UFC Fight Night 172: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 - Predictions and Picks
After making a successful debut on Fight Island this weekend, the UFC returns there for a third time on Saturday. We’ve still got UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige to look forward to this Wednesday, but the weekend’s show is probably better.
UFC Fight Night 172 will hopefully crown a new UFC Flyweight champion. But more than that, we’ve got at least two other fights on tap that could affect title pictures in the near future.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 172: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2.
#1 UFC World Flyweight Title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez
Due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it feels like a lot longer than just 20 weeks since these two men first squared off. They main-evented UFC Fight Night 169 in Norfolk, Virginia with the UFC Flyweight title on the line. And despite a tremendous fight, nothing ended up being settled.
Things largely went wrong prior to the fight, when Figueiredo missed the 125lbs Flyweight limit by 2.5lbs. That meant he was ineligible to win the title, and although the fight went ahead with Benavidez still being able to take the crown, things soon got worse.
‘Deus Da Guerra’ – the God of War – stopped Benavidez in violent fashion in the second round. But prior to the decisive blow, the two men had clashed heads. Benavidez clearly came off worse, with a bad cut to the forehead, and it’s probably fair to suggest that the knockout never would’ve happened without it.
Thankfully, the UFC have done the simple thing and just rematched the two here. However, nothing seems to be simple when it comes to the UFC Flyweight title. Last week it was announced that the fight was in jeopardy due to Figueiredo testing positive for COVID-19. Since then it’s been announced that the fight is still on.
Reportedly, the test was a false positive stemming from the Brazilian having COVID-19 earlier on during the pandemic. And as of the time of writing, it does appear that the fight will go ahead. But will Figueiredo be affected by his spell with the virus? Who knows.
The big question here is what kind of adjustments Benavidez can make from the first fight. It’s true that the clash of heads led directly to him being knocked out, but it wasn’t like he was winning the fight prior to that moment.
The issue that ‘The Beefcake’ appeared to be having was the fact that unlike the majority of his Flyweight opponents, Figueiredo was able to absorb his biggest punches with no problems.
Benavidez’s striking style has improved over the years, but he still tends to step into the pocket and firepower punches, hoping that he’ll connect with a bomb to knock his foe out before they can fire back with anything too heavy. And if he finds himself losing these striking exchanges, then he’s always got his strong wrestling, complete with a nasty choke game, to fall back on.
For the majority of his career – even against Henry Cejudo – it’s a plan that’s worked. However, that wasn’t the case at all with Figueiredo. His chin allowed him to fire back and connect with hard shots of his own, and he was also able to prevent the majority of Benavidez’s takedowns.
When ‘The Beefcake’ did get him down, the Brazilian showed that he’s no mug on the ground either. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Figueiredo instantly locked up an armbar that most fighters probably would’ve had to tap out to. Benavidez was able to escape, but the likelihood of him surviving a longer exchange on the ground didn’t look good.
Essentially then, the first fight showed that Benavidez is probably outgunned standing and also on the ground. So is there any path to victory for him?
Perhaps. I’d say his best bet would probably be to force a high pace and hope that Figueiredo – the bigger man who has to complete a heavy weight cut to make 125lbs – tires himself out. Can Benavidez pull that off? It’s possible. He’s a good enough scrambler on the ground to avoid a quick submission and he can definitely push the pace standing.
The problem is going to be that we’ve seen in the past – in his fights with Alexandre Pantoja and John Moraga – that Figueiredo’s punching power holds up into the third round at least. And with Benavidez’s wide-open style, it just raises the possibility that ‘Deus Da Guerra’ will land a bomb - and become the new UFC Flyweight champion.
Things could go wrong for Figueiredo if he misses weight, or if he has any lasting after-effects of COVID-19. Judging by their first fight, though, I’ve got to go with him here.
The Pick: Figueiredo via second-round KO