Michael Chandler shouldn't wait for Conor McGregor again: Analyzing 'Iron's' UFC career path
Michael Chandler has been aiming to fight Conor McGregor at welterweight for some time now. For many, a fight with the Irishman is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It promises fighters a life-changing amount of money, while a win earns fame and recognition from the mainstream audience.
Khabib Nurmagomedov became one of the sport's biggest stars, in part, due to the infamy of his fight with 'The Notorious.' Similarly, Dustin Poirier, who has always had the respect of the hardcore MMA fanbase, became a beloved star after completing his legendary trilogy with the Irishman.
Unfortunately, Chandler shouldn't continue holding out for a bout with McGregor now that their UFC 303 clash has been nixed. The Irishman is out with an undisclosed injury, and 'Iron' has already wasted too much time waiting for him. He must now look forward, and to do so, he must look elsewhere.
Conor McGregor may never fight again
It's understandable for Michael Chandler to express continued faith in Conor McGregor's octagon return. However, their entire matchup has been odd from the very beginning. The two men were opposing coaches on 'The Ultimate Fighter 31' in early 2023, but their bout was only given an official date on April 2024.
Amid everything, McGregor's attention seemed to be elsewhere, as the Irishman challenged KSI to a boxing match, flirted with the idea of facing Nate Diaz in their trilogy at UFC 306, and had an impromptu face-off with Mike Perry at BKFC 41. Now, the Irishman is injured.
While the details surrounding McGregor's injuries have been kept under wraps, the injury was still enough for McGregor, who had never pulled out of a fight prior, to withdraw from UFC 303. The Irishman has fought with a damaged ACL, a foot recovering from a bone breakage, and micro-fractures in his shin.
For him to pull out appears to imply that the injury is more serious than the reports are willing to say. Moreover, it is rumored to be an injury on the same leg that he snapped in the Dustin Poirier trilogy. For another injury to have compounded the near-career-ending one he suffered at UFC 264 isn't good.
In addition to his injury woes, McGregor had also been drinking heavily and partying frequently instead of focusing on training and dieting for his bout with Chandler before its cancelation. He doesn't appear to be taking his fitness seriously, even if he releases the occasional sparring footage.
To train, and then snap pictures of himself drinking at nightclubs isn't a recipe for an optimal camp, least of all since he partly blamed his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov on his drinking prior. So, why do the same ahead of a Chandler bout, when he has three years of cage-rust due to a career-threatening injury? Opening up on his withdrawal on X, McGregor said:
"Very tough to be ruled out of my scheduled return bout. I picked up an injury prior to the press conference that required more time to heal than was available to me."
Worst of all, McGregor turns 36 years old next month. Taking all of this into consideration, he may never make his return at all. So, for Chandler to hold out for a fight that runs the risk of never taking place would be hopeful at best, and disastrous at worst. He would have wasted his UFC career.
Michael Chandler has already spent too much time on the sidelines
Michael Chandler spent most of his MMA career fighting under the Bellator banner, where he became a three-time lightweight champion. Thus, he entered the UFC in the twilight of his career, and his run in the promotion hasn't exactly been all that successful from a fight perspective.
Chandler has certainly made money and earned acclaim as one of the most exciting lightweights in the world due to his promos and reckless fighting style, but he is 2-3 in his five fights in the UFC. To make matters worse, the only opponents he has managed to beat are Dan Hooker and Tony Ferguson.
Hooker, while a respectable fighter, is not elite, is ranked outside of the top 10, and will never come close to touching UFC gold. Ferguson, meanwhile, was once great, but was over-the-hill and on a three-fight losing streak by the time he faced Chandler. He is now on the worst losing streak in UFC history, with seven losses.
Everyone else Chandler has faced in the UFC, he has lost to. Incidentally, the three people to whom he has lost—Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Dustin Poirier—are all ranked inside the top five. 'Iron' simply can't beat the true elites in his division, but the gap between him and them will widen.
This is because Chandler isn't fighting. The division is moving and he isn't. Part of the value he brings to the UFC is that, while he doesn't always win, he always entertains. But when was the last time he entertained? He hasn't fought since Nov. 12, 2022, which is just a few months away from being two years ago.
Chandler is neither injured nor ill. Moreover, the longer he stays out of the game, the more everyone else will evolve, such that by the time he returns, he won't be able to entertain by forcing his opponents into slugfests. Instead, he'll get beaten more one-sidedly and start losing his market value.
It's one thing to lose to top five foes in hard-fought wars. It's another thing entirely to get run through. And at 38 years old with cage-rust from being out for two years, Chandler is running out of time, especially in a division as unforgiving to aging fighters as lightweight.
Lastly, 'Iron' still believes he can work his way into title contention. This becomes more unlikely the longer he stays out and ages. By next April, he will be 39, and depending on how things go for McGregor, potentially still waiting for the Irishman to return, all while missing out on other big matchups.
After a certain point, he'll have missed more fights than a McGregor paycheck can cover, and it wouldn't have been worth the wait, especially if he loses the bout as many expect.