UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos: Predictions and Picks
The UFC returns to the ESPN network, rather than the ESPN+ streaming service this weekend, for their first show broadcast on the channel since March’s Gaethje vs. Barboza event. This time the show comes from Minneapolis, Minnesota, and we’ve got a pretty big Heavyweight fight in the main event.
Initially planned to be headlined by a rematch between former Welterweight champions Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley, the main event was changed to Junior Dos Santos vs. Francis Ngannou when Woodley suffered a hand injury. And you know what? I think I prefer the new main event, even if the card overall isn’t that strong.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos.
#1 Francis Ngannou vs. Junior Dos Santos
Now it seems like the chances of a return to the UFC for Brock Lesnar are dead in the water and a rematch between champion Daniel Cormier and the man he dethroned, Stipe Miocic, has been booked for UFC 241, you’d probably have to assume that the winner of this fight should be in line for the next title shot. Anything can happen in the UFC of course, but logic would certainly suggest that either Ngannou or Junior Dos Santos has more than earned a crack at the gold.
Cameroon’s Francis Ngannou famously already had his first title shot back in January 2018, and to say he failed miserably would be an understatement. ‘The Predator’ had looked unstoppable coming into his fight with Miocic, destroying the likes of Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski, and it felt like the UFC were practically ready to crown him as their next champion. In reality, though, there were a lot of unanswered questions surrounding Ngannou, most of them centered around his defensive wrestling and his cardio.
Miocic answered both of those questions and neither was positive for Ngannou. The champ was able to survive Ngannou’s early barrages, and the Cameroonian quickly tired out and succumbed to Miocic’s takedowns and ground-and-pound, losing a lopsided decision. A fight against the equally powerful-but-limited Derrick Lewis was supposed to right the ship for Ngannou, but instead, he appeared to have lost his mojo entirely and shied away from the majority of the exchanges to end up losing another decision.
Ngannou has since got back into the saddle in style, knocking out both top prospect Curtis Blaydes and former Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez in a matter of seconds, but it’s hard to take many conclusions from either of those fights; Ngannou’s always had the power in his fists to take anyone on the planet out like that, and we still don’t really know how well he’ll respond to adversity down the stretch.
Dos Santos, on the other hand, has suffered a lot of adversity in his long UFC career. Debuting back in 2008 with a stunning KO of Fabricio Werdum, ‘Cigano’ cut a path of destruction through everyone put in front of him until he knocked out Velasquez to claim Heavyweight gold in 2011. His title reign was short-lived, however; he stopped Frank Mir in his first defense but was then thoroughly beaten by Velasquez in their rematch, and again in their subsequent trilogy fight.
Worse for the Brazilian, Velasquez appeared to write the book on how to beat him; back Dos Santos straight up into the fence, rough him up in the clinch and give him no time to use his footwork and boxing skills. Miocic – although he came out on the wrong end of a contentious decision – and Overeem both had success against JDS using this method, and when a rematch with Miocic ended with the Brazilian badly beaten in under 3 minutes, it looked like his career at the top was over.
Surprisingly though, after taking more than a year off to heal up, Dos Santos has turned things around with 3 straight wins. Blagoy Ivanov, Tai Tuivasa and Lewis have all been thoroughly beaten by JDS, although like Ngannou, none of the three were able to really test whether his traditional weak points had been worked on.
This is a genuinely fascinating fight in that both men have the power in their fists to take out the other pretty quickly, and that naturally makes it more difficult to pick. In the end, though, I’m siding with Ngannou, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, ‘The Predator’ is less shopworn than Dos Santos, and while JDS has overcome some adversity in his recent fights – Tuivasa appeared to have him in some trouble at one point – he hasn’t faced someone with the dangerous skills of Ngannou in a long time. Lewis is perhaps as powerful a hitter, but he’s nowhere near as nuanced at setting up his big shots, as Ngannou did in his fight with Overeem for instance.
Secondly, I feel like while Dos Santos – almost purely a striker, and a boxer at that – simply doesn’t have the kind of tools required to really test Ngannou’s vulnerability to takedowns, ‘The Predator’ certainly has the kind of footwork that would allow him to corral JDS into the cage and test his own vulnerability. If he can back JDS up that way and hit him hard, the fight is likely over.
Strangely enough, Dos Santos’s best plan of action might well be to attempt to turn the fight into a low-percentage striking bout, aiming to lull Ngannou into a slow pace and simply out-box him, but even then I’m not sure that would work; the gunshy Ngannou seems to have been banished once again, thankfully for the fans.
I expect JDS to last longer than Blaydes and Velasquez did, simply because he doesn’t tend to rush forward as those fighters did, and Ngannou – a counterman at heart – might find the adjustment to backing Dos Santos up hard, to begin with. But at some point, I think he’ll back the Brazilian into the cage, and from there the fight will go swiftly downhill for the former champion.
The Pick: Ngannou via first round TKO