UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks
The UFC has made a habit of breaking into new European markets over the past few years; the Netherlands, Poland and Croatia have all been visited recently along with the UK, which has been a regular stopping point for the promotion for a decade. This weekend marks the debut show in the Czech Republic, as the UFC visits the capital city of Prague.
The show – which will air live on the ESPN+ streaming service and on BT Sport in the UK – is your typical UFC Euro fare, with no huge names but some pretty intriguing fights involving a lot of top European stars.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos.
#1 Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos
With Anthony Smith getting his Light-Heavyweight title shot at UFC 235 and champ Jon Jones apparently willing to take on all comers, it seems like the next shot at 205lbs – assuming Smith doesn’t upset Jones of course – is very much up-in-the-air right now, meaning this main event could definitely have title implications.
Both Jan Blachowicz and Thiago Santos have been on hot runs as of late; Poland’s Blachowicz is on a 4-fight winning streak, while Santos entered the division with a bang in 2018, stopping both Eryk Anders and Jimi Manuwa in violent and exciting fashion. But who’s going to win this battle of striking-based fighters?
Blachowicz – who debuted in the UFC back in 2014 – has a record of 6-4 in the Octagon with an overall record of 23-7. ‘The Prince of Ciesnyn’ initially seemed like a largely one-dimensional kickboxer, but recently he’s shown some surprising submission chops – tapping out both Devin Clark and Nikita Krylov in impressive fashion.
While he does have 4 losses in the Octagon, it’s notable that he’s never really struggled with fellow strikers; Patrick Cummins and Corey Anderson both outwrestled him to victories, while Jimi Manuwa largely outhustled him in the clinch before being thoroughly beaten in their 2018 rematch. Even Alexander Gustafsson was being hurt by the Pole in striking exchanges before using his ground game to grind out a win.
Blachowicz’s strengths clearly lie with his striking; he’s got a good boxing game based around a solid jab; his body kicks are absolutely vicious – just ask Ilir Latifi, who was finished by him in that fashion in 2014 – and he’s pretty handy inside the clinch too.
Santos meanwhile has been an offensive marvel since his UFC debut in 2013. ‘Marreta’ struggled during a stint on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, but then put together an excellent record of 10-5 at 185lbs, with notable wins against Elias Theodorou, Nate Marquardt, Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith. Since moving to 205lbs in late 2018, he’s 2-0 and finished both Eryk Anders and Jimi Manuwa.
The problem for Santos has always been his tendency to fight like the proverbial glass cannon. Offensively, he’s absolutely tremendous, winging strikes and combinations with insane power both from the clinch and from the outside. He’s taken opponents out with punches, head kicks and knees, and he’s done it from the ground as well as standing. But not only has his ground game been porous at times – he was easily tapped by Eric Spicely, for instance – but he’s also hittable standing.
That probably stems from his wild nature; Santos is willing to trade off with his opponents, betting on his power pulling him through, but unfortunately his chin hasn’t always held up. Sure, he defeated Manuwa in a hell of a brawl, but Manuwa also has chin issues. And while there’s no shame in being knocked out by Gegard Mousasi, a KO loss to David Branch was alarming indeed.
Santos and his camp would probably claim that his lack of durability was caused by a huge weight cut to 185lbs, which is no longer an issue, but I’m not so sure personally – he definitely got hurt by both Anders and Manuwa even if he recovered to win. Against a striker like Jan Blachowicz though, that could prove to be an issue.
This should be a hell of a fight as both guys will likely wing strikes at one another until one falls down. I’m betting on Blachowicz, though; I worry for Santos when he’s facing a guy who’s only ever lost by TKO once – and that was via leg kicks – as his wild style just lends itself to taking counters, and Blachowicz’s chin should be stout enough to take punishment while I suspect ‘Marreta’ may fold under the Pole’s power.
The Pick: Blachowicz via first round KO