UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till - Predictions and Picks
This weekend sees the UFC present its fourth and final show on Abu Dhabi’s Fight Island, for the time being at least.
UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till is a monster of a show by anyone’s standards. It features a whopping 7-fight main card, the first UFC show to do so since 2015’s UFC 190.
Thankfully, the majority of the fights sound like a lot of fun, with a bunch of really big names and former champions on show.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till.
#1 UFC Middleweight Division: Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till
Firstly, I think it’s great that the UFC have been able to put this fight together. Whittaker and Till have been sniping at one another on social media, in a fun, good-natured way, practically since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
What’s more, with Whittaker ranked at #1 and Till at #5, there’s every chance that ‘The Gorilla’ in particular could lay claim to a title shot with a win here. But can he do it?
Well, it’s safe to say that the move up to 185lbs was the right move for him. Till was basically wrecking his body in his attempts to get down to 170lbs. Standing at 6’0”, the Liverpudlian isn’t exactly built like a fireplug, and with a long, 74.5” reach, he’s far bigger than a lot of Middleweights.
His debut at 185lbs last November at UFC 244 wasn’t a barnburner by anyone’s standards, but he did show a lot of promise in his new division. Kelvin Gastelum was unable to outmuscle him in the clinch, unable to take him down, and Till almost certainly landed the better strikes in what was a low-output affair overall.
Interestingly, this fight pits him against another fighter who made the journey up from 170lbs to 185lbs to tremendous effect. Like Till, Whittaker made the move up after suffering a nasty KO – in this case at the hands of Stephen Thompson at UFC 170.
‘The Reaper’ was always a solid 170lber with knockout power and a technical striking game, but the move to 185lbs benefited him hugely. Suddenly he had a tremendous speed advantage over most of his opponents, but he was also able to carry his KO power up with him.
That meant that he was able to take out the likes of Brad Tavares, Jacare Souza and Derek Brunson with brutal precision, while also being able to show enough technique to outpoint more technical strikers like Uriah Hall.
The Aussie’s rise to the top was cemented in 2017 at UFC 213, when he edged out Yoel Romero to claim the interim UFC Middleweight crown. Unfortunately though, despite being upgraded to be the undisputed champ shortly after, that’s where the wheels slowly began to come off for him.
Two serious injuries – one to his knee and a horrid staph infection in his stomach – sidelined him until deep into 2018. When he returned at UFC 225, he was somehow able to outlast Romero in a rematch, but took some absolutely tremendous punishment in the process. It was arguably one of the most damaging fights in UFC history.
Another serious injury – this time an abdominal hernia and collapsed bowel – forced him out of his next title defense and left him on the shelf for another year. This time when he returned at UFC 243, he was unable to deal with the pinpoint counter-striking of Israel Adesanya, and was knocked out, losing his title in the process.
This is his chance, then, to get back into championship contention.
In terms of styles, I’d have to favour Whittaker here. ‘The Reaper’ has been knocked out twice in his UFC career, and both losses suggest a pattern: Essentially, the Aussie simply doesn’t deal well with an opponent who has a pinpoint counter-striking game.
Sure, Romero is also a counter-fighter, but not in the same way as Thompson and Adesanya. The Cuban loves to lull his opponent into a false sense of security before opening up with a flurry, something Whittaker was able to survive.
Adesanya and Thompson on the other hand use their footwork and movement to force their opponent to make mistakes. And when they do, they land sniper-like shots as accurately as possible. Against both men, Whittaker simply couldn’t adjust in time before he ate a big shot that put him away.
Till doesn’t really fit that mould at all. He did defeat Thompson in 2018 in the kind of point-fighting affair that favoured ‘Wonderboy’, but that just means he was able to adjust to that style. It doesn’t make him a pinpoint counter-striker.
Instead, ‘The Gorilla’ loves to walk his opponent down, corral them into the fence, and then open up with his heavy strikes, particularly his left hook and his shots to the body. If he can get into the clinch, then he likes to smack his opponents with some heavy knees and elbows, too.
His style doesn’t really match any of Whittaker’s past opponents, but I do suspect that if he’s at his best, ‘The Reaper’ would be able to combat that style by using his movement to avoid finding his back to the fence.
From there, there’d be every chance that the shuffling footwork he deploys could set up a nasty shot of his own – such as a head kick or his own left hand.
With all of this considered, Whittaker by stoppage would be the smart bet here. However, that’d be ignoring the various x-factors to consider.
Firstly, while Till was KO’d by Jorge Masvidal and knocked down by Tyron Woodley at UFC 228, how much of that vulnerability came from his massive weight cut? It could be that ‘The Gorilla’ is much more durable at 185lbs.
The opposite may well be said for Whittaker. Sure, his KO losses came at the hands of pinpoint strikers, but after multiple serious injuries and two incredibly damaging fights against Romero, how much does he have left?
At 29, he certainly isn’t old, even in MMA terms. But he has reached that decade of fights mark, and has definitely taken more damage than Till.
I’m going to take Whittaker purely because I feel like his style meshes well with Till’s, but it’s not a sure bet at all. To see him hurt and stopped by ‘The Gorilla’ is a distinct possibility, but I think the Aussie probably has enough left in the tank to get through this one.
The Pick: Whittaker via third round TKO