UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX next weekend. This Fight Night event isn't the strongest on paper, but some solid matchups are tucked away on the card.
UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho features a major middleweight headliner and some other fun-sounding bouts.
Only time will tell if the event can deliver more than the promotion's previous Fight Night offering, but the card is better at least.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho.
#1. UFC middleweight bout: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
While the winner of this middleweight bout isn't likely to challenge for the title next, it's still a very big fight. In fact, given that Jared Cannonier remains ranked at No.5 in the division, a win for either man could propel them into a title eliminator fight next.
'The Killa Gorilla' will need to perform better than he did in his last bout if he wants to win. In fact, there's an argument he should not be fighting here.
Cannonier's last fight saw him suffer a knockout at the hands of Nassourdine Imavov. While the finish was controversial, the former title challenger still took plenty of damage—and the bout took place on June 8, just eleven weeks before this event.
Given that this fight was announced on August 6, it seems Cannonier is taking a huge chance stepping into the octagon so soon after being finished.
Thankfully for 'The Killa Gorilla,' he's arguably fighting the one opponent who, theoretically, shouldn't look to bang with him on the feet.
That doesn't make Caio Borralho any less dangerous, though. 'The Natural' has slowly climbed the UFC ranks and is now 16-1 with six Octagon wins.
A tremendous grappler, the Brazilian's best area is on the ground, particularly if he can get on top. He's not always that exciting to watch, but that's because most of his opponents haven't been able to shake him off.
He'll need to step up again to beat Cannonier. 'The Killa Gorilla' rarely finds himself grounded, is a bully in the clinch, and carries violent power in his shots.
However, Borralho's most recent fight showed another side to his game. He took out Paul Craig with a salvo of punches, scoring his first TKO since arriving on the big stage.
Sure, Craig is renowned for being a little chinny, but to see him dropped and put away was still impressive.
This win shouldn't mean Borralho suddenly has the striking to beat Cannonier - a man who outboxed Sean Strickland - but it should give 'The Killa Gorilla' something more to worry about.
Overall, the stylistic match favors Cannonier here. He should be capable of stopping Borralho's takedown and piecing him up on the feet.
However, it's hard to pick him in good conscience, particularly because he was stopped two months ago and appears to have taken this fight on short notice.
Instead, it feels likely that Borralho might stun him to set up a takedown, and then win the fight on the ground in a bit of an upset.
The Pick: Borralho via second-round submission
#2. UFC welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
This event's co-headliner is a genuinely intriguing welterweight bout featuring one of the division's fastest-rising prospects against arguably its toughest gatekeeper.
Everyone knows what Neil Magny brings to the table at this. A member of the UFC roster since 2012, 'The Haitian Sensation' is a skilled fighter in every facet of the game.
Magny is a lanky 170-pounder at 6ft 3in, and he uses his reach to his advantage both on the feet and on the ground. He's capable of keeping an opponent on the end of his jab, and on the ground, he's difficult to shake off if he can take top position.
However, the TUF 16 veteran tends to struggle against dangerous specialists and elite welterweights.
His last three defeats, for instance, came to Gilbert Burns, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry. All three men are amongst the best welterweights in the world, and all three beat him in their signature fashion.
His wins over Mike Malott and Phil Rowe, though, showed that he still easily has enough to get past the lower-level fighters in the division. So, where does Michael Morales sit?
At age 25, the Ecuador native has proven to be a dangerous prospect. He's 16-0 with four of those wins coming in the Octagon, and he's largely been flawless.
Morales, a hard hitter with rapid punches, most recently defeated the underrated Jake Matthews, basically outboxing him for three straight rounds.
It was impressive because, before this, he'd destroyed everyone he'd faced, but against the tougher Matthews, he was forced to show more poise.
Essentially, this fight should come down to whether Morales can cut through Magny's defense and land the heavy shot he'll need to dispatch 'The Haitian Sensation'.
It won't be easy as Magny's chin isn't awful, and the Ecuadorian doesn't possess the one-hit power of Alex Pereira or Justin Gaethje. However, he appears far quicker than Magny, which could be the main factor.
Overall, unless Morales comes in looking overawed, this should be his fight to lose. His explosive style is the exact kind that has given Magny trouble on so many occasions, and the veteran is getting no younger.
The Pick: Morales via second-round TKO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a strawweight bout, Angela Hill faces Tabatha Ricci. This fight pits a hardened veteran against one of the better up-and-comers at 115 pounds, and so it should be interesting.
Hill has come a long way since her TUF 20 appearance, when she was a one-dimensional striker. She scored a submission win in her last fight. Remarkably, at the age of 39, 'Overkill' is 4-1 in her last five.
Ricci, on the other hand, has only lost once since moving to 115 pounds in 2021. More to the point, 'Baby Shark' has beaten some good fighters, including Tecia Pennington (Torres) and Gillian Robertson.
Hill is experienced and tough enough to win this fight, but it feels doubtful. Ricci is probably the lesser striker, but she's also good enough to provide a takedown threat, which should prevent Hill from really opening up.
It's unlikely that 'Baby Shark' will get a finish, but expect her to do enough with her takedowns, ground control and striking to win. The pick is Ricci via decision.
At middleweight, Edmen Shahbazyan faces Gerald Meerschaert. This should be a good test of whether Shahbazyan really is back into a good groove.
'Golden Boy' looked excellent in his most recent win over AJ Dobson, but Meerschaert is definitely a step up. 'GM3' is a deadly finisher in every possible area, being able to dispatch foes with both submissions and strikes.
However, while Meerschaert is great offensively, he's less than great defensively, which means he's likely to leave himself wide open here. If Shahbazyan can get back to the style he had a few years ago, then he should win.
Will that be the case? It's hard to say, but at the age of 36 and with just one win in his last three, it's hard to trust Meerschaert. Therefore, the pick is Shahbazyan via KO.
Finally, the middleweight final of TUF 32 sees Ryan Loder take on Robert Valentin. It's hard to take a lot from TUF performances these days, especially as the show doesn't unearth prospects like it once did.
Given that neither man is that young, neither has beaten any notable opponents, and they have similar experience levels, this is a coin flip.
Valentin is the pick via decision, though, purely because he looked slightly better on the show.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC featherweight bout: Danny Silva vs. Dennis Buzukja
UFC middleweight bout: Zachary Reese vs. Jose Medina
UFC lightweight bout: Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop
UFC bantamweight bout: Josiane Nunes vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
UFC flyweight bout: Wang Cong vs. Victoria Leonardo