UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
The UFC heads to Charlotte, North Carolina, this weekend for its latest Fight Night event. On paper, at least, this looks to be a solid card.
UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida features a key heavyweight headliner, and will also see numerous former main event stars in action.
With some solid name value up and down the card, this should be a show worth checking out.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida.
#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
With Sergei Pavlovich now very much considered a title contender, the UFC’s heavyweight division is generally thin on prospects. That’s what makes Jailton Almeida such a fascinating fighter to watch.
‘Malhadinho’ isn’t the biggest heavyweight. He stands at 6’3” and weighs around 225 pounds, and has often fought at 205 pounds. But he’s looked nothing short of phenomenal in his brief octagon career and a win here, particularly with a finish, would send his hype train into overdrive.
The Brazilian won his first three bouts in the octagon last year and then destroyed veteran Shamil Abdurakhimov with punches in January to climb into the top 15. Overall, he’s an explosive, powerful athlete who does his best work on the ground, and thus far, he’s shown no issue putting his foes there.
Jailton Almeida STEAMROLLS another heavyweight!🇧🇷 Jailton Almeida STEAMROLLS another heavyweight!
One way traffic from Malhadinho! #UFC283 https://t.co/MwMUFhNcLq
This will be his first step up to face a truly elite-level foe, but it is worth noting that while Jairzinho Rozenstruik is ranked at No.9 in the division, he’s probably the best match for Almeida, too.
The native of Suriname is a tremendous, pinpoint striker with one-hit knockout power, as the likes of Alistair Overeem, Andrei Arlovski and Chris Daukaus are well aware.
However, he has often struggled with takedowns during his octagon career, and while his strikes come quickly, he’s also slightly plodding, meaning he can be caught by a quicker opponent.
Almeida would be silly to attempt to strike with ‘Bigi Boy’, as he’d likely be outgunned. But if he can plant Rozenstruik on his back, it’s hard to imagine him not winning.
After all, Rozenstruik’s ground defense looked negligible against Curtis Blaydes, and he was rarely able to escape to his feet.
‘Bigi Boy’ can win this fight if he can catch Almeida coming in, but the Brazilian seems to be the faster, more explosive man, and unless he’s not thinking straight, then a safe takedown will be open.
Given what we’ve seen of ‘Malhadinho’ before, he’s likely to become a title contender, and his path to the gold should begin here, probably by TKO on the ground.
The Pick: Almeida via second-round TKO
#2. UFC light heavyweight bout: Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker
In many ways, given the lengthy tenure that both of these fighters have had with the UFC, it’s a surprise that they haven’t fought before.
Of the two, Anthony Smith has been around longer. ‘Lionheart’ saw his second stint with the promotion begin way back in February 2016, but it wasn’t until a move to 205 pounds in 2018 that he really hit his stride.
Three wins in a row led him to a title shot, and while he failed to beat Jon Jones, he’s been a staple of the top of the division since. However, he most recently saw a winning streak snapped by Magomed Ankalaev, suffered a leg injury during the fight, and hasn’t fought since.
Johnny Walker, on the other hand, may just be entering his prime. At 31, he’s only three years younger than Smith, but after losing two fights in 2022, he’s calmed down the wildman act and has picked up excellent wins over Ion Cutelaba and Paul Craig.
🤯 @JOHNNYWALKER JUST TORE THE ROOF OFF OF @JEUNESSEARENA!!! #UFC283 https://t.co/fe0NDeRwPi
Given that Smith is currently ranked at No.5 in the division, a win for Walker would probably propel him right into title contention. So can he pull it off?
It’s hard to say. ‘Lionheart’ doesn’t have all that many weaknesses at 205 pounds. He hits hard, he can take a shot, and he rarely finds himself in trouble on the ground. In fact, his submission game is highly underrated.
However, he does lack the explosive nature of Walker, who seems to be capable of taking out any opponent with a wild rush.
The issue for Walker here is that coming in too wildly against Smith would probably be a mistake. He’s proven to be not all that durable, and if Smith catches an opponent, he’s usually ruthless in putting them away.
Overall, then, this one could come down to whichever man strikes first. The fact that Walker will enjoy a 6” reach advantage, is the younger and less shopworn fighter, and isn’t coming off a major injury could sway it, but it could go either way.
The Pick: Walker via second-round TKO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a fascinating welterweight bout, Daniel Rodriguez faces Ian Garry. Garry has long been seen as a high-level prospect, with a wicked striking game that has seen him compared to a young Conor McGregor.
STILL UNDEFEATED 👊🇮🇪
@IanGarryMMA #UFC285 https://t.co/ta0OjwAH05
‘The Future’ is already 4-0 in the octagon, but this will be his toughest test yet. Rodriguez has nine bouts in the UFC to his name and has beaten the likes of Li Jingliang and Mike Perry.
Overall, we can expect to see a striking match here, and it’s a tricky one to pick, particularly as ‘D-Rod’ has never been knocked out. However, Garry does seem to possess the quicker hands and is the bigger, rangier man too. The pick, therefore is Garry via decision.
In a strawweight clash, Mackenzie Dern takes on Angela Hill. This one is a classic striker vs. grappler bout, with Dern likely to want the fight on the ground and ‘Overkill’ determined to keep it standing.
The winner, then, should be decided by whether Dern can get Hill to the ground. Dern is a decent, improving striker, but ‘Overkill’ possesses some excellent combinations and is difficult to hit, too.
However, when she has been taken to the ground before she hasn’t shown the kind of defense needed to survive with a grappler the caliber of Dern, and more to the point, she doesn’t possess one-shot power.
Essentially, then, if Dern lands one takedown in this fight, it should be over – so the smart money is on her to win via submission.
Finally, Alex Morono squares off with Tim Means in a welterweight tilt. Were Means in his prime, this fight would look good for him. At his best, ‘The Dirty Bird’ was an expert at using his wild range to abuse opponents both from distance and in the clinch.
However, he’s now 39 years old and just isn’t as durable as he once was, with his last win coming almost two years ago. Morono isn’t a special fighter as such, but he is remarkably tough, hits hard and is happy to wade into exchanges without fear.
‘The Great White’ will need to be careful here, but the pick is still Morono via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Court McGee
UFC heavyweight bout: Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman
UFC bantamweight bout: Cody Stamann vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
UFC light heavyweight bout: Carlos Ulberg vs. Ihor Potieria
UFC lightweight bout: Natan Levy vs. Pete Rodriguez
UFC flyweight bout: Kim Ji Yeon vs. Mandy Bohm
UFC welterweight bout: Bryan Battle vs. Gabriel Green
UFC bantamweight bout: Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Tainara Lisboa