UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks
Incredibly, against all odds, it looks like UFC 249 is actually going ahead. Sure, the line-up looks nothing like the one that was initially planned. We’ve lost Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson again. But somehow, UFC President Dana White has been able to put together a 12-fight card.
Whether the show should be going ahead is another matter; as of writing the UFC has yet to announce the venue it has secured, but will MMA fans be willing to watch? Of course.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje.
#1 Interim Lightweight Title: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
Okay, so this isn’t Khabib vs. Ferguson, but it’s still an excellent fight worthy of main eventing any UFC card. Should it be for an interim title? In all honesty, there’s no need, but the UFC does love introducing them. And should Ferguson have taken such a dangerous fight on late notice? Well, no, but if he wasn’t willing to do crazy things, he wouldn’t be Tony Ferguson.
So how do these two stack up? For me, the overall clash of styles favors Ferguson, but there are at least a couple of caveats that mean Gaethje has a major chance of winning too.
Firstly, the argument for Ferguson. Obviously ‘El Cucuy’ has won his last 12 fights, beating the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone, and Anthony Pettis. He’s only gone the distance three times during that run, and is equally dangerous both standing and on the ground, from seemingly any position too.
More tellingly for this fight, Ferguson has two other major strengths. Firstly, his cardio is second-to-none in the 155lbs division. And it was the pace he was able to push that largely broke opponents like Cerrone and Dos Anjos.
And secondly, he’s absolutely as tough as nails, seemingly able to walk through big shots and also recover from being hurt – as we saw against Pettis, Kevin Lee and Lando Vannata.
How does this mean he matches with Gaethje? Well, ‘The Highlight’ has destroyed his last 3 opponents, but before that, he was beaten by both Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Both fights were notable by the fact that it was Alvarez and Poirier who put the pressure on Gaethje, rather than the other way around.
Essentially, if Gaethje is allowed to stalk and walk his opponent down, he’s got a far better chance of landing a kill-shot – usually favoring a big right hand. If an opponent can turn the tables on him, though, he becomes far less dangerous. And while his cardio is solid, he has been known to tire out – something that we’ve never seen from Ferguson.
Therefore, if Ferguson can pressure him as he did to Dos Anjos, Cerrone and Pettis, then he should be able to win this fight. He can do this by forcing Gaethje to wilt under his strikes as Poirier and Alvarez did. Another way could be to eventually wear him down enough to latch onto a submission – perhaps snapping him down into a choke variant, as he’s fond of.
There are a couple of caveats, though. Gaethje arguably hits harder than any other fighter in the Lightweight division. And, while Ferguson’s chin has looked solid enough before, you never know when it’s going to suddenly fail. Ferguson has certainly taken plenty of cumulative damage over the years.
‘El Cucuy’ also spent a lot of 2018 on the shelf rehabbing a serious injury to his knee. And while that wouldn’t usually be a talking point, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Gaethje has some of the best leg kicks in the game. Will he target Ferguson’s surgically repaired knee? Quite possibly, and if he does, he could set up that big right hand.
Despite that though, I’ve got to go with Ferguson here. He’s faced heavy hitters before and faced guys who like to stalk their opponent before and has always come through. And more to the point, he’s had a full training camp while Gaethje is taking this on very late notice. Hopefully, we finally get ‘El Cucuy’ against Khabib before 2020 is out – even if it’s on the Island of Uncle Dana.
The Pick: Ferguson via fourth-round submission