UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks
After one of the biggest – and best – UFC shows of 2019 thus far last weekend in the form of UFC 236, this weekend’s show could bring UFC fans back to earth with a bump. The UFC’s second show in Russia following 2018’s effort from Moscow, this Saturday sees UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik come live from St. Petersburg.
Okay, so the main event sounds pretty cool considering it features a late replacement (more on that later) but the rest of the card features a whopping 7 UFC debutants, including 3 on the main card alone, and essentially nothing but the main event can impact on the UFC’s title pictures.
Still, there could be some fun fights on show here, and I’m willing to cross my fingers and check this show out.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik.
#1 Alistair Overeem vs. Alexei Oleinik
A battle of two hardened veterans, this is probably – I haven’t checked, but I can’t imagine anything beating it – the most “experienced” main event in UFC history. Between them, Alistair Overeem and Alexei Oleinik – who have been fighting professionally since 1999 and 1996 respectively – have an insane total of 131 fights. Quite how both men remain relevant in the UFC’s Heavyweight title picture is both a mystery – and a testament to the skill and toughness of both men.
At this stage everyone knows about Overeem’s story; the Dutchman was one of the UFC’s biggest acquisitions from the 2011 StrikeForce buyout, but after destroying Brock Lesnar in his promotional debut, he tested positive for elevated testosterone levels and subsequently lost his planned Heavyweight title shot at Junior Dos Santos.
A year on the shelf followed before a run of mixed results had him on the verge of being cut in late 2014, but a reinvention – essentially, ‘The Reem’ shed a lot of his bulk and became a more economic, movement-based striker – saw him go on an impressive run and almost topple Stipe Miocic for the Heavyweight title in 2016. Overeem would come up short in that fight, but has since proven himself to be very relevant in the division, beating Mark Hunt, Fabricio Werdum and Sergei Pavlovich with his only losses being to title contenders Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes.
Oleinik hasn’t had to reinvent himself as such during his UFC run – he’s simply proven people wrong throughout his career inside the Octagon. A plodding, albeit powerful striker, Oleinik relies almost solely on his ground game, which mixes brute strength with slick skills, to win his fights, living up to his ‘Boa Constrictor’ nickname almost perfectly.
Oleinik is a surprising 6-2 inside the UFC including submission wins over Mark Hunt and Travis Browne, and his only losses came to Curtis Blaydes – hardly a shameful result – and to Daniel Omielanczuk in a fight that saw Oleinik come in injured.
Interestingly, this fight was initially supposed to see Overeem take on Alexander Volkov in a battle of strikers, but when Volkov picked up an injury, Oleinik stepped in on about two weeks notice. Will that be a factor here? I doubt it. Oleinik seems like the kind of fighter who comes in with the same gameplan for every fight, and he’s never relied on a deep gas tank to succeed.
After thinking it over, I’m favoring Overeem in this fight. Sure, he’s extremely chinny – he seems to get rocked or hurt in every fight he takes – but Oleinik is probably the most plodding striker he’s faced since Roy Nelson back in 2015. And that was the first example of Overeem’s more varied, combination-based striking game as opposed to his own plodding, bullying style that he relied on in the ‘Ubereem’ days.
Since then ‘The Reem’ has developed that style even further, and he’s now able to move around on the outside and pick his shots to perfection. That got him into trouble against Ngannou, but Oleinik is simply nowhere near as explosive a striker as the Cameroon native. And while Oleinik has that crushing ground game to fall back on, it’s hard to see him deploy that to Overeem.
Firstly, ‘The Reem’ still has pretty excellent takedown defence; he always has done really and hasn’t struggled with wrestlers for years now, and secondly, if the fight does hit the ground it’s not like he’s a mug there either – he’s a fantastic grappler in his own right who has submitted Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts and even qualified for the Abu Dhabi Grappling Tournament in 2005. To see him give his neck for Oleinik’s trademark Ezekiel Choke would be a jaw-dropper.
In the end, I think this should favor Overeem in all areas; I expect him to evade Oleinik’s clubbing punches, particularly his overhand right, while using counter-strikes such as his knees and kicks to the body as well as his own left hook. Eventually, Oleinik – the older man by 3 years – will run out of gas, and from there I can see ‘The Reem’ finishing him off late.
The Pick: Overeem via third round TKO