Is the UFC middleweight division now ruled by underdogs? Analyzing Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland’s successes against on-paper favorites
The UFC middleweight division has experienced a rollercoaster of changes in recent memory. No longer is Israel Adesanya its dominant champion, stringing together title defense after title defense. Instead, he was dethroned by someone who was never conceived as a threat - Sean Strickland.
The idea that Strickland could defeat a fighter of Adesanya's caliber, especially on short notice, was unthinkable in the minds of everyone besides Strickland himself and his inner circle. Yet, 'Tarzan' went on to author the biggest upset in UFC middleweight history, beating the champion from pillar to post for five rounds.
He subsequently made his first title defense against Dricus du Plessis, a fighter whose entire UFC run to the top was overlooked and misjudged. It is genuine to wonder if du Plessis has ever fought anyone, sans Strickland, who didn't underestimate him. Yet, he is now the middleweight champion.
So what happened? Is there a surge of underdogs and the unremarkable at 185 pounds?
The UFC middleweight division then vs. now
For much of its history, the UFC middleweight division was dominated by fighters widely regarded as the best 185-pounders of the time, or at the very least, fighters whose legacies dwarf those of today. When Rich Franklin reigned supreme at middleweight, he was thought to be the best.
After Anderson Silva dethroned him and penned one of the greatest championship streaks of all time, 'The Spider' was universally considered the sport's greatest-ever fighter. He was subsequently dethroned by Chris Weidman, a then-unbeaten phenom with the strongest wrestling the division had ever seen up until that point.
Weidman went on to defend his title thrice, first against Silva in a historic rematch, then twice more against Brazilian legends Lyoto Machida and Vítor Belfort. Afterward, the All-American's reign was ended by a then-streaking Luke Rockhold, who seemed to have everything for a long tenure as champion.
Rockhold was a powerful and slick kicker, had strong wrestling, was massive for the division, and had the most lethal combination of Brazilian jiu-jitsu and ground-and-pound in middleweight history. Yet, he then lost his title to Michael Bisping, of all people, a gutsy, well-rounded but ultimately unremarkable fighter.
'The Count' defended his title against Dan Henderson and marked a brief interruption in the order of dominance in the division. That order was restored when he was finished by all-time great Georges St-Pierre, whose relinquishing of the belt gave way to the uber-skilled Robert Whittaker.
Not long afterward, Israel Adesanya demolished 'The Reaper' to enthrone himself as the middleweight champion. His combination of elite striking and flair drew comparisons to Silva, especially as he began successfully defending his title. 'The Last Stylebender' dominated the division and seemed unstoppable.
No one came close to his level of striking, and he was too quick-footed, too sharp a ring/cage general for anyone to outwrestle. The UFC was forced to bring over the only man with the level of kickboxing that matched, even eclipsed his - former two-division Glory Kickboxing champion Alex Pereira.
Pereira and Adesanya were rivals, and 'Poatan' quickly entered title contention. He TKO'd Adesanya to become a champion, but an immediate rematch saw Adesanya reclaim the title with an emphatic knockout. Up until this point in the Franklin era, the division was ruled by the best, with Bisping being an exception.
But 185 pounds is different now. Last year, Strickland was behind arguably the biggest upset of 2023 when he dominated Adesanya for five rounds on short notice to capture middleweight gold. He was a historic betting underdog ahead of the bout and not a fighter regarded as special by anyone.
He has a sharp jab, Philly Shell, a bottomless gas tank, and little else of note. He is neither powerful nor spectacular and more likely to win via decision than anything else. He still became a champion, but in his first title defense, he dropped the belt to du Plessis, an oft-underestimated fighter.
Du Plessis doesn't have the most aesthetically pleasing technique. His style is awkward, akin to someone button-mashing in a video game, that is, if pure optics are taken into account. He is actually a highly strategic fighter with a much higher fight IQ than he is given credit for.
Minutes after a grueling fight, he is capable of recounting specific exchanges in his fights, during which he was forced to make a quick adjustment of some sort. However, due to the optics of his style, many disregarded him during his rise, believing that once he started fighting elite competition, he'd lose.
Many believed he'd lose to Derek Brunson, one of the division's best-ever gatekeepers. Instead, du Plessis beat him so severely that Brunson's corner threw in the towel. Next, fans were certain that he was in for a lopsided loss against Whittaker, a former champion and consistent top-three fighter.
Instead, du Plessis stunned his detractors by running through 'The Reaper' en route to a second-round TKO. It was after that that he dethroned Strickland to become the middleweight champion. In back-to-back title fights, fighters widely dismissed by fans and fellow fighters alike have captured UFC gold.
However, more than that, there are four other fighters occupying the middleweight division who, on paper, leave a lot to be desired yet remain ranked in the top 10. Marvin Vettori is the highest-ranked of the class, at #5. He is elite at nothing, neither striking nor wrestling, and has only won one UFC fight via finish.
No one expects him to accomplish anything of note in the division, and he is currently 2–3 in his last five fights. Below him is Paulo Costa, who he previously faced. Costa, despite being ranked #6, has no wins over anyone ranked in the top 15. In fact, he has no wins over anyone who is even currently in the UFC.
That is to say nothing of the fact that he is also 1–2 in his last three fights. He has a more aesthetic fighting style than many others, but it has been completely ineffective against the only two fighters he faced who are still in the UFC. Then there is Roman Dolidze, who has never impressed fans but is ranked #9.
He has one win over a top-10 foe in Jack Hermansson but is currently on a two-fight losing streak. Speaking of Hermansson, he is another, ranked at #10, and he has no wins over anyone in the top 10 and just one over someone currently ranked in the top 15.
Besides Whittaker, Adesanya, and, depending on how they perform against top competition, possibly Bo Nickal and Khamzat Chimaev, the middleweight division largely consists of fighters that lack the world-beater or 'elite' aura in the eyes of fans.
This is a far cry from when the likes of Silva, Belfort, Machida, Weidman, Brunson, Rockhold, and more all occupied the same division. Instead, it is now ruled by the oft-underestimated underdogs.