UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar - Predictions and Picks
The UFC returns to ESPN this weekend with a show that’s unsurprisingly been badly hit by injuries yet again.
In this case, the co-main event of Yoel Romero vs. Uriah Hall has been scrapped, reportedly to be moved to a later event. Overall, this isn’t the strongest card, but in these COVID-19 hit times, what can you do?
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar.
#1 UFC Bantamweight division: Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar
Initially, this fight was pegged to take place back in July, but a positive COVID-19 test for Munhoz put paid to that. The UFC decided to keep the pairing together though, moving it to the main event of this card. Is it a solid fight? For sure.
It seems hard to believe, but Munhoz has been in the UFC for six years now. ‘The Young Punisher’ was once considered one of the hottest prospects in the Bantamweight division, and after a debut loss to Raphael Assuncao at UFC 170, he’s basically lived up to the lofty expectations put on him.
The Brazilian is 8-4 in the UFC, with his losses all coming against high-level title contenders like Jimmie Rivera, John Dodson, and most recently, Aljamain Sterling. His best win? Quite clearly, his knockout of Cody Garbrandt at UFC 235 was a win that looked set to propel him to a potential title shot before Sterling derailed him three months later.
Edgar has, of course, been in the UFC for far longer again. Debuting way back in 2007, ‘The Answer’ was undersized for 155lbs but proved that size wasn’t everything by doing the unthinkable and unseating BJ Penn for the UFC Lightweight title in 2010.
A lot has changed since then, though. After dropping his title in 2012, Edgar moved down to 145lbs, but a pair of losses to Jose Aldo kept him away from the UFC Featherweight title. The native of New Jersey remained a perennial title contender despite this, but recent years have seen him hit a slide.
An injury kept him out for a year between 2017 and 2018, and upon his return, he suffered the first KO loss of his career at the hands of Brian Ortega at UFC 222. He rebounded by beating Cub Swanson, but then spent another year on the shelf before losing to both Max Holloway and Chan Sung Jung in 2019.
This fight then represents what could be the final roll of the dice for ‘The Answer’. If he can beat Munhoz in his first go-around at 135lbs, then he’ll instantly find himself in UFC title contention at Bantamweight. Any kind of loss though means that observers will be talking up a potential retirement. After all, he’s 39 in October and has already been through a lifetime of wars in his 26-fight UFC career.
In his prime, this would’ve been a favorable match for ‘The Answer’. Munhoz is an excellent, well-rounded fighter. He hits hard, has an excellent boxing game, and is dangerous on the ground, particularly with the guillotine choke. However, he’s not as good an athlete as Edgar, doesn’t have the kind of footwork and movement that’d allow him to outstrike the New Jersey native, and he’s not as good a wrestler or scrambler.
The issue for Edgar is that simply put, he’s not in his prime anymore. I’m not even sure he’s as good as he was when he beat Swanson in pretty unimpressive fashion back in 2018 in fact. Sure, he can still move around pretty well and is still an excellent grappler, but it’s easy to forget that even at his peak, he tended to take a lot of damage from his opponents.
Fans will obviously remember his crazy fights with Gray Maynard at UFC 125 and 136, but he also took plenty of punishment from Aldo in their two fights, as well as from Penn and Benson Henderson. And since that 2018 loss to Ortega, his chin has looked shakier than ever.
Sure, he went the distance with Holloway, but Jung was able to put him away in less than four minutes and dropped him numerous times in the process.
The hope, I guess, would be that at 135lbs, his opponents won’t be packing so much power as they do at 145lbs. Is that really the case though? I’m not so sure. Munhoz hits extremely hard for a Bantamweight and more to the point, the kind of speed advantage ‘The Answer’ held over the UFC’s 145lbers may be nullified against smaller foes.
Overall then, I’m leaning towards Munhoz in a bit of an upset here. Had Edgar made the move to 135lbs after his second loss to Aldo in 2016 then maybe things could’ve been different. But pushing 40 and coming off two straight losses, it just doesn’t seem like a good idea to me. I think Munhoz will catch him cleanly and take him out in the early rounds.
The Pick: Munhoz via first-round KO