UFC Fight Night 141: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 - Predictions and Picks
The UFC has slowly been making inroads into Asia for some time now, and this Saturday marks the MMA juggernaut’s first event in Beijing, China. The UFC has been to mainland China once before – pretty much exactly a year ago for the Bisping vs. Gastelum Fight Night card, and this weekend’s event is very similar.
We’ve got a highly intriguing main event on tap as well as a handful of other intriguing bouts, but for the most part the card is filled with local Chinese fighters – most of whom have made their debut on the UFC’s previous Asian excursions – and interest levels are probably going to be pretty low overall.
Still, it’s a Fight Pass card that takes place at 11:30 am UK time and very early in the morning for US viewers, so it’s only ever going to appeal to hardcore fans anyway. We don’t have a solid bout order yet but for this article, I’m going on the current order shown on UFC.com and assuming that – as with previous Fight Pass cards – the main card will be a four-fight offering.
Here are the predicted outcomes for Fight Night 141 in Beijing.
#1 Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou
The Heavyweights get the main event slot here as the current #3 ranked Blaydes takes on the #4 ranked Ngannou in a rematch from their initial encounter back in April 2016. That fight saw Ngannou win via doctor’s stoppage when Blaydes’ right eye became swollen shut to the point that he couldn’t see. Things have changed dramatically since then, with both men rising to the top of the division – and one seemingly sliding back down rapidly.
2018 has been a year to forget for Ngannou. The UFC looked like they were ready to strap the rocket to his back when he was booked against Stipe Miocic for the Heavyweight title in January, but despite coming in on red-hot form after knocking Alistair Overeem unconscious, he ran out of steam against Miocic when he failed to finish him early and ended up being beaten down over the course of 5 rounds.
There was no shame in Ngannou losing that way – the fight was a huge step up for him and there was a lot of pressure on him, too – but his follow-up fight saw a loss to Derrick Lewis in the worst possible way. Ngannou looked gunshy and timid, and the fight turned into a staring contest with Lewis winning by merit of landing about five more strikes than his opponent.
Blaydes meanwhile hasn’t lost in the UFC since that debut setback to Ngannou, and he’s slowly been climbing the ranks ever since, using his powerful wrestling game and a massively improved striking game to go with it, too. His win over Mark Hunt in February saw him take some heavy shots – showing an incredible chin - before out-grappling the Kiwi to a decision, but his July win over Overeem was far more impressive, as he largely outlanded the Dutchman standing before destroying him on the ground for a TKO win.
I honestly can’t really see any way for Ngannou to win this one right now. Even if he returns to the monstrous form that he showed pre-Miocic, he’s still up against it when it comes to facing Blaydes. ‘Razor’ gave him the toughest fight on his way up the ladder – he was the only man to take the Cameroonian down, for instance – and that was in just his 6th professional fight.
Since then he’s been training with better coaches and partners – including former foe Overeem since the summer – and is in far better shape, too. He still has the incredibly strong wrestling game that he brought into the UFC with him (one more takedown and he has the record for most takedowns in UFC Heavyweight history) but he’s now much more well-rounded which means he can set his takedowns up far more easily using his strikes.
‘The Predator’ does have the kind of face-melting power that can change a fight in an instant, but in that sense, Blaydes has another advantage over other opponents – he’s felt Ngannou’s power before and survived, and he also came back from a few huge shots from Hunt. His chin is proven to be granite, even at the Heavyweight level.
It might be tough for Blaydes to put Ngannou away given the toughness he showed against Miocic in January, but I suspect – looking to cement himself as *the* top contender in the division – Blaydes will bring far more aggression than the champion did. I expect him to drag Ngannou to the ground on multiple occasions and eventually put him away in violent fashion.
The Pick: Blaydes via third round TKO