UFC Predictions: 4 marquee strawweight bouts on the horizon
The UFC strawweight division is arguably the most competitive and interesting women's bracket in all of combat sports. After long-reigning strawweight queen Joanna Jędrzejczyk was dethroned in 2017, the belt has changed hands five times.
Check out the history of the strawweight division below:
Rose Namajunas, Jessica Andrade, Zhang Weili and Carla Esparza have all held the belt in the last five years, with Esparza being the current titleholder. 'Cookie Monster' will look to defend her strap at UFC 281 in October, while the rest of the contenders battle their way towards title contention.
With four marquee strawweight bouts on the horizon, we thought we'd share our predictions.
#4. Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan
Mackenzie Dern, a grappling prodigy, has transitioned very effectively into MMA. A former IBJJF champion, Dern is levels above her peers on the mat which has shown in her UFC career so far. Since signing with the promotion in 2018, she has already picked up four submission wins and sits at No.5 in the 115-pound rankings.
At UFC Vegas 61, Dern will square off against Yan Xiaonan in the main event. Xiaonan has been on the roster since 2017 and launched her UFC career with five successive decision wins. Two losses on the trot have halted her momentum and she sits one place behind Dern on the strawweight ladder.
Yan Xiaonan is yet to record a finish inside the octagon, while Mackenzie Dern has never been stopped in her professional career. Xiaonan primarily relies on her striking accuracy and volume to outpoint her opponents and will likely be one step ahead of her American counterpart in the stand-up exchanges.
Xiaonan doesn't have the power to put away Dern and will need to be flawless for all five rounds if she is to emerge victorious. However, the Chinese standout has never fought for 25 minutes in her career and her cardio will likely be put to the test in this one.
On the flipside, Dern has fought 25 minutes previously, and despite losing on that occasion, looked relatively comfortable in the final round. The jiu-jitsu phenom will have to be patient against Xiaonan and wait for the opportune moment to attack a takedown. If she manages to take the fight to the mat, it's only a matter of time before she finds a submission.
While a striking-heavy unanimous decision win for Xiaonan is certainly well within the realm of possibility, Dern's grappling prowess might just turn out to be the x-factor on the night.
Our Pick: Mackenzie Dern via third-round submission
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#3. Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
Marina Rodriguez has already beaten both Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan. The Brazilian strawweight is tantalizingly close to a shot at gold and currently occupies the No.3 spot in the rankings, behind former champions Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili.
Rodriguez is seemingly one win away from a title shot and will look to edge closer to contention when she takes on fellow Brazilian Amanda Lemos at UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi. Lemos sits five spots behind Rodriguez in the strawweight rankings and a loss here could see her title aspirations take a massive hit.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos is an enticing matchup on paper. Both Brazilian strikers are incredibly technical and efficient with their stand-up, making this an intriguing pairing. Additionally, both fighters are 35 years of age as well and find themselves in a limited window if they are to compete for the belt.
In terms of grappling, both Rodriguez and Lemos have shown inklings of what they're capable of on the canvas. The former has one submission win on her record, while the latter has three.
Rodriguez's momentum could prove to be her trump card in this bout. She is riding a four-fight win streak and has beaten the likes of Dern, Xiaonan, Michelle Waterson, Amanda Ribas and Tecia Torres during her time in the UFC, all of whom are inside the top 15 at 115 pounds.
Considering Rodriguez's strength, and the fact that she pushed strawweight queen Carla Esparza to the limit in her lone career loss, she should be the favorite going into the Lemos fight.
Our Pick: Marina Rodriguez via unanimous decision
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#2. Angela Hill vs. Emily Ducote
Since joining the UFC in 2017, Angela Hill has struggled with both consistency and bad luck. A former Invicta FC champion, Hill's UFC record stands at a disappointing 8-10. However, out of her 10 losses inside the octagon, quite a few were highly debatable decisions.
At UFC Orlando in December, Hill will be looking to defend her No.12 spot in the strawweight rankings against Emily Ducote, who is being touted by many as a future title challenger.
Emily Ducote signed with the UFC earlier this year. She made her promotional debut against ranked contender Jessica Penne at UFC Long Island. She came away with a dominant unanimous decision to break into the rankings and looks set to make a splash in the strawweight division.
Meanwhile, Angela Hill is fighting to salvage her place on the UFC roster. Most fighters with her octagon record would've been cut from the promotion by now, and another loss might just turn out to be the final straw. She has won just two of her last seven bouts.
Neither 115-pounder has been finished in quite some time, and as such, this matchup will likely go the distance. Ducote, who is nine years younger and has the momentum of a four-fight win streak, might just prove to be too much for the always-game Hill, who has shown signs of slowing down in recent times.
Our Pick: Emily Ducote via unanimous decision
Can’t wait
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#1. Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili – UFC strawweight championship bout
Carla Esparza, the inaugural UFC strawweight champion, re-claimed her title earlier this year when she picked up her second win over former titleholder Rose Namajunas. In her first title defense, Esparza will lock horns with another former champion in Zhang Weili, who is also looking to re-claim the 115-pound belt.
The duo will contest the title in the co-headliner of UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York City in November.
Carla Esparza is arguably the best offensive wrestler in the division, a tool she has used to great effect throughout her career, especially against striking-heavy foes. 'Cookie Monster' is also very physically strong for her weight class. When she secures top position or side control, things usually turn out bad for her opponents.
Unfortunately for Esparza, she faces probably the worst stylistic matchup available to her at 115 pounds when she takes on Zhang Weili.
Weili is also among the most physically intimidating figures in the division and has the takedown defense to deal with Esparza's arsenal of attacks. In the striking department, 'Magnum' is head and shoulders above the reigning strawweight queen, evident in her championship wins over former champions Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade.
Esparza will need to be aggressive right from the get-go if she is to defend her throne. An early finish may just be her only route to victory. If she's unable to take Weili down to the ground, the strawweight title will likely change hands for the sixth time in five years.
Our Pick: Zhang Weili via second-round TKO
![Zhang Weili [Image via @WrestlePurists on Twitter]](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2022/09/89385-16645303361209-1920.jpg)