UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker - Predictions and Picks
After three straight shows at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, the UFC presents its fourth this weekend in the form of UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker.
The Lightweight main event should undoubtedly be one of the most highly anticipated clashes of 2020, and while there isn’t much of substance underneath, Poirier vs. Hooker is the kind of fight that should be considered must-see by any MMA fan.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker.
#1 UFC Lightweight Division: Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker
This fight feels like it’s been a long time in the making. Hooker initially called Poirier out following his October victory over Al Iaquinta at UFC 243, only for ‘The Diamond’ to essentially tell the native of New Zealand to get another big win first.
‘The Hangman’ did just that in February, outpointing Paul Felder in a five-round war at UFC Fight Night 168, and evidently that was enough to convince Poirier that the fight was a worthy one.
Poirier is of course the more high-profile of the two; a lengthy winning streak starting in 2017 took him all the way to main events on Fox and finally a win over Max Holloway at UFC 236 for the Interim Lightweight title last year. Sure, he was soundly defeated by Khabib Nurmagomedov when they eventually fought at UFC 242, but there’s no shame in that.
Hooker meanwhile has been fantastic ever since he moved back to Lightweight in 2017. A run of four straight stoppages – including a knockout of current top Welterweight contender Gilbert Burns at UFC 226 – put him into a showcase against Edson Barboza on the final UFC on Fox show. While he was eventually stopped in the third round, he showed inhuman toughness to survive a serious beating.
That kind of beating can often change a fighter’s career for the worse, but Hooker bounced back admirably in 2019, defeating James Vick at UFC on ESPN 4 before easily piecing up Iaquinta. So how do these two match up?
First and foremost, both men are strikers. Sure, they’re both solid grapplers too – they both have 7 tapouts on their ledger – but most recently, their kickboxing games have really come to the fore.
With that in mind, the big question to me becomes how Poirier deals with the lanky style and long reach of Hooker.
‘The Diamond’ has developed his striking over the years and now tends to attack his opponent with a brutal pressure-boxing game built around his ability to string combinations together, and his apparently sixth sense to know exactly when to turn up the heat on a hurt opponent to finish them off.
There are drawbacks to that style, though. Sure, Poirier beat Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Anthony Pettis en route to his clash with Khabib, but he also took a hell of a lot of punishment along the way. More relevantly for this fight, in all of those fights, ‘The Diamond’ held an advantage in terms of reach and range.
The last time he was faced with a striker who had a reach advantage? His 2016 clash with Michael Johnson, a fight that saw him knocked out in the first round. And before that, it was Conor McGregor at UFC 178, and well, you can see the pattern.
That means that to beat Hooker, Poirier has to find a way inside of that long reach to do his damage without taking too much in return. And for me, that’s going to be very tricky.
Hooker doesn’t hit with the concussive power of McGregor and I’d argue he’s not as fast as Johnson, but he’s extremely accurate and uses his 6’0” frame along with his 75” reach to excellent results. His win over Iaquinta was based almost completely around his use of jabs and low kicks to break ‘Ragin Al’ down. Once he’d done that, he was able to land heavier combinations that had Iaquinta in trouble.
Against Felder meanwhile, he attempted to carry off the same gameplan, but ended up being drawn into an out-and-out shootout at times. And somehow ‘The Hangman’ endured insane punishment, just as he’d done against Barboza, to survive for the win.
Essentially to me, this is a trickier fight for Poirier because to win, not only has he got to get into range by avoiding Hooker’s longer strikes, but when he’s there he’s essentially got to out-brawl the Kiwi as he did to the likes of Gaethje and Alvarez. And while both of those men wilted under the pressure, there’s no evidence that Hooker will do the same.
Overall I’d say this one could go either way, but I prefer Hooker’s chances as he could build a lead using his jab and low kicks early before even being drawn into a shootout. Given that Poirier’s been knocked out before while Hooker was only TKO’d after taking insane punishment, I can’t see him wilting here.
The Pick: Hooker via fourth round TKO