UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov - Predictions and Picks
If last weekend’s UFC card was never going to capture anyone’s imagination, this week’s is a massive improvement. Is it a high-end pay-per-view level show? Not quite, but it’s definitely one of the stronger free-TV cards that the promotion has put together in some time.
The top two fights may well have major title implications in the near future, while practically every fight on the card sounds like it’s worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov.
#1 Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov
With the UFC finally clearing up the title picture at Heavyweight – Stipe Miocic will now defend his title against Daniel Cormier at UFC 252, with the winner likely defending against Francis Ngannou in late 2020 – this fight makes perfect sense.
Blaydes has only ever lost to Ngannou in his professional career. He’s 9-2 in the UFC with wins over everyone from Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem to Mark Hunt and Aleksei Oleinik. Volkov meanwhile has just one loss on his UFC ledger too – that last-gasp TKO at the hands of Derrick Lewis.
Essentially, the winner of this one can probably afford to sit and wait for whoever’s the champ at the end of 2020, and hope for a title fight in early 2021.
The big question to be answered in this fight is obviously how Volkov deals with Blaydes’ incredible wrestling game. There have been more credentialed wrestlers in the UFC’s Heavyweight division – Brock Lesnar, Daniel Cormier, Cain Velasquez – but it’s actually ‘Razor’ who has the record for the most takedowns in the division’s history.
The only men to have been able to fend off his takedown? Ngannou, who knocked Blaydes out before a shot was attempted, and Dos Santos, who ended up with other issues entirely that we’ll get to in a second.
That issue is that where Blaydes’ striking lagged miles behind his wrestling when he first came into the UFC, he’s developed it now to the point where it’s a very genuine weapon for him. Dos Santos was able to stop the takedown, but in doing so it left him open to that striking, and sure enough, ‘Razor’ turned his lights out in the second round.
Volkov essentially hasn’t fought a really strong wrestler since his 2013 encounter with Vitaly Minakov in Bellator. He’s beaten strong grapplers like Fabricio Werdum and Roy Nelson since, but neither of them have takedowns like Blaydes.
Where ‘Drago’ does excel is in using his height and reach to punish his opponents from the outside. It’s how he took out Werdum, Nelson, Stefan Struve and most recently, Greg Hardy.
The Russian prefers to sit behind his jab and pick at his opponent, while his traditional karate background means he’s also dangerous with kicks – particularly the front kick to the body that he used to great effect against Hardy and against Derrick Lewis before he was stopped.
For a big man, Volkov’s footwork is also excellent. He’s difficult for more concussive strikers to corral, and his cardio is strong too, as we haven’t really seen him get tired, even in the later rounds.
Does that give him enough to pick Blaydes apart for five rounds, though? For me it doesn’t.
Firstly, I’m not sure how well his takedown defense will stand up. As a taller fighter at 6’7”, he tends to stand tall in the Octagon as well, meaning Blaydes will likely find a big target in terms of shooting underneath his punches to get to a double leg.
And secondly, if he does focus entirely on takedown defense, it leaves him wide open to a sledgehammer shot from ‘Razor’, who hits as hard as any other man in the division, save for perhaps Ngannou. And Volkov’s chin is certainly not bulletproof – he was knocked out by Lewis of course, but also found himself in big trouble in his UFC debut against Tim Johnson.
For ‘Drago’ to win this one, he might have to pull off something spectacular – like time a Donald Cerrone-esque knee to the head as Blaydes shoots in for a takedown. Unless he can do that, I just can’t see how he’ll stop the takedown, and once Blaydes has someone down, his ground-and-pound is absolutely ruthless.
The Pick: Blaydes via second round TKO