2 reasons Anderson Silva can beat Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and 2 reasons he can’t
Tonight will mark Anderson Silva's third foray into boxing. With a record of 1-1 and having not boxed professionally in 16 years, Silva's performance tonight remains difficult to predict. Widely regarded as one of the most outstanding fighters in UFC history, the record-setting Silva became one of the deadliest strikers MMA had ever seen.
For Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., this will be his first fight since his TKO victory against Jeyson Minda late last year. Despite an increasingly bad reputation for his antics in and outside of the ring, Chavez boasts an impressive 52-5 win-loss record. 'The Son of the Legend' is a seasoned combatant with fast hands and a wealth of experience in the sport.
So, can a 46 year-old Anderson Silva successfully transition into boxing with a big win tonight? Many are not betting in favor of the former UFC middleweight kingpin. Some, however, have made cases for a potential upset. Here are two reasons Anderson Silva can win tonight and two reasons Chavez will.
#2 Silva can win: Making weight
Tonight’s fight will be contested at 82.5kg (182lbs). For Silva, making such a weight is standard operating procedure. Silva spent the majority of his best years in the UFC’s middleweight division (185lbs). There, Silva set a new record for the longest title reign in the promotion’s history at 2,457 days. His celebrated reign included an incredible 16-consecutive wins, another record that is yet to be broken.
Chavez, on the other hand, scored the biggest world title win of his career at the 160lbs mark. In June 2011, Chavez took down Sebastian Zbik for the WBC middleweight title. Chavez’s cracks at scoring gold in heavier weight classes have not gone well.
It's not the first time Chavez has failed to make weight. Two pounds over the set limit for his fight with Silva, Chavez has now forfeited $100k to his opponent. In a weight class he has little experience in (and has clearly struggled to make it to), Chavez’s performance could be inhibited and slower than usual. Silva will also be coming in with a considerable reach advantage.
#2. Silva can’t win: wear and tear
At 46 years old, ’The Spider’ is far past his athletic prime. As phenomenal as he was throughout the noughties and early 2010s, Silva has been a shadow of his former self since the UFC 168 injury. At UFC 162, a showboating Silva refused to take challenger Chris Weidman seriously. Dancing about the octagon with his hands behind his back, the arrogant Silva had his lights punched out in round two.
Having learned his lesson, he displayed considerably more focus heading into their UFC 168 rematch. Sadly for Silva, Weidman had learned a lesson too: the importance of checking kicks. Less than two minutes into round two, Silva’s shin bone cracked in half against Weidman’s knee. After more than a year spent recuperating, Silva returned and has since eaten five losses. Noticeably slower in the ring, many pundits have gone as far as saying Silva’s post-leg break fights have tainted his legacy (bar, of course, the win he picked up on Derek Brunson).
The younger, quicker, less beat-up Chavez has the advantage in this regard.
#1. Silva can win: Chavez’s behavior
For all of his skill and athleticism, Chavez has frequently hampered himself over the years due to his bad behavior. This is not the first time he has failed to make weight in time for a fight. Unfortunately, going over on the scales is far from the worst thing Chavez has done.
The 35 year old has often shown a lack of commitment and discipline when it comes to training. In turn, the once prodigious Chavez has suffered several losses in recent years. Worse still, he’s exhibited a dreadful habit of asking out of fights. The first instance of this came in his 2015 fight with Andrzej Fonfara when he quit the bout after nine rounds. Even more infamous was his fifth round forfeit against Daniel Jacobs in 2019. Citing a mid-fight injury, Chavez was mercilessly booed and even pilloried with rubbish and beer by the furious crowd.
Chavez’s technical decision loss to Mario Abel Cazares last year continued this trend. Chavez packed it in during the sixth round on account of a nasty cut he sustained during the fight. If Silva manages to get some good shots in, could Chavez ask out once again?
#1. Silva can’t win: Different skill sets
In a fighting career spanning 24 years, Silva has only fought in boxing twice before this. The first, in May 1998, was a first-round corner stoppage loss to Osmar Luiz Teixeira. The second, in August 2005, was a second round KO victory against Julio Cesar de Jesus. Silva's performances were unexceptional and nowhere near the level of quality he displayed throughout his MMA career.
Anderson Silva’s earlier martial arts training was focused on forms such as Muay Thai, Capoeira and Taekwondo. While this combination allowed Silva to be light on his feet and deadly with his kicks, none of it prepared him for the sweet science of boxing. By the time he did add boxing to his repertoire, Silva was already an MMA fighter with instincts and strategies better suited to the octagon. While his jab can be deadly and his counter-striking exceptional, Silva’s instincts and muscle memory will likely still be fine tuned to MMA.
Chavez, meanwhile, has spent his whole life boxing and has never had to worry about kicks, ground game or submissions. His instincts and movements in the ring are exclusively tailored to pugilism. With a vastly superior level of experience, Chavez may make Silva’s boxing record 1-2 before all is said and done.