Is Ilia Topuria ready for a title fight? Exploring his chances against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298
UFC 298 is fast approaching, and for Ilia Topuria, it represents more than a chance to capture championship gold in MMA's top-tier promotion. It represents a rare opportunity to immortalize himself in the sport in a manner similar to Conor McGregor's legendary triumph over José Aldo.
Alexander Volkanovski is an all-time great featherweight and the No.3 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Despite his recent loss to Islam Makhachev, he is still an unstoppable force at 145 pounds, where he has been too skilled and too physical for everyone with whom he has crossed swords.
Everyone, however, appears invincible until they face their kryptonite, as Aldo did with McGregor. So, is Topuria the McGregor to Volkanovski's Aldo? Does he possess the tools to author a world-shattering upset come Feb. 17?
Comparing Ilia Topuria's rise to Alexander Volkanovski's
A common argument against Ilia Topuria's chances of dethroning Alexander Volkanovski is that, while possessing a breadth of potential, he isn't yet ready to overcome the type of challenge posed by the champion. However, how true is that line of thought? Does it even hold any water?
A glimpse at Volkanovski's record reveals that during his run toward the title, 'The Great' hadn't fought such high-level competition that he was undeniable. His first five UFC fights were against Yusuke Kasuya, Mizuto Hirota, Shane Young, Jeremy Kennedy, and Darren Elkins.
Besides Kennedy, who was undefeated prior to facing Volkanovski, and Elkins, who had a respectable record at the time, none of the foes he had faced were particularly noteworthy. It is Volkanovski's final two wins prior to finally challenging Max Holloway for featherweight gold that were truly impressive.
He bested a declining 2-3 Chad Mendes and all-time great 145-pounder José Aldo. No one regarded the Australian as a potential future champion at the time. By contrast, several of Topuria's six UFC opponents have been fairly impressive. Youssef Zalal, for example, was 10-2 prior to their bout.
Check out highlights of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chad Mendes in the clip below:
Damon Jackson had a respectable 18–3–1 (1) record, while Ryan Hall, Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt extraordinaire, was unbeaten in the UFC before facing 'El Matador.' Jai Herbert was 11-3 before being on the receiving end of a brutal knockout, and Bryce Mitchell was undefeated before his submission loss.
Lastly, the Georgian-Spaniard's masterclass against Josh Emmett, a former interim title challenger who was 18-3 prior and known for possessing nuclear punching power, was more than praiseworthy. While he has not fought anyone as decorated as Aldo, his overall run has fewer forgettable names than Volkanovski's.
Perhaps he isn't ready, but the same was thought of Volkanovski when he first faced Holloway. In fact, the same is often thought of countless fighters. For example, Chris Weidman was up against insurmountable odds when he took on Anderson Silva, as was Sean Strickland against Israel Adesanya.
Check out Ilia Topuria knocking down Josh Emmett in the clip below:
With Topuria in his physical prime at 27 while Volkanovski is 35, it may very well be time for a new generation to reign supreme.
The strategic and tactical battles of Ilia Topuria vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Ilia Topuria's upcoming clash with Alexander Volkanovski is one that has piqued the interest of the MMA fandom for multiple reasons. It pits an undefeated challenger with a high finishing rate against a long-reigning, seemingly invincible champion. But what dynamics will be at play when both men cross swords?
Volkanovski makes great use of low kicks to both destabilize his foe's stance and counter their jab, especially if they're both longer and taller than him. By using his longest weapon—his rear kicking leg—to attack the nearest target, which is his foe's lead leg, he can kick them out of their stance, rendering them briefly vulnerable.
Check out highlights of Alexander Volkanovski's striking in the clip below:
With his opponent now forced to reset their stance, Volkanovski pounces with combinations over the top while their footing is suboptimal for them to absorb blows. Additionally, as aforementioned, 'The Great' uses his low kicks to counter the jab. A good jab requires the extension of one's stance.
To land a textbook jab, the jabber must step in with the punch. This, however, exposes the lead leg, especially the calf, to low kicks, allowing Volkanovski to interrupt the jab. By landing low kicks, he also prevents his opponents from building off of the jab with combinations.
Similarly, he uses his own jab to interrupt his opponent's. With his speed and timing, the 145-pound kingpin jabs with his foe, landing his at the same time as theirs. Alternatively, he throws a well-timed overhand right that loops over the top of his opponent's jab to clip them after he stance-switches into range.
All of this, especially his low kicks, will serve him well against Topuria. The Georgian-Spaniard not only uses a wide, bladed stance but builds off of his jab as well. Topuria's wide stance means his lead leg is often turned inward, exposing his calf to low kicks.
If he opts to stand at a range where Volkanovski's low kicks will be effective, he may very well find his offense stifled. However, if Topuria does as he did against Josh Emmett, the bout could play out differently. Against the Team Alpha Male product, Topuria made excellent use of the Philly Shell.
Specifically, he used it to stand right in the line of fire. If he smothers Volkanovski's kicks and forces him into a pocket boxing battle, he could use his Philly Shell to deflect his foe's punches with his shoulders and elbows. Furthermore, he can return fire with his own counterpunches after every deflected Volkanovski blow.
Given the Australian star's overreliance on his chin and toughness in the pocket, it could play out poorly for him against a fast power puncher like Topuria. Also, the height between both men will play a factor. Volkanovski is accustomed to battling taller foes who can't commit to body punches due to the height difference.
Check out Ilia Topuria knocking out Jai Herbert in the clip below:
Topuria, however, is as close to Volkanovski's height as it gets. He often batters his opponent's midsection with a lead uppercut and left hook to the liver, both of which open up punches over the top. Unfortunately, Topuria has several defensive liabilities that could cost him.
Due to being a born and bred pressure fighter, his defensive footwork is underdeveloped. He retreats in a straight line, which Volkanovski's team has surely noticed, rendering him somewhat easy to back up. He also tends to drop his right hand after throwing body shots with his left, leaving his chin exposed.
It will be a game of inches when both lock horns. But there is also an X-factor. In fact, there are two. Volkanovski is 35, the age at which fighters often undergo massive declines in the lighter divisions. Furthermore, he is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Islam Makhachev, which he suffered last October.
That he is already returning in February could prove to be a mistake. He may be returning too soon, and against a foe with crushing power, no less. Perhaps Topuria will be proven right. His time is now, while Volkanovski's has come to an end.