UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks
The UFC has got off to a good start in 2019 in terms of its TV broadcasts, as the ESPN deal seems to be working better than their former one with Fox did and thus far the shows produced have been pretty great. Pay-per-view has been another matter, though – UFC 233 was cancelled and UFC 234 was one of the weakest cards the promotion had ever put together.
That should change this weekend with UFC 235. This is a truly stacked pay-per-view, with two big title fights on top, the debut of one of the highest rated fighters to have never stepped into the Octagon, and numerous top prospects and veterans up and down the card.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith.
#1 Jon Jones vs. Anthony Smith
The main event of UFC 235 will see Anthony Smith challenge Jon Jones for the UFC Light-Heavyweight title in what might be one of the most unexpected title fights in promotional history. When Smith made his debut at 185lbs back in 2013 and was submitted by Antonio Braga Neto, nobody could’ve predicted that six years later, he’d be fighting for gold at 205lbs. Essentially, ‘Lionheart’ is a journeyman, and he’s taken a journeyman’s route to the top.
Perhaps that’s underselling Smith’s current rise, though. After that loss to Neto, he was released by the UFC only to go 7-1 on the regional circuit before returning. A 2-1 stretch in 2016 suggested he would settle back into a role as a solid gatekeeper, but a 2017 win over Hector Lombard made fans open their eyes a little more. Smith then lost to Thiago Santos at the beginning of 2018, but then moved to 205lbs and put together 3 wins to capture this title shot.
Evidently struggling to get to 185lbs, Smith looks well put together at his new weight, a rangy, lean fighter who throws devastating strikes both from range and from inside the clinch. Knees and elbows appear to be Smith’s most dangerous weapons, as it was those that he used to take out former champions Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua in 2018. He’s also no mug on the ground, as we saw when he submitted Volkan Oezdemir in October.
The problem for Smith here is that he’s up against one of the very best fighters of all time in Jon Jones. ‘Bones’ has of course been surrounded by controversy for the past few years – most notably due to a string of positive drug tests that culminated in a year-long suspension from 2017 to 2018. Most recently, a trace amount of the banned substance turanibol – supposedly a leftover from the previous dose that’d got him suspended – forced the UFC to move UFC 232 from Las Vegas to Los Angeles when the Nevada State Athletic Commission refused to licence him.
None of that seemed to matter when he destroyed Alexander Gustafsson to regain the title he never truly lost, though. In 2013 Gustafsson had pushed him harder than any other fighter, but in 2018 he stood no chance against Jones, who seems better than ever in all areas. Nobody uses their range quite like Jones, and nobody has been able to outwrestle or outgrapple him either.
Realistically then, there’s nothing to suggest Smith can do the impossible. Nobody can take his run to the top away from him, but it’s also hard to deny that it’s been built on shaky foundations. His wins over Evans and Shogun gave him two big names on his ledger, but both men are miles past their prime and Evans retired shortly after that loss. And Oezdemir had only been out of the first round once before facing Smith, and clearly struggled in that fight too.
Worse still, Smith isn’t the kind of fighter who could potentially catch an all-time great like Jones and put him away with something sudden. He doesn’t have the one-shot kill power of an Anthony Johnson, as most of his TKO victories have come using flurries from close range – essentially Jones’ wheelhouse. Nor is he really good enough on the ground to surprise Jones with a submission.
More to the point, he’s not exactly invulnerable to being badly hurt by strikes or on the ground. We saw Thiago Santos destroy him just a year ago with a violent flurry, for instance, and of his 13 losses, he’s been finished 12 times. Admittedly, he appears to be more durable at 205lbs than he did at 185lbs, but against an offensive virtuoso like Jones that doesn’t mean a lot.
I think this is a commendable fight for Jones in the sense that other UFC champions would probably balk at fighting a lesser name like Smith and would probably attempt to hold out for a so-called ‘money fight’. It’s a refreshing attitude and probably points at Jones wanting to get back into the promotion’s good books. This feels to me very much like a ‘challenger-of-the-month’ type deal though, and if Smith even makes it out of the second round I’d be gobsmacked.
The Pick: Jones via second-round TKO