UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs. Hooker - Predictions and Picks
This weekend sees the UFC return to New Zealand for the first time since June 2017, and while nobody is going to mistake UFC Fight Night 168 for a high-end card, it’s certainly got an intriguing main event in the form of Lightweights Paul Felder and Dan Hooker doing battle.
Rest of the card is full of Australian or Kiwi fighters, meaning the crowd at least should be super-hot throughout the night, particularly if their local favorites can pull off some big victories.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs. Hooker.
#1 Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker
The UFC’s Lightweight division is a tricky one to read at the minute; the fact that the division’s champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov is also one of the promotion’s biggest drawing cards means that making fights for him is a lot trickier than it is to make fights for say, Welterweight champ Kamaru Usman. That means that the handful of fighters at the top of the division - the likes of Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are much more protective of their spots than their equivalents elsewhere.
What does that mean for the two fighters about to face off this weekend? It means that they’re going to have to do something really impressive in order to move up the ladder any further. We’ve already seen an example of this issue in the fact that Hooker’s request to fight Poirier was turned down – hence why this match was made instead.
That’s not to be disrespectful of Felder. ‘The Irish Dragon’ might be well known for his commentating skills these days, but he’s also a fantastic fighter and an outstanding striker in particular. He’s 5-0 in his last 5 fights at 155lbs and most recently, he edged out Edson Barboza in an ultra-close fight to call, avenging an earlier loss from 2015.
Hooker though can argue that he picked up the bigger wins in 2019 by defeating James Vick and Al Iaquinta, both of whom had main evented UFC shows in recent times. ‘The Hangman’ has developed his game over the years since he joined the UFC, transforming from a lanky submission expert into a dangerous kickboxer who knows exactly how to make the most of his long, 6’0” frame.
The big question for me in this fight is how Felder will deal with that length and range. ‘The Irish Dragon’ is only an inch shorter than his Kiwi opponent and is only giving up an inch and a half of reach, but Hooker has become so adept at using his jab, his knee strikes and his kicks that Felder may still have trouble getting inside to land anything major.
Even if he does, can he really turn Hooker’s lights out? We saw ‘The Hangman’ take some ridiculous punishment at the hands of Edson Barboza in 2018 – an almost inhuman beating – and yet he kept on coming for three rounds before a merciful referee stoppage.
Equally though, Felder is incredibly tough himself; he’s never been stopped before outside of a doctor’s stoppage due to a cut in his 2016 clash with Francisco Trinaldo. That means that the likelihood of a stoppage here seems slim, so I’d expect this one to go the distance.
So who will take it? While Hooker has looked tremendous in using his reach and length recently, and he’s also fighting at home, I’m giving the advantage to Felder here. Firstly, he’s a training partner of Donald Cerrone – a man who fights in a very similar way to Hooker, meaning he may well have some kind of idea of how ‘The Hangman’ is going to approach things.
Secondly, Hooker’s victims all come with a caveat; Iaquinta is primarily a boxer who simply didn’t have the tools to deal with Hooker’s kicking game, Vick has a severely compromised chin, Gilbert Burns was much shorter, and so on. Felder will be the first fully rounded, dangerous striker ‘The Hangman’ has faced since Barboza, and we all know how that one ended.
I think we’ll likely see a round or perhaps two rounds of Felder working to gauge the distance – rounds he may well lose – before he finds his range to take over down the stretch. I wouldn’t be shocked at a split decision if one of the later rounds is close, but I’m betting on ‘The Irish Dragon’ to do enough to win this one.
The Pick: Felder via split decision