UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs. Cannonier - Predictions and Picks
This Saturday sees the UFC make its debut in a new European country – Denmark to be exact – as the promotion rolls into Copenhagen’s Royal Arena for UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs. Cannonier.
Despite being a European Fight Night show – most of which are traditionally weaker cards by UFC standards – there’s a lot to like here. Sure, the main event isn’t as captivating on paper as the previous two – Justin Gaethje vs. Donald Cerrone and Yair Rodriguez vs. Jeremy Stephens – but it’s still two top ten 185lbers doing battle, and the undercard is filled with talented and exciting fighters, too.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs. Cannonier.
#1 Jack Hermansson vs. Jared Cannonier
If someone had told me a year ago that these two men would be main eventing a UFC show, I’d have come to one of two conclusions; the person was crazy, or the UFC was really spreading itself thin. Well, that isn’t actually the case, as MMA has proved to be as unpredictable as ever, and both Hermansson and Cannonier are now clearly, albeit unlikely, top ten contenders at 185lbs.
Interestingly enough, both men enjoyed their first breakout performance against the same opponent: the recently released David Branch. Cannonier knocked Branch out after stepping in as a late replacement at last November’s UFC 230, while Hermansson choked him out earlier in 2019. Who had the more impressive performance? Given Branch’s grappling skill, you’d have to say Hermansson, for what that’s worth.
Since then both men have also picked up even bigger wins. Hermansson pulled out a career-best performance to outpoint Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza just weeks after beating Branch, while Cannonier picked up the biggest win of his career – in name-value at least – by TKOing Anderson Silva with leg kicks in his back yard of Rio De Janeiro in May.
While this is a bit of an unlikely main event, it’s also a fascinating clash of styles given the differing approaches of the two men. Cannonier’s great strength comes, well, from his great strength. A former Heavyweight, ‘The Killa Gorilla’ has insane striking power, hence winning 7 of his 12 wins by KO or TKO. Is he the most nuanced striker in the division? Definitely not, but his fundamentals are sound and everything he throws, he throws heavily.
Hermansson, on the other hand, succeeds largely based on two things; firstly, his height and reach. Despite not being the tallest 185lber at 6’1” he’s long and lanky and always makes the most of his 77.5” reach – although it’s notable that he’ll only have a half-inch reach on Cannonier here.
And secondly, his ability to push a simply insane pace, as we saw when he faced Jacare. The Brazilian is hardly a fighter who struggles for cardio, but he couldn’t keep up with ‘The Joker’ at all.
Hermansson is also an excellent grappler, something that became obvious when he choked out a high-level BJJ black belt in Branch and somehow came close to submitting one of the best grapplers on the planet in Jacare. Sure, he’d tapped other opponents out before but it came as a major surprise to find out exactly how good he’d become on the ground earlier this year.
For me then, this comes down to a couple of things. Firstly, can Cannonier use his own long reach to get inside the jab and long strikes of Hermansson to do damage on the inside? ‘The Joker’ was last defeated by the hard-hitting Thiago Santos, who basically turned up the heat late in the first round and took out the Swede with a vicious barrage of strikes, something that Cannonier is definitely capable of doing – and of course, like Cannonier, Santos is also a fighter capable of competing at 185lbs and 205lbs.
The problem with that theory, though, is that Cannonier usually does most of his best work from close range. Last time he fought a longer, rangier striker was when he faced Dominick Reyes, and while it’s true that Reyes is a big 205lber, he also made taking out Cannonier from distance look remarkably easy. Hermansson likely doesn’t have Reyes’ power, but he’s still a hard hitter with 11 KOs or TKOs to his name.
Secondly, what happens if this fight goes to the ground? We’ve never really seen Cannonier against a dangerous grappler with the long arms of Hermansson before although he was notably outwrestled by Glover Teixeira in their fight. He was able to deal with Branch on the ground though, which should definitely earn him some points and gives him hope if this one hits the mat.
After some thought I’m leaning towards Hermansson here; I feel like even though Cannonier hits hard, he’s going to find it hard to land something big on the Swede, and more to the point even if he does, I’m not sure even he has the one-shot kill power to take out Hermansson in that way. Santos took him out in a rush, but he hits even harder than Cannonier and even he didn’t knock ‘The Joker’ completely unconscious.
Mainly though I can’t get the image of Cannonier being TKOd by Reyes out of my mind, especially given the manner that Reyes did it – with long strikes from distance. Throw in the fact that Hermansson has better cardio and a better ground game, and I think this fight is his to lose – with the obvious caveat that Cannonier has a puncher’s chance.
The Pick: Hermansson via fourth-round TKO