UFC Fight Night 140: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio - Predictions and Picks
The UFC puts on its latest offering this Saturday in the form of UFC Fight Night 140 from Buenos Aires, Argentina. This will be the third South American country the MMA’s biggest promotion has visited, following plenty of trips to Brazil and a lone show in Chile earlier in 2018.
In terms of name value, it’s a pretty low-level card – Dave Meltzer has already suggested that the show might break the UFC’s record for the lowest TV rating – but due to the presence of guaranteed action fighters like Santiago Ponzinibbio, Cynthia Calvillo, Khalil Rountree and Guido Cannetti, it might yet score high in terms of entertainment value.
Here are the predicted outcomes for the UFC’s first visit to Argentina.
#1 Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Neil Magny
It came as no surprise to see Ponzinibbio booked in the main event of this show; not only is he a title contender at 170lbs, but he’s also by far the best MMA fighter ever produced by Argentina, despite him being based in Brazil for long swathes of his career. The crowd will be hugely behind ‘Gente Boa’ on Saturday and that’ll make for a fun atmosphere.
Opponent Magny was initially pegged to face off with Alex Oliveira at September’s Fight Night 137, but was moved to this card to face Ponzinibbio instead, and it’s a move that made sense – both Magny and Ponzinibbio currently sit in the UFC’s top ten at Welterweight; Magny at #8, Ponzinibbio at #10, meaning the winner instantly vaults into the title picture.
This is somewhat of a tough fight to call as there’s an argument to be made for both men winning. Ponzinibbio would appear to have the advantages in speed, athleticism and punching power; he has knockout wins over Gunnar Nelson and Court McGee and easily picked apart a heavy hitter in the form of Mike Perry last year while somehow managing to look comfortable trading in the pocket too.
In the form of Magny though, he’s faced with two issues .Firstly, Magny has a remarkable reach for a 170lber – 80”, which gives him a 7” advantage over the Argentine – and he knows exactly how to use it, as his jab-heavy wins over Gasan Umalatov and Erick Silva showed. He’s also got an excellent gas tank and can push a torrid pace, while we’ve seen Ponzinibbio wilt late on before, particularly in his 2013 fight with Ryan LaFlare.
Both men prefer to strike, but for all his reputation as a wild, exciting brawler, Ponzinibbio is a smarter fighter than he’s often given credit for. He may well have picked up on the fact that Magny’s defensive wrestling has often looked poor and while he’s happy to attack off his back, it’s hard to win rounds that way. To see ‘The Ponz’ shooting for some takedowns wouldn’t be a shocker, then.
Overall I feel like Ponzinibbio has more ways to victory here; if the two trade, the Argentine hits harder and has a better chin, and he’s the more nuanced striker too despite Magny’s reach. You could argue that on the ground, the fight could be a wash, but it’s far more likely that it’ll be Ponzinibbio on top if the fight does go down.
Expect Magny to give Ponzinibbio some issues early on with his reach and striking style, but I see Ponzinibbio making the correct adjustments and sending his fans home happy later down the stretch.
The Pick: Ponzinibbio via third round TKO