UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal - Predictions and Picks
After months of hype, the UFC is finally heading to ‘Fight Island’ for the first time this weekend. The island in question is Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island, and the first show there looks like a blockbuster – UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal.
With three title fights on tap – as well as a rematch of one of last year’s title fights – this is one of the most loaded cards in UFC history.
With just six days remaining before it goes down, it’s time to simply hope that it holds together – especially after the UFC has already had to rescue the main event.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal.
#1 UFC World Welterweight Title: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
It’s insane how quickly things can change in the world of the UFC. Just three days ago, Usman was all set to defend his UFC Welterweight title at this show against Gilbert Burns. Masvidal, meanwhile, was in the midst of a very public spat with the promotion over his paycheque.
That all changed last week. On Friday we found out that Burns had tested positive for COVID-19 and was off the card. By Saturday, it appeared that the show would go ahead with Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway as its new main event. And then on Sunday, it was announced that the UFC had come to terms with Masvidal to take the fight, contingent on ‘Gamebred’ testing negative for COVID-19.
Well, we now know that Masvidal has passed that test, and so the fight, incredibly, is on. How much the UFC have had to pony up to get him to take the fight is unknown. And with no official athletic commission overseeing the event, we may never know.
What we do know is that ‘Gamebred’ is coming off one of the best calendar years in UFC history. 2019 saw Masvidal take out Darren Till before breaking the record for the UFC’s fastest knockout by destroying Ben Askren in just five seconds. And finally, he defeated Nate Diaz to become the UFC’s first ‘BMF’ champion in November.
Right now, there’s arguably no hotter fighter in the UFC than the American. But can he beat Usman to become the Welterweight champion?
In terms of his strengths, Masvidal is perhaps the best pure boxer in the UFC. His jab is one of the best in MMA and he uses it to set up his combinations, going to the body and head with equal measure. He’s capable of fighting well coming forward as well as on the counter, and most recently he’s shown devastating abilities in the clinch too.
‘Gamebred’ is also remarkably tough, with one of the best chins in the entire sport. In a 48-fight career, he’s been stopped just once – and that was a questionable stoppage back in 2008. This all begs the question – if he’s so good, then why does he have 13 career losses?
Well, earlier in his career, Masvidal had a horrible tendency to simply throw fights away due to apparent overconfidence. That’s not to say he’d come into fights looking too cocky. It was more a case that he’d begin to cruise in fights that he was arguably winning, allowing an opponent to take over and edge him on the scorecards.
That’s how he lost to Lorenz Larkin, Al Iaquinta, and arguably Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez too.
That issue seems to have been solved, for now, making ‘Gamebred’ a far more dangerous proposition. However, he did lose twice in 2017. One of those losses came to Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson – a horrible match for any striking-based fighter. And the other was to Demian Maia, who was able to out-grapple Masvidal.
Essentially then, he’s now a fighter with very few weaknesses and a lot of dangerous strengths. Unfortunately, he’s faced with perhaps the most dominant Welterweight in MMA since Georges St-Pierre was in his prime a decade ago.
There are a lot of parallels between GSP and Usman, in fact. It’s easy to forget now, but GSP’s initial success wasn’t made possible by his technical striking or even his wrestling – it stemmed more from his brute strength.
St-Pierre was always recognized as arguably the best wrestler in MMA, despite not having an amateur background like some of his opponents. However, that wrestling largely stemmed from a mix of his athleticism, power, and strength rather than pure skill.
Usman is similar. An NCAA Division II national champion, on paper he should’ve been at a disadvantage against Tyron Woodley – an accomplished NCAA Division I All-American. And yet Usman out-grappled him with ease.
Simply put, there’s nobody in the sport right now with the same mix of strength, athleticism, cardio, and pressuring ability that ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ possesses.
Other wrestlers can be resisted, but not Usman. Every time he’s got hold of his opponent in the UFC, they’ve been unable to stop him from ragdolling them. Even powerful fighters like Woodley and Emil Weber Meek have been powerless against his bullying style.
Worryingly for the rest of the division, Usman is not just a wrestler anymore. A longer Welterweight who possesses a 76” reach, ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is now a dangerous striker, too.
Is he as technical a boxer as Masvidal? Well, no. He took plenty of shots from Colby Covington in their fight, but equally, he was able to punish ‘Chaos’ with a stiff jab and in particular, some hard body shots.
However, it’s worth noting that Usman was largely forced to strike with Covington, who possessed similar levels of wrestling skill. Against Masvidal, the threat of the takedown will almost certainly be more of a factor – meaning Usman can probably afford to strike a little more freely.
Perhaps the closest parallel to be made for this fight is Usman’s 2018 win over Rafael Dos Anjos. Like Masvidal, Dos Anjos is a very accomplished striker, albeit not quite as good a boxer. And Usman – using the threat of his grappling – simply walked him down throughout the fight.
He was not only able to ragdoll him from the clinch, but he was also able to unload on him with his own combinations.
For me then, unless Masvidal can take out Usman very early in the fight, I don’t see him being able to succeed here. Few fighters can put the pressure on quite like ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’. And while Masvidal is a solid grappler – he submitted Michael Chiesa in 2013 – it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to pull out something similar against Usman.
Can Usman finish ‘Gamebred’? It’s doubtful that he’ll be able to knock him out, but over five rounds, there’s every chance that he can wear him down enough for a submission or a TKO.
Masvidal is on the run of his life and he’s certainly earned this opportunity, but I just don’t see anyone beating Usman right now.
The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision