UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier - Predictions and Picks
Well, it’s been a long time coming but by virtue of its main event alone, UFC 242 is probably the biggest UFC show of 2019. Sure, the card isn’t anywhere near as deep as say, UFC 235 or UFC 239, but with Conor McGregor sidelined, Khabib Nurmagomedov is probably the promotion’s biggest star right now and so we could be looking at a big-time box office hit here.
‘The Eagle’ defends his UFC Lightweight title against interim champ Dustin Poirier in the main event, and due to his presence as well as the card taking place in Abu Dhabi – the first UFC show there since April 2014 – there’s a heavy Russian/Dagestani flavor up and down the show, making it a fascinating one indeed.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier.
#1 Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier
Well, one thing must be said for this one: there’s been so much speculation surrounding who Nurmagomedov would face next ever since he defeated Conor McGregor last October that it’s actually refreshing to see the route the UFC have taken. The promotion could’ve attempted to book a cash-grab fight like an instant rematch with the Irishman or a ‘superfight’ with the now-retired Georges St-Pierre, but instead, we’ve got a fight made purely on merit, and that’s a breath of fresh air.
Sure, this might not be a so-called ‘money fight’ as Poirier hasn’t quite entered the realm of superstardom yet, but it does represent the best two 155lbers on the planet – well, two of the best three, as I still feel Tony Ferguson would have a good chance against either of them – facing off against each other. Both men have been on amazing runs, but one run must end on Saturday. But who will it be?
It almost seems like a waste of time to break down Nurmagomedov’s skills at this point simply because every man and his dog knows what he’s coming into the Octagon to do. ‘The Eagle’ has become a decent – but not great – striker, but his bread and butter are in his grappling. Nurmagomedov comes into every fight with the same plan; to take his opponent down and beat them up en route to a TKO, decision, or merciful submission should it become available.
His stand-up game has improved from the wild style he once deployed into a more boxing-heavy attack – see his nice use of the jab against Al Iaquinta – but the Dagestani is still somewhat robotic on the feet and as Michael Johnson and McGregor showed before they lost to him on the ground, he is hittable. Even so, due to the power he packs in his punches, outright trading with him could be a mistake; just ask McGregor, who was knocked down by a wild Nurmagomedov right hand.
Poirier, on the other hand, is a little more unpredictable. Earlier in his career, he was a go-for-broke fighter in all areas, a brawler who would also hunt for submissions and was happy to take the fight to any area. More recently though he’s developed into one of the best strikers in the Lightweight division, building a dangerous game around insane levels of pressure boxing and a scary tendency to sense his opponent beginning to wilt, which allows him to suddenly turn up the heat and push for a finish.
Of course, the issue with that style is that ‘The Diamond’ tends to take a lot of punishment before his victories. He’s currently on a 4-fight win streak, but he took some serious shots from all 4 of those opponents before winning and when you factor in who they were – Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway – it becomes a little worrying. Don’t forget that he’s also been knocked out cleanly twice, too, by McGregor and Michael Johnson. For now, though, Poirier seems to be able to weather punishment well.
Basically then, I could see this fight playing out in two ways, and both hinge on a simple issue: is Khabib’s cardio good enough for him to simply take Poirier down and punish him en route to a five-round decision? I just can’t see ‘The Eagle’ finishing Poirier early on and although he could definitely hurt him badly in the first few rounds, Poirier isn’t the type to simply wilt and fall on his sword as Edson Barboza did in his fight with Khabib.
That means Khabib is likely to throw everything he’s got in an attempt to finish ‘The Diamond’, and for me, I’ve got a sneaky feeling it’s going to lead to his own downfall. If Khabib gets at all tired come the fourth and fifth rounds, then Poirier is still going to be there and at the current time, I don’t think there’s anyone better at spotting a hurt and/or tired opponent and being able to turn up the heat at just the right moment.
I could be proven wrong here, of course; Khabib is a truly great fighter and nobody has solved the riddle in over a decade, but I’m going with Poirier here. I think he’ll take a beating in the first three rounds, but by the time the fourth rolls around he’ll inexplicably be the fresher man, and once that happens, I think he’ll become the predator, land the better shots, and shock everyone by putting Khabib away to claim the title.
The Pick: Poirier via fifth-round TKO