Is Merab Dvalishvili the uncrowned UFC bantamweight champion? Exploring his title-winning potential if he gets past Henry Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili is currently scheduled to take part in the most important fight of his career, which could open the door for a fight of even greater importance. This Saturday, at UFC 298, 'The Machine' will take on former two-division champion Henry Cejudo. A win over the Olympian could earn him a bantamweight title shot.
It's almost criminal that he hasn't previously been in title contention. A large chunk of that has to do with how harmful his friendship with Aljamain Sterling was to his career. 'Funk Master' once reigned as the UFC bantamweight champion, and the two friends absolutely refused to fight each other for the title.
So, Dvalishvili spent nearly three years as a title gatekeeper for his friend, taking on top contenders for no gain at all. But now, Sterling has moved up to featherweight, freeing Dvalishvili to pursue his lifelong dream. The question, however, is can be actually win the title now that it's within sight?
Merab Dvalishvili's current obstacle is Henry Cejudo
Much has been made about Henry Cejudo's freestyle wrestling accolades. He is an Olympic gold medalist in the sport and was the youngest American to ever win Olympic gold in freestyle wrestling at the time. However, those skills haven't translated to mat dominance in MMA.
While Cejudo is an elite wrestler, he isn't an unstoppable force who takes his foes down at will and holds them hostage à la Khabib Nurmagomedov. He is a tricky wrestler, using the light bounce of his Shotokan stance to keep his opponents guessing; they never know if a bounce means a karate blitz or level change.
So, a takedown often comes when his foe least expects it. He is also clever in the clinch, occasionally using inside trips to unbalance his opponent. Unfortunately, he has subpar top control. Even against foes he can pin to the mat, he does little else besides a few guard passes. Naturally, he has no submission wins.
Dvalishvili is not as accomplished a wrestler, but he is a better all-around grappler than Cejudo. He is an expert not just in wrestling, but Judo and Sambo as well, owning a black belt in the Japanese martial art and being a Combat Sambo World Championships silver medalist.
In short, he is an even trickier wrestler than Cejudo. Like many, he often gauges his opponent's timing to duck under their punches for double-leg takedowns when their hips are squared. This is a frightening proposition for someone like Cejudo, whose striking game depends on his karate blitz.
Furthermore, Dvalishvili also fakes a right straight to draw his foe's hands high, only for him to then level change and wrap his left hand around their leg, raising it to his hip while shoving his opponent with his right hand to unbalance and dunk them. But like Cejudo, he isn't the best at controlling his opponent.
That, however, is because his game is based around pace. He shoots for an absurd amount of takedowns due to his bottomless gas tank. His goal is to shoot a high volume of takedowns, while throwing punches in bunches, all to overload his opponent's decision-making process.
In short, he forces his opponent into a purely reactive state. And if all one does is react, they will eventually react incorrectly. This may very well befall Cejudo due to his Shotokan base, as he hangs back waiting for his opponent to step forward so that he can lunge in with his straight right at the same time.
Unfortunately, Dvalishvili's tireless pace and constant volume won't afford Cejudo the time to make any useful reads. Furthermore, Cejudo's cardio, while serviceable, isn't up to par with Dvalishvili's, who may very well bully him against the fence for a unanimous decision win.
So what does this all mean for the Georgian phenom's title-winning prospects?
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
Merab Dvalishvili and reigning bantamweight title champion Sean O'Malley are similar in that they both force their opponents into purely reactive states. Dvalishvili uses constant volume and relentless wrestling to suffocate his foes, while O'Malley uses a deep bag of feints to keep his opponents on edge.
However, in a battle of grapplers vs. strikers, strikers often come up short. In a title fight over five rounds, 'Sugar,' who conceded takedowns against Petr Yan, would struggle to keep Dvalishvili off him. While he may very well snipe 'The Machine' on his way inside, it his only avenue to victory as he won't win a battle of attrition.
This is especially true given how badly O'Malley gasses out in fights that progress past round two. Tiring against Dvalishvili is just about the worst scenario for anyone, as the Georgian will drown anyone who can't match his pace, even foes with supreme cardio like Yan.
Few in the promotion can match Dvalishvili's cardio. After all, he holds the record for the most takedowns landed in UFC history, tied with all-time great Demetrious Johnson. More than that, he holds the record for the most takedowns scored in a single bout, which he managed against Yan, a former champion.
It is exhausting fighting Dvalishvili, having to constantly defend takedowns and always force standups from the ones conceded is draining. And as good a striker as O'Malley is, he isn't the first world-class striker the Georgian has faced, neither is 'No Mercy.' After all, 'The Machine' completely overwhelmed the great José Aldo.
So is it a guarantee that he would beat O'Malley? No. It isn't even a guarantee that he will beat Henry Cejudo this Saturday. However, he has as good a chance as anyone at bantamweight, and it will be difficult not to regard him as the champion's nightmare matchup if he gets past 'Triple C.'