UFC 265: 'Bon Gamin' vs. 'The Black Beast' - Fight analysis, prediction, betting odds
Expect fireworks this weekend at UFC 265 as slick technician Ciryl 'Bon Gamin' Gane (9-0-0) clashes with heavyweight bodysnatcher Derrick 'The Black Beast' Lewis (25-7-0-1).
UFC 265 hosts a roster of brilliant fights this weekend. Headlining the card, puzzling French fighter Ciyrl Gane tests his expertise against the man with dynamite in his hands, Derrick Lewis. The fight is for the UFC interim heavyweight championship title, and the winner will soon face the UFC heavyweight champion himself, Francis Ngannou.
In this article, we will discuss the fighters and how they match up against one another, our prediction for the fight's outcome, and the betting odds for the matchup.
UFC 265 Gane vs. Lewis: Fight overview
Rarely do we see such an intriguing matchup in the UFC's heavyweight division. The consensus is that Ciryl Gane is a fantastic technical heavyweight with superb standup and an outstanding ground game; however, there are doubts regarding his ability to handle stronger opponents.
This doubt followed Gane into his bouts with Rozenstruik and Volkov, and although he won those fights with relative ease, it follows him into this fight too. His biggest test to date is the bullish Derrick Lewis, a heavyweight headhunter renowned for his resilience, formidable power, and uncanny ability to turn fights on their head.
Lewis has always had an aura of uncertainty going into his fights. On many occasions, we've seen Lewis match up against fighters with superior technique, only for him to apply pressure, overcome adversity and win by spectacular knockout. The power he contains in his hands should warrant respect from any heavyweight willing to challenge him.
We see two disparities in this matchup, one being the advantage in experience Lewis has over Gane and the other being the superb level of striking from Gane compared to Lewis.
UFC 265 Gane vs. Lewis: Fight analysis
Akin to Jon Jones, Gane is an outside fighter, utilizing a heavily leg-based striking game. Gane likes to chip away with quick, effective leg kicks and hits to the body, occasionally mixing up with roundhouse kicks to the torso or feints to set up strikes to the body and head.
Gane is primarily a Muay Thai fighter and is exceptional in the clinch, whether it involves clinch striking or position control. With the advantage of being the bigger man, we can expect Gane to initiate the clinch to nullify Lewis' blitz style of striking. Lewis would be the stronger man in this position, but Gane's superior technique has proven to subdue the power of stronger opponents in the past.
Gane's style creates problems for Lewis. Gane doesn't take risks, doesn't overextend, and his method of fighting punishes forward-moving pressure fighters like Lewis with long-range low kicks and round kicks.
As we've seen from Lewis, he likes to plant his lead leg deep in his opponent's guard to set up huge knockout strikes. This is something he may struggle to achieve against somebody like Gane, who will cancel out this forward pressure with those constant kicks.
Lewis has also shown vulnerability to midsection attacks, evident in his fights with Travis Browne when shots to the body visibly hurt Lewis, and his most recent loss to Junior Dos Santos (who Gane has since dispatched), in which a devastating body shot contributed to his defeat.
Gane loves to set up that spectacular left roundhouse to the liver, and we fully anticipate Gane punishing Lewis with these kicks on the night.
UFC 265: Ciryl Gane vs. Derrick Lewis - Conclusion & prediction
UFC 265's main event is going to be a tense fight; Lewis holds the power to shut the lights off of any heavyweight fighter on the UFC roster, even late into the championship rounds like he did with Volkov. He will retain this puncher's chance as long as the fight continues. The consensus is that if Lewis wins, it's going to be by KO.
We believe Gane will stay at range, nullifying Lewis' forward pressure with kicks, and will punish a fading Black Beast with shots to the body as the fight proceeds. We also expect Gane to initiate clinch exchanges to subdue blitz attempts from Lewis. Gane won't get sloppy as the fight goes on, as we've seen in his fight with Volkov.
Ultimately, Gane wins with pressure and punishment. He won't expose himself to Lewis' bombs. Gane will punish Lewis' plodding style with long-range kicks and will cancel out Lewis' puncher's chance with clinchwork against the fence.
Gane cruises to an easy UD, akin to his fights with Rozenstruik and Volkov. But don't be surprised if Gane finishes Lewis with bodywork.
Prediction: Ciryl Gane via. Unanimous Decision
UFC 265 Gane vs. Lewis: Betting odds
Gane is the favorite to win the fight outright, per Oddschecker, with odds as high as -400 and as low as -300, making Gane a heavy favorite to win. With the best odds, if you bet $100, you'd receive $128.
Lewis is a live underdog with odds as high as +300 and as low as +275. With the best odds, if you bet $100, you would receive $400. With the knockout power, Lewis has, these odds should be very enticing.
Who do you expect to take the interim heavyweight strap this weekend at UFC 265? Comment below!