UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs Stephens - Predictions and Picks
After last weekend’s UFC Fight Night from Vancouver delivered some of 2019’s most entertaining action, this week’s effort – UFC Fight Night 159 – has a lot to live up to. Thankfully, the show – which takes place in Mexico City, the 5th time the UFC has visited the city – has a lot of fights which sound excellent.
Sure, we’re a bit low on name value, but the card is full of exciting brawlers and hot prospects, so hopefully, we’ll be in for a night full of fun fights – even if the extreme altitude of the city might sap the cardio of the athletes in action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs. Stephens.
#1 Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens
Not only does this sound like an exciting fight on paper given the wild, all-action styles of both fighters, but it’s also an excellent match that pits a hot prospect against a wily veteran capable of shutting any opponent down in a second. If Rodriguez can beat Stephens, then he’d have to be considered a title contender at 145lbs, while if Stephens wins, it’d almost certainly guarantee him another big fight somewhere down the line.
It’s hard to believe it, but it’s almost been a year since we last saw Rodriguez in action in that genuinely insane fight with the Korean Zombie at the UFC’s 25th-anniversary show. For those who missed that classic war, Rodriguez – who was probably losing the fight – managed to uncork a bizarre no-look upward elbow to knock the Zombie out with literally a single second remaining in the fifth round. It was one of the best UFC highlight-reel moments of all time.
Unfortunately, the fact that ‘El Pantera’ broke his foot during that fight and has been on the shelf since has meant that his momentum has been slowed down a lot. But this is a chance for him to remind everyone exactly what he’s about and why he’s considered one of the top prospects in the game.
Flashiness is Rodriguez’s main calling card; his fundamentals are actually fine as we’ve seen him use a decent jab at times, his takedowns are relatively strong and he’ll throw regular strikes and combinations – including some excellent leg kicks – throughout his fights, but he’s also incredibly comfortable in throwing stuff like flying knees, spinning hook kicks and strikes from unusual angles.
We saw this weekend in the Michel Pereira vs. Tristan Connelly fight that wild attacks only work if you’ve got the all-round skills to back them up, and unlike Pereira, Rodriguez definitely has those skills. He’s also got the cardio to throw his wild combinations deep into the fight, as we saw in his crazy five-rounders with the Zombie and also with Alex Caceres.
As far as weaknesses go? Frankie Edgar absolutely dismantled the Mexican from the top, brutalizing him with punches and elbows after taking him down, but he’s been the only fighter to really outwrestle Rodriguez thus far, and given Stephens doesn’t tend to use his wrestling that doesn’t seem truly relevant for this fight. Jung did have success in basically outboxing Rodriguez, but while that does point to the fact that his wildness can be used against him, it’s worth noting that Rodriguez’s movement was likely hampered by the foot injury in that fight.
Stephens is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division, simply because he hits ridiculously hard. It’s been his calling card since his debut back in 2007 and given there aren’t all that many other fighters from back then still having success in the UFC, it’s a testament to his skills that he’s still main eventing shows like this one. ‘Lil Heathen’ is on a two-fight skid right now, but you can hardly hold losses to Jose Aldo and Zabit Magomedsharipov against him.
Like other hard hitters though, Stephens’ power can sometimes work against him. While he’s capable of uncorking some insane knockouts – witness his finishes of Josh Emmett and Doo Ho Choi in 2018, or his brutal 2015 flying knee KO of Dennis Bermudez – it does mean that he’s very susceptible to leaving behind his more technical striking to simply swing for the fences, which got him into trouble against Aldo and has contributed to earlier losses too.
Stephens is definitely capable of a more nuanced, technical gameplan, as we saw when he picked Gilbert Melendez apart with leg kicks in 2017, but those kinds of showings have been few and far between for him. So how does he match up with Rodriguez? I’m honestly not sure.
Stephens did struggle with Magomedsharipov’s length and kicking-based striking game during their fight, while Renato Moicano notably picked him apart by mixing up his strikes from range and his takedowns. Interestingly, Stephens is a solid defensive wrestler, but due to his penchant for becoming overly emotional and swinging for the fences, he can be taken down by fighters who can cleverly time a double leg.
Rodriguez has a similar kicking game as Zabit, but he’s also shown much more of a penchant for brawling, his reach (71”) is equaled by Stephens’, and it’s hard to imagine him fighting in the same patient way that Moicano did. On the other hand, his cardio is far superior to Stephens’, he’s taken less damage over his career and judging on his fight with Jung, he can definitely take a heavy shot.
This is a winnable fight for Rodriguez if he can manage to keep Stephens at range and use his kicks to break him down while avoiding any brawling exchanges; if he can do that then I think he can also mix his takedowns in to either outwork Stephens for a decision, or perhaps take him out late on. If he comes out willing to swing for the fences, though? It could prove to be his downfall. I’m betting on Rodriguez here, but I’m not really 100% sure.
The Pick: Rodriguez via unanimous decision