UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks
After a somewhat cursed card last weekend, the UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend.
On tap is UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik, and for the time being at least, we appear to have 13 fights on the card. And with a wild-sounding Heavyweight main event, as well as the return of former UFC champ Chris Weidman, this should be must-see stuff.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik.
#1 UFC Heavyweight Division: Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik
The UFC’s Heavyweight division is in a bit of a logjam at the minute, but hopefully not for much longer. With current champ, Stipe Miocic set to end his three-fight rivalry with Daniel Cormier later this month – a trilogy of fights that’s taken over three years to complete – the division should be ready to move on, regardless of who wins.
The top contender is clearly Francis Ngannou, who has won his last four fights in violent fashion. But underneath ‘The Predator’, things are a little more open. That means that an impressive win for Lewis – who’s currently ranked at #4 – might well allow him to leapfrog Curtis Blaydes in the queue for a title shot.
Can ‘The Black Beast’ pull it off? It won’t be easy. Given he’s 43 years old, Oleinik ought to be slowing down, and yet that doesn’t seem to be the case. He’s 2-0 thus far into 2020, and his most recent fight saw him pick up his biggest UFC win to date over former champ Fabricio Werdum.
‘The Boa Constrictor’ is a slow, plodding fighter – particularly on the feet. But on the ground, he very much lives up to his nickname. Of his 59 career wins, 46 have come via submission, including six of his UFC victories. He’s deadly with all sorts of holds, but chokes are his specialty, in particular the rare Ezekiel choke.
Given that Lewis has traditionally had trouble on the ground, the big Ukrainian must be hopeful for his chance if he can take ‘The Black Beast’ down. That might be easier said than done, though.
Lewis doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense in the UFC. At times it’s been all too easy for foes to drag him to the mat. But once he’s there, while he’s far from a technical grappler, his explosive power makes him tricky to hold down. And he’s only been submitted once – a 2018 loss to Cormier via rear-naked choke.
Where ‘The Black Beast’ really excels is on the feet. At times, like Oleinik, he appears to be slow and plodding. But despite his huge size – he cuts weight to make the 265lbs Heavyweight limit – he has the ability to shock his opponents by suddenly exploding into action.
His UFC career has been built on this ability to lull foes into a false sense of security before suddenly destroying them with powerful punches. The likes of Alexander Volkov, Marcin Tybura, and Gabriel Gonzaga all fell to this style, and if Lewis lands cleanly, he’s got the power to turn the lights out on anyone.
Oleinik packs power of his own – he’s only got eight knockouts to his name, but he’s hurt plenty of opponents with his clubbing blows. However, can we really expect him to outstrike Lewis? It’s doubtful. ‘The Black Beast’ definitely has some issues. He’s vulnerable to body punches in particular, but his power makes it very dangerous for an opponent to risk a standing exchange.
That means that Oleinik’s only real chance of winning is to take Lewis down early and latch onto a submission. For a grappler of his standards, that’s a possibility, but it won’t be easy for him.
Lewis only becomes really vulnerable on the ground when he’s tired. Before that, he seems to have the ability to simply power out of holds, escaping tight situations with the likes of Blagoy Ivanov and Shamil Abdurakhimov in past UFC fights.
Oleinik is probably the best grappler Lewis has faced since Cormier, but he’ll have to be at his very best to catch ‘The Black Beast’ napping – and it won’t be that easy to get him down, either.
Add in the fact that ‘The Boa Constrictor’ has been taken out by strikes in his last three UFC defeats – most notably in a Lewis-style rush by Walt Harris in 2019 – and I think the better odds of victory are with Lewis here. I’ll take ‘The Black Beast’ via first-round knockout.
The Pick: Lewis via first-round TKO