UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
The UFC heads to St. Louis, Missouri this weekend for a Fight Night event that, on paper at least, looks like it should be fun.
UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento has a heavyweight headliner and plenty of exciting-sounding bouts underneath, making this one worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento.
#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
It's probably fair to say that Derrick Lewis has reached some rarified air in the UFC. No longer a title contender, even in the thin heavyweight division, 'The Black Beast' is probably past his best, having won just two of his last seven bouts.
Despite this, Lewis is still a reliable headliner, capable of finishing most of his foes and producing some truly wild moments in the octagon, ensuring his popularity never wanes. It's a spot that few fighters reach.
The last time we saw Lewis in action, though, he was well beaten by Jailton Almeida. Will the same repeat itself this weekend when he faces Rodrigo Nascimento?
It feels like a bit of a cop-out to say so, but the obvious answer is no. 'The Black Beast' has suffered plenty of losses, but they all tend to follow a similar trend; they either come to accomplished grapplers like Almeida or Sergei Spivac, or against brutally heavy hitters like Sergei Pavlovich.
Nascimento, realistically, is neither of those things. 'Yogi Bear' is riding a winning streak of three fights (four were it not for a win overturned due to a positive drug test) and he does sit at No.15 in the rankings.
However, the Brazilian is largely slow, has only finished one foe in the octagon, and while he does have powerful grappling, he also tends to run out of steam.
Lewis' cardio isn't the best in its own right, but while his grappling has never been strong, he does have the ability to wriggle out of bad positions on the ground, and if he can get back to his feet, his foes are in trouble.
Basically, Nascimento doesn't appear to have the speed and explosive ability to deal with 'The Black Beast', and when you consider that the slower and less heavy-handed Chris Daukaus turned his lights out, it's easy to imagine what Lewis might do.
There's always the chance that Lewis doesn't deliver the goods and ends up blanketed for either a submission or decision, but this weekend feels like a good match-up for him. The pick is 'The Black Beast'.
The Pick: Lewis via first-round KO
#2. UFC welterweight bout: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
When Joaquin Buckley took out Vicente Luque in March to crash into the welterweight division's top ten, he had one wish from the UFC: to fight in his hometown of St. Louis, Missouri next.
Thankfully, Dana White and company have given 'New Mansa' what he wanted and he's now set to feature in the co-headliner this weekend.
The risk for Buckley, of course, is that he's not fighting an opponent who could vault him from his current ranking of No.11 into the top ten. Instead, he's faced with a foe who is very unheralded but looks remarkably tough.
Nursulton Ruziboev hasn't been in the spotlight yet, but it's hard not to be impressed by what he has done. Sporting a record of 34-8-2 with his last loss coming in 2019, he debuted in the octagon in 2023 and destroyed Brunno Ferreira in just over a minute.
Most recently, he used his heavy hands to take out Sedriques Dumas too, coincidentally on the same card that saw Buckley dispatch Luque.
A native of Uzbekistan, 'Black' has boxed professionally before, but with 20 submission wins to his name, he's clearly more of a grappler. The thing that really stands out, though, is his finish rate. Of his 34 career wins, just two have gone the distance.
Essentially, if Buckley wants to win at home, he will need to avoid Ruziboev's takedowns, and also ensure that he doesn't get hit cleanly on the feet, too.
That won't be easy for 'New Mansa', but he clearly has plenty of skills of his own. Best known for his viral spinning back kick knockout of Impa Kasanganay in 2020, Buckley has really shone since his move to 170 pounds in 2023.
The move has meant that while he has retained his explosive speed and power, he's no longer undersized against most of his opponents, something that tended to lead to his losses at 185 pounds.
Sure, Buckley was knocked out on three occasions back then, but a lot of those finishes were set up by him being outmuscled, something that should, theoretically at least, no longer happen.
The worry for him here is that Ruziboev might actually be his toughest opponent yet. Sure, Luque had a far bigger name and resume, but 'The Silent Assassin' may be past his prime now, and he certainly didn't look at his best in his bout with 'New Mansa'.
This one is a close fight to pick, largely because 'Black' just hasn't been tested at this kind of level just yet. Overall, Buckley should probably be favored due to his experience and hometown advantage, but to see the St. Louis crowd deflated wouldn't be a shocker, either.
The Pick: Buckley via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a light-heavyweight bout, Alonzo Menifield takes on Carlos Ulberg. This fight pits two of the more on-form fighters in the 205-pound division against one another, and if the winner can impress, they could vault into contention.
Menifield is unbeaten in his last five, using his heavy hands to climb up to No.11 in the rankings. However, 'Atomic' still has the reputation of a glass cannon of sorts, largely due to his tendency to slow down if he can't get an opponent out fast.
Ulberg, on the other hand, has been allowed to quietly develop his game after a debut loss evaporated a lot of his hype. A training partner of Israel Adesanya, 'Black Jag' has now adapted his sharp striking for the octagon, and won his last fight via submission, a real turn for the books.
Menifield has the kind of power to sway any fight in his favor, but overall, the style clash here means that the pick is Ulberg via second-round KO.
In a lightweight tilt, Diego Ferreira faces Mateusz Rebecki. At 39, Ferreira has now been around a long time, but his most recent bout, which came a year ago, showed he still has some skills left. He violently knocked out Michael Johnson with one punch.
Rebecki is less well known, but thus far, the native of Poland has looked like a wrecking machine. He's 19-1, and has already won three bouts in the octagon in one-sided fashion.
Ferreira will be his toughest test to date, but the fact that he's past his prime does not bode well at all. The pick, then, is Rebecki via first-round KO.
At featherweight, Alex Caceres takes on Sean Woodson. This fight pits two long, lanky fighters against one another, and the result should come down to which fighter can use their range the best.
Of the two, though, Caceres seems to be better equipped to win. 'Bruce Leeroy' should probably be considered an aging veteran at this stage, but he's younger than fans might think at 35, and has dangerous skills in all areas.
Woodson is riding a five-fight unbeaten run, but 'The Sniper' is also somewhat porous defensively, and it's likely he'll leave openings for Caceres to capitalize on. This one will be close, but the pick is Caceres via decision.
Finally, in a heavyweight clash, Waldo Cortes-Acosta faces Robelis Despaigne. An Olympic bronze medalist in taekwondo, Despaigne received a lot of hype after needing just 18 seconds to spark out Josh Parisian in his octagon debut, and this should be another interesting test for him.
However, the fact is that the UFC has seemingly booked the Cuban perfectly. Cortes-Acosta has a stronger record than Parisian and beat Andrei Arlovski in his last fight, but he's also slow and plodding, and that should play into Despaigne's hands.
Given Despaigne's lack of experience, there's every chance 'Salsa Boy' works him over in the clinch for a grinding decision, but it feels more likely that things go the other way. The pick, therefore, is Despaigne via first-round KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight bout: Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
UFC lightweight bout: Terrance McKinney vs. Esteben Ribovics
UFC strawweight bout: Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington
UFC welterweight bout: Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters
UFC flyweight bout: Charles Johnson vs. Jake Hadley
UFC welterweight bout: Jared Gooden vs. Kevin Jousset
UFC flyweight bout: JJ Aldrich vs. Veronica Hardy