Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal predictions: Picking the winners
The Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal predictions are here. The two men, both ex-UFC welterweights, will look to settle their differences and score a massive payday when they lock horns tomorrow. Only, instead of MMA, the pair will meet inside the squared circle of boxing.
Despite serving as the marquee attraction of the card, they aren't the only fighters worth watching, as Saturday's event features former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis taking on a fellow mixed martial artist in Chris Avilla, who also happens to be Diaz's teammate.
Other fights include a super middleweight scrap between Daniel Jacobs and Shane Mosley Jr. With a variety of matchups on the card, who will emerge victorious?
#1. Light heavyweight: Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal
Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal aren't strangers to one another, having previously competed for the inaugural 'BMF' championship at UFC 244. Despite its controversial ending, the bout was defined by Masvidal's complete domination of Diaz, so what will their rematch look like five years later?
Under the boxing rule set, neither man will benefit from grappling, kicking, elbowing, or more clinching. As a boxer, Diaz has always been more bluster than substance. He is often said to spar world champion boxers, but his skill isn't exceptional, even in MMA.
Instead, he relies largely on his length, toughness, and cardio. Offensively, Diaz operates behind a high guard, marching his opponents down with an awkward, sideward stance. The benefit of his stance is that it allows him to flick out jabs well and move back and forth with ease, making up for his lack of speed.
Defensively, it allows him to slide back and lean away from punches, moving with his opponent's blows, much like he did when he first faced Conor McGregor. This chips away at the power of his foe's punches. Meanwhile, his high guard enables him to shield himself as he pressures his opponent toward the ropes.
When doing so, he uses his jab to draw counters from his opponent, only to pull back, then lean forward with a counterpunch of his own, usually a left cross or right hook: a counter to his opponent's counter. While not powerful, he was still able to hurt reigning UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards with his combinations.
Unfortunately, Diaz's insistence on using a high guard leaves him exceedingly vulnerable to body shots. Furthermore, he is a slow starter who lacks the lateral footwork to cut off his opponent's angles of escape, which causes him to follow his foe in a straight line and stumble into the clinch.
Diaz also has an alarming habit of turning away from body shots, exposing his entire back to his opponent. None of this will serve him well against the likes of Masvidal, who is a better boxer. 'Gamebred' spent most of his fighting career being concerned with defense.
He was hard to hit, often pivoting away and slipping on the inside or outside of incoming punches without doing much in retaliation. Masvidal was content to simply admire his defensive work before inevitably being on the wrong end of tough split-decisions.
However, after some time away from the octagon, the original 'BMF' champion became a more aggressive fighter. First, he used his defensive skills and footwork to draw out his opponent's strikes with feints and fakes, gauging their timing and analyzing their punches of choice for the scenarios he created.
Once his opponent's tendencies are clear, Masvidal goes on the offense. This was best illustrated when he knocked out Darren Till with a shifting combination after he figured out the Englishman's left straight. More often than not, 'Gamebred' uses a jab to test the waters, rarely committing his full weight to it.
He throws his jab with a light bounce, touching and prodding. His jab will be of significant use against Diaz due to the latter's tendency to lean away from punches. Masvidal frequently doubles and even triples his jab, which is designed to punish taller foes who lean away from everything.
The more Diaz leans away, the worse his footing and balance. Eventually, he can't lean back any further, finding himself in a poor position to absorb blows. Masvidal can accomplish this by doubling and tripling his jab before coming over the top with a hard right cross or hook.
Additionally, Masvidal is a vicious body puncher, usually slipping on the outside of a jab, which Diaz likes throwing, before digging into the body hooks and uppercuts. Furthermore, Diaz's habit of stumbling into the clinch will expose him even more to Masvidal's body shots, as he frequently rips his foe's torso with combinations.
Like most fighters with granite chins, Diaz is weak to the body and reacts poorly when hit in the torso. His habit of exposing his back afterward will also make it easier for him to backup to the ropes. While Masvidal left the UFC on a four-fight losing streak, he should still comfortably beat Diaz, who is slower and older.
The Prediction: Jorge Masvidal via unanimous decision
#2. Super middleweight: Daniel Jacobs vs. Shane Mosley Jr.
The feature fight on the Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal card consists of the hard-nosed and experienced Daniel Jacobs taking on Shane Mosley Jr., the progeny of his more legendary namesake. Jacobs is a talented boxer with a unique skill set. He is a thinking man's boxer, equally capable of in-fighting as he is out-fighting.
From a distance, he pivots at angles, sniping his opponent, but is fully equipped for wars on the inside. He is an offensive dynamo whose output is second to none, enabling him to drag all-time great power-puncher Gennady Golovkin to the brink, and forcing a similarly tough fight out of the great Canelo Alvarez.
He overwhelms his opponent's decision-making process with volume, forcing them into a reactionary shell. Eventually, his opponent reacts incorrectly. Unfortunately, age has caught up to him, and his punches have lost their sting. He should still be good enough to beat Mosley Jr., though, who is nothing like his father.
If Jacobs loses to Mosley Jr., he should consider hanging up the gloves. That is not a defeat he should be taking.
The Prediction: Daniel Jacobs via majority decision
#3. The rest of the Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal card predictions
Picks are in bold.
Lightweight: Amada Vargas vs. Sean Garcia
Light heavyweight: Chris Avilla vs. Anthony Pettis
Lightweight: Devin Cushing vs. Manuel Correa
Welterweight: Alan Sanchez vs. Louie Lopez
Super middleweight: Kenneth Lopez vs. Andres Martinez
Lightweight: Curmel Moton vs. Nikolai Buzolin
Welterweight: Jose Aguayo vs. Bryce Logan
Heavyweight: Steven Dunn vs. Gabriel Aguilar Costa
Super lightweight: Luciano Ramos vs. Dan Hernandez