UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic - Predictions and Picks
The UFC is all set to put on another Fight Night show this weekend in Las Vegas, and right now at least, it looks like a pretty solid card on paper.
I use the words “right now” because it feels like every single UFC card in the past few weeks has had a bunch of last-minute changes and cancelations. Obviously, it’s not the UFC’s fault in the COVID-19 era, but it’s still a bit frustrating.
Case in point – one of the fights pegged for the main card of this show was a Featherweight bout between Ricardo Lamas and Ryan Hall. It’s now been announced by the UFC that Hall is out due to undisclosed reasons.
As of the time of writing, the UFC have found a replacement for him – but in all honesty, it probably won’t be the last change to this show.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic.
#1 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic
In all honesty, it’s a huge surprise to see Anthony Smith fighting again this year. ‘Lionheart’ was last seen in May – in the main event of the UFC’s second show during the COVID-19 pandemic – and to say his fight with Glover Teixeira didn’t go to plan would be an understatement.
Smith actually did really well in the early going, taking the fight to Teixeira and pushing an absolutely torrid pace. However, when he couldn’t put the Brazilian away, he slowed down dramatically. And from there, he went onto take one of the worst – and most extended – beatings in UFC history.
Sure, Smith lived up to his ‘Lionheart’ nickname and was still swinging strikes back even when he was badly hurt. But the truth is that between the referee and Smith’s corner, someone made a horrible mistake. There’s just no way the fight should’ve gone past the third round, let alone into the fifth.
That means that regardless of his past accomplishments in the UFC – his big wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Volkan Oezdemir, and Shogun Rua – you have to question exactly what he can be bringing into this fight.
Is three months really a long enough time to have recovered from a beating that saw him tell his corner that his teeth were falling out? I’m honestly not too sure. Smith is only 32 years old, but he’s been around for a long time. He debuted in MMA back in 2008 and his current UFC run is his second with the promotion. So it could well be that we’re already seeing him on his way down the ladder.
If that’s the case, then this is a huge opportunity for Rakic. The Austrian fighter – 12-2 in MMA, 4-1 in the UFC – is probably at his athletic peak at 28 years old. His wins over Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa were incredible. And although he lost to Volkan Oezdemir in his last UFC outing, there were many people – myself included – who thought he deserved the nod.
Regardless, it was a close decision that told observers plenty about Rakic. He’d basically made his name in destroying his opponents and while he wasn’t able to do that to Oezdemir, he was never badly hurt - despite taking serious damage to his leg. And he showed he could take as much punishment as he could dole out.
If anything, the Austrian’s performance was the equal of Dominick Reyes’ against Oezdemir. And for Reyes, it was enough to put him one step away from a UFC title shot.
If Rakic could take out Smith in impressive fashion then, he’d probably be the top contender to whoever wins the upcoming Reyes/Jan Blachowicz fight to decide the new UFC Light Heavyweight champion.
So can he do it? For me, it’s definitely possible. Firstly, it’s unlikely that Smith is going to be able to abuse Rakic from distance given he’s at a two-inch reach disadvantage. Sure, ‘Lionheart’ often lands his best strikes from close range. But it’s going to be very dangerous for him to attempt to walk the Austrian down to land his big shots from inside.
Rakic did struggle somewhat when Oezdemir walked him down, and it’s true that Smith looked excellent in the early going when he was walking Teixeira down. However, Glover is a much more plodding fighter than Rakic. And based on his defense and durability against Volkan, I find it hard to imagine that Smith is going to be able to TKO him by simply pushing forward throwing bombs.
Add in the fact that Smith tired badly in his attempts to take out Teixeira – a much more shopworn fighter than Rakic – and is coming back from what was a horrendous beating very quickly – and I worry for him in this fight.
I’d expect violence early as Smith will look to take Rakic out in the opening round. But assuming the Austrian can weather the storm, I think he can turn the tables on ‘Lionheart’. I’ve underestimated Smith in the UFC in the past, but I just worry about him coming back this quickly against such a dangerous foe.
The Pick: Rakic via third-round TKO