UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks
The UFC’s second show on the ESPN network – that is, not the ESPN+ streaming service – goes down this weekend from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The UFC’s debut on the network was a pretty heavy show with a main event of Cain Velasquez vs. Francis Ngannou, and while this show’s main event – Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje – is just as good, the overall strength of the card essentially isn’t there.
That’s not to say this show looks bad on paper – it’s full of fighters who usually bring the action, names like Jack Hermansson, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Sheymon Moraes – but in terms of title contention, well, it’s hard to see any title shots being won in Philly on Saturday. But hey, it’s about fight quality, right? And there should be some quality stuff on tap here.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje.
#1 Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje
It’s almost hard to believe that the UFC have taken this long to put this fight together – but then again I guess Gaethje’s only been with the promotion for just under two years now. At any rate, it’s a meeting of two of the Lightweight division’s best – and more importantly, most exciting – strikers. Both men love to throw leg kicks, both men push a heavy pace, and both men have brutal knockout power.
Both men won their previous fights in violent fashion; Barboza turned out the lights on Dan Hooker in December, the Kiwi fighter constantly pushing forward like a zombie, which would’ve thrown off some opponents – but not Barboza, who just kept hitting him until he was finally done. Gaethje meanwhile landed one of the best knockouts of 2018 by switching off James Vick with a single right hand back in August.
Barboza’s striking style has always been built around his leg kicks; he’s the only fighter in UFC history to have two stoppages via them, and basically everything he throws is chambered around them, from his sweeping hooks to the head and body to his more flashy offense – like the flying knee he threw to take out Beneil Dariush in a fight he was actually struggling in.
The problem for ‘Junior’ has always been his own ability to take punishment; he’s tougher than some people have made out, as we saw when he survived hellacious beatings at the hands of Kevin Lee and Khabib Nurmagomedov to last the distance. He even came back from one such beating to narrowly edge out Danny Castillo back in 2013. But the point still stands, his chin isn’t the best and he can be hurt and stopped.
Gaethje on the other hand went a full 6 years without being stopped prior to coming to the UFC from the WSOF promotion in 2017. Over those years he developed a reputation as being one of the most reckless fighters in the entire sport – willing to take three shots to land three of his own – and it even got to the point where fans were clamouring to see him in the UFC simply before his chin finally began to deteriorate.
Since joining the UFC he has been TKO’d twice – by Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier – but both of those fights were crazy wars of attrition, and it was hardly like Gaethje turned into Chuck Liddell circa 2010 overnight.
He can clearly still take a shot, it was more that Alvarez and Poirier were able to push him further than he’d been pushed before. Outside of that, he’s still the same fighter – a sneakily good wrestler who doesn’t look to use that tool, instead using it to stay on his feet and throw incredibly powerful leg kicks and punches. Sure, his defense isn’t the best, but when you hit as hard as Gaethje and can take a shot – for the time being at least – it’s all good.
I’m taking Gaethje here and it’s pretty much based purely around his insane toughness – Barboza can clearly survive a beating but he’s been fighting for a long time now, for the best part of a decade, and his chin has been cracked by less powerful strikers than Gaethje.
He also doesn’t handle pressure that well, as practically every fighter who’s beaten him – from Lee and Nurmagomedov to Michael Johnson and Tony Ferguson – were able to walk him down and force him backwards until he folded.
I think this should be an insanely exciting fight – one of the best of 2019 – as both men will come to throw down and both men will probably take a ridiculous amount of damage, but realistically Gaethje is the one who can take more and I suspect he hits with slightly more power, too. I’m taking him to take out Barboza in the 4th round.
The Pick: Gaethje via fourth round TKO