last defeat taking place years prior in his early pre-UFC days at a heavier weight class; lightweight. Besides his losses to Islam Makhachev at lightweight, the Australian's record is similar.
Volkanovski has 23 consecutive wins at featherweight, and, again, barring his defeats to Makhachev, had only one prior loss in his early pre-UFC days... also at a heavier weight class; welterweight. Like Aldo at the time, Volkanovski is unbeaten at featherweight and respected by the general roster.
So the enormity of a win for Topuria would be unlike anything else in his career, especially since, like McGregor before him, he has belittled Volkanovski's skills and claimed to be so far superior to the rest of the division that he has drawn the ire of his fellow 145-pounders.
He is a young finisher, a trash talker getting under the champion's skin not by launching personal attacks, but simply by talking about how much better he believes himself to be. This was vintage featherweight McGregor before his descent into someone who uses personal matters and vitriol as weapons.
As did McGregor in the past, Topuria fashions himself as the future of MMA, both technique-wise and in the promotional sense. Furthermore, both men are beacons of light for European countries that are/were otherwise underrepresented in MMA. McGregor brought Ireland to the limelight by becoming its first UFC champion.
Topuria aims to do the same for Spain. If he does, if he backs up all of the trash talk by definitively beating Volkanovski as definitively as McGregor scored a first-round knockout over Aldo, after snapping pre-fight pictures with the featherweight belt like McGregor had, it could be a star-making moment.
He has the aura, he wears the suits, and he is predicting a finish and picking the round. He is already listing his record as 15–0, crowning himself a UFC champion on his Instagram bio and calling the shots for his future title reign. At the moment, it has all been branded as arrogance; the product of an ego spiraling out of control.
Check out Alexander Volkanovski catching Ilia Topuria wearing the featherweight title:
The same was said about McGregor before he flatlined the invincible Aldo in 13 seconds. If Topuria delivers as promised and becomes to the Spanish faithful what McGregor became to his Irish faithful, he could be the next big thing, the next great star that the UFC is always searching for to lead the new generation.
What would a loss mean for Ilia Topuria's career?
The UFC is always searching for a generational torchbearer, for someone to take on the mantle of Conor McGregor and Ronda Rousey. There have been many claimants, pale imitations, like the UFC's attempt to prop up Paige VanZant as a successor to 'Rowdy,' or Darren Till as the English iteration of the Irishman.
But it is yet to work so far. Ahead of his welterweight title fight with Tyron Woodley, 'The Gorilla' was supremely confident, just like Ilia Topuria is now. Now, while 'The Chosen One' was no José Aldo, he was still the reigning 170-pound champion and a proven top-tier fighter.
Before their bout, Till proclaimed himself the best fighter in the world, and that it was his destiny to claim UFC gold. He did not win that fight. In fact, he froze up when the lights shone brightest, and was on the receiving end of a knockdown before being submitted in round two to hand Woodley his easiest title defense.
Now, Till is no longer in the UFC, having parted ways with the promotion after going 1–5 in his last five fights, including the Woodley loss. He is regarded as a joke by the MMA fandom, a failure who talked a big game but never delivered. Someone closer to Chael Sonnen than 'The Notorious.'
In simple terms, Till is a glimpse at what a loss for Topuria could do to his career if he fails to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski this Saturday. He is already being criticized as delusional by the reigning champion, and even other featherweights on the roster.
Furthermore, the pressure he has taken on with all of his claims and pre-victory championship photoshoots is unreal. Volkanovski himself is delighted by the idea of forcing Topuria to leave UFC 298 with no title and a simple decision to make; to remove the 'UFC champion' and 15–0 lines from his Instagram bio.
It would be a crushing blow to Topuria's ego and disastrous for his image as a fighter. He'll be cited as an example of a loudmouth fighter who was humbled devastatingly. He'll become a laughingstock and the source of countless memes for months if he loses.
He will no longer be taken seriously as a fighter. Even if he goes on to eventually win the title in a post-Volkanovski world, everyone will remember him similarly to Raquel Pennington after her recent title win; she was still demolished by Amanda Nunes and only became a champion after the latter's retirement.
Topuria can't afford a loss, and he knows that. His aim at UFC 298 is to become a champion, the next McGregor, and not an embarrassment, not the next Till.