Is Alexander Volkanovski declining? Examining what his UFC 298 loss to Ilia Topuria means for his future in MMA
Things couldn't have gone worse for Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298. Not only did he lose his featherweight title to an undefeated challenger via brutal knockout, but he's now also on a two-fight losing streak; the first of his career. And the loss is something of a humiliation for Volkanovski.
Ahead of the fight, many—including Volkanovski himself—dismissed Topuria's chances of winning, doing so with such certainty that they characterized the Spaniard as delusional. But after UFC 298, Volkanovski walks home with a crushing loss to someone he previously felt was in over his head.
Given that he was coming off a previous knockout loss that happened as recently as Oct. 21, what could the long-term consequences be for Volkanovski after, not just losing, but suffering two back-to-back knockouts in just four months... and with his 36th birthday on the horizon?
Alexander Volkanovski's chin may very well be gone after UFC 298
It's important to note that Alexander Volkanovski has never had a granite chin. He has been dropped multiple times in his career, most notably in his pre-title win over Chad Mendes, and the second rematch with Max Holloway. What the Australian has always been, however, is stubborn and quick to recover.
Whenever he'd get rocked or suffer a knockdown, he would very quickly gather his bearings and exhibit supreme defensive awareness. Unfortunately, his ability to absorb blows is likely compromised after the last few months. First, there was his short-notice rematch with Islam Makhachev at UFC 294.
Check out Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway 2 highlights:
Volkanovski was knocked out by a brutal head kick from the Dagestani phenom. While he wasn't completely out cold, he was floored and ate a succession of hard shots as Makhachev poured on the ground-and-pound until the referee stepped in to spare Volkanovski from further punishment.
However, the damage was done, and at 35 years old, questions regarding Volkanovski's physical well-being arose. Following his emotional breakdown at the UFC 294 post-fight press conference, more questions arose about his well-being, this time related to his mental health.
He stressed how unwell he becomes without fighting to occupy his inner demons. So, within four months, he returned to action against the most powerful puncher he's ever faced in Ilia Topuria. Fans expressed concern over the quick turnaround, but Volkanovski, stubborn as always, brushed them off.
Check out Alexander Volkanovski's knockout loss to Islam Makhachev:
In the weeks leading up to UFC 298, 'The Great's' confidence was bulletproof. He was certain he'd teach Topuria a humbling lesson. The Spaniard, however, was undeterred, promising a finish and continuing to get under the then-champion's skin with his promotional stunts.
Come fight night, Topuria flattened Volkanovski in a manner never seen before. He landed a right hand with Volkanovski against the fence, and it knocked the Australian star completely out cold. He wasn't moving. The seismic power in Topuria's hands left him crumpled by the cage.
Two back-to-back knockouts across four months would be a career-changer for anyone. But for someone who has been dropped and rocked as many times as Volkanovski has, and who has been through wars with Mendes, Holloway and Makhachev, as well as nearing his 36th birthday? It's a certainty.
After the crushing knockout from Topuria, Volkanovski's ability to take punches may very well be permanently compromised. After all, he did disclose that he had experienced concussion symptoms for the very first time after being finished by Makhachev. So for this to happen four months afterward is a death sentence.
Unfortunately, Volkanovski disagrees with the sentiment, and will likely return too soon once again.
"That was a clean right hand. No matter who you are."
Check out Alexander Volkanovski disagree that he returned too quickly:
It could spell an even more disastrous decline for his chin.
Alexander Volkanovski has been, somewhat, figured out
Alexander Volkanovski is one of the most skilled fighters in the world. Truth be told, he may very well be the most skilled fighter in the sport today. Unfortunately, no mixed martial artist is truly perfect, even if 'The Great' comes close. And the few flaws that Volkanovski does have are all defensive.
It was Islam Makhachev who first realized that the former featherweight champion has a dangerous tendency to concede space, which he does largely due to his confidence in fighting off the back foot. Makhachev used this tendency to kick freely out in the open, without fearing his kicks being smothered or caught.
Check out Alexander Volkanovski's poor kick defense against Islam Makhachev:
This allowed him to set up his decisive head kick by landing several round kicks to the body. Volkanovski afforded him the time and space to do so, ultimately sealing his own fate, especially given how poorly the ex-featherweight champion defends against head kicks and round kicks from southpaws in general.
He raises just one hand—instead of two, making it a suboptimal barrier—to block the kick while turning his head away. This is inadvisable. First, a kick is too powerful for just one hand to block. Two, turning his head exposes its back for the kicking leg's foot to more easily wrap around.
This is what led to his knockout loss against Makhachev. However, against newly minted featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, 'The Great' paid for a different defensive lapse on the backfoot. While conceding the center and getting backed up to the fence, Volkanovski tried to fire off counters with his right hand.
Unfortunately, when doing so, his chin was raised and exposed, which is often the case whenever Volkanovski throws his right hand off the backfoot. The outcome was never in doubt against a powerful pressure fighter like Topuria. Volkanovski was knocked out cold.
Check out Ilia Topuria knocking out Alexander Volkanovski:
He is now on a two-fight losing streak, with both of his losses coming by way of knockout due to tendencies that his foes punished. Given the ample available footage on Volkanovski, it appears that he may have been figured out.
As more coaches pick up on his vulnerabilities, it could be a long downward spiral for one of the greatest fighters the sport has ever seen.