UFC on Fox 31: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 - Predictions and Picks
The UFC presents its final show on Fox this weekend from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and while it’s a solid enough card, it certainly doesn’t feel like the promotion is ending their tenure with the station with a bang.
We don’t have a title fight or even a likely title eliminator as a headliner – so it’s down to hoping for a lot of action rather than anything which will shake the UFC to the core. On a positive note, the fights are largely well-matched – meaning it should be hard to pick the winners correctly.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on Fox: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2.
#1 Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta
The convoluted nature of the UFC’s Lightweight division is in full effect here; a handful of years ago, smashing a contender like Edson Barboza in the way that Kevin Lee did back in April would’ve netted him a title shot or at least a top contender’s match. Instead, he’s faced with Iaquinta – no pushover, but not currently ranked in the top 5.
Granted, Iaquinta last fought for the UFC title – and put up a solid fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov, going the distance with the Russian – but it was a last-minute job and right now the New Yorker isn’t even above Barboza on the ladder.
Still, there’s some interest here – largely because the two men fought previously, at UFC 169 back in February 2014, with Iaquinta taking a unanimous decision. The fight was Lee’s UFC debut and it was excellent; personally, I scored it as a draw, as Lee recovered from a first-round knockdown to dominate Iaquinta in the second round, enough for a 10-8 in my book, before Iaquinta managed to do enough to edge the third round.
So how will this second fight go? Well, both men have improved since then, but they also largely remain the same fighters they were back in 2014. Iaquinta is still an excellent MMA boxer with a solid wrestling game to back everything up, while Lee is still one of the most powerful grapplers in the division – particularly from the top position – and he’s also extremely durable, as he showed in his fight with Barboza in April.
For me though, the big difference this time is in the experiences that the two men have had since that first outing. Lee has had 12 UFC fights to Iaquinta’s 7, and over that time he’s gradually climbed up the ladder, beating harder and harder opponents and his only recent loss was to Tony Ferguson in a fight he was winning before he gassed out.
Iaquinta meanwhile looked to be following a similar path until 2015, but a contract dispute with the UFC led to him sitting out for huge periods of time – he didn’t fight for two years between 2015 and 2017, and then sat out another year until the Khabib fight this year – and largely focusing on a career in real estate. Iaquinta now claims to be fully focused on his fighting career, but can we really be sure that’s the case?
In terms of how the men match up, I’d give Iaquinta the advantage on the feet, Lee the advantage on the ground. The big problem for Iaquinta, however, is that outside of a surprising KO loss to Leo Santos in 2015, Lee has shown a remarkable chin and ability to recover from big shots; Barboza, Francisco Trinaldo and Iaquinta himself all had him badly hurt and couldn’t put him down for good.
For me this is just another version of the original fight – both men have the same skillsets, albeit better versions of those skillsets, and they haven’t added a ton of new wrinkles really. The big difference is that Lee’s been more active, he seems to be the one who’s hungrier to reach the top, and over 5 rounds, I’m not sure that Iaquinta can stay off his back. And judging by his fights with Barboza, Michael Chiesa and Francisco Trinaldo, Lee has the skills to take out anyone once he gets them into that position.
The Pick: Lee via third round submission