UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 - Predictions and Picks
This weekend sees the UFC present its second Fight Night show on the ESPN+ streaming service, as we’ve got a live card from Fortaleza, Brazil, main evented by a likely UFC Bantamweight title eliminator between Marlon Moraes and Raphael Assuncao.
For a Brazil-based Fight Night show the card is pretty loaded, too, with former UFC Featherweight champion Jose Aldo facing Renato Moicano in the semi-main event and the likes of Charles Oliveira, Demian Maia and Thiago Alves also in action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2.
#1 Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes
If there’s any justice in the world, the winner of this fight should be next in line for a shot at UFC Bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw. The UFC may decide differently though given Dillashaw’s recent loss to Henry Cejudo – and might book Cejudo vs. Dillashaw 2 at 135lbs – one can hope for some logical thought instead.
Assuncao and Moraes are clearly on the hottest runs in the division; Assuncao is 11-1 in the division with his sole loss coming to Dillashaw, and of course, he defeated TJ in their first fight back in 2013, while Moraes is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss being a controversial decision to....you guessed it, Assuncao, back in Moraes’ debut in June 2017.
The UFC will probably be hoping Moraes wins this one. Assuncao is clearly an excellent fighter, but he isn’t the most exciting to watch inside the Octagon and of his 11 Bantamweight victories, 8 of them have come by decision. Moraes, on the other hand, is a literal buzzsaw inside the cage, with his knockout wins over Jimmie Rivera and Aljamain Sterling both being worthy of anyone’s highlight reel.
In terms of their styles, you’d have to say Assuncao is the more well-rounded fighter. He tends to employ a boxing-heavy game with additional leg kicks to attack his opponent, but he’s also the owner of a pretty great grappling game – a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Assuncao came to the WEC as a noted submission artist and has developed his striking over the following years. Moraes meanwhile is almost a pure striker, relying heavily on a Muay Thai-styled attack that utilizes brutal leg kicks, knees and counter-punches. He’s also got a BJJ black belt, but he rarely bothers to use it.
So can the former WSOF champion pull off a big victory? Judging by the first fight between the two, there’s nothing to suggest he can’t. The UFC 212 preliminary headliner was a very close fight that took place almost exclusively on the feet, and while Assuncao started off better, once Moraes found his range in the second round he appeared to have the advantage in the second and third rounds. Two of the three judges might’ve gone for Assuncao, but most of the MMA media – myself included – scored the fight 29-28 for Moraes.
Given the events of that first fight, it’s hard to envision anything hugely different going down this time. I could talk about Assuncao’s excellent ground game, but it’s not like his takedowns have improved hugely since that first fight and he couldn’t get Moraes off his feet then. For me, two x-factors have to be considered and they both fall in Moraes’ favour.
Firstly, the first fight between the two was Assuncao’s 11th in the UFC, while for Moraes, it represented his Octagon debut. That could well account for Moraes’ surprisingly slow opening round – he might’ve been a former WSOF champion, but ‘Octagon Shock’ has been known to affect even the most experienced debutant.
And secondly, this fight will be fought over 5 rounds, and given the close nature of the first fight, it’s easy to see this one going the distance. With that in mind, while Assuncao has gone the distance plenty of times in his career, he’s never gone 25 minutes – and more to the point, this is the first time he’s ever trained for such a fight. Moraes meanwhile has not only appeared in a UFC 5-rounder – not that it went that far – but he’s gone 25 minutes twice before and appeared to be the fresher man at the end of their first encounter.
I don’t think Moraes can finish Assuncao and I suspect that’ll likely be the reason that the UFC deny him a title shot – this may, in fact, be a fight with a lot of slow spots, judging on their first fight – but I do think he’s the better striker overall and I think he’ll pick Assuncao apart for the majority of this outing, leading to a decision win.
The Pick: Moraes via unanimous decision