UFC Predictions: UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez - Predictions and Picks
This Saturday sees the UFC headline a pay-per-view with a UFC Flyweight title fight for the first time since 2015, as Deiveson Figueiredo defends his title against challenger Alex Perez.
The co-main event also sees a UFC Flyweight title on the line, as Valentina Shevchenko defends the women’s version against Jennifer Maia.
Overall it isn’t the strongest UFC pay-per-view of 2020, but there’s still plenty to like and to analyze here.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez.
Also, listen in to the Cage Theory podcast as they look forward to UFC 255 and talk about everything you need to know ahead of the event!
#1 UFC Flyweight Title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez
After needing to defeat Joseph Benavidez on two occasions – one after missing weight – to claim the vacant UFC Flyweight crown, this will be Figueiredo’s first title defense. Of course, because it’s 2020, Perez wasn’t the first opponent that the UFC had in mind for the Brazilian.
That was, of course, former UFC Bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt, who would’ve dropped to 125lbs for the first time to take his opportunity. However, last month it was announced that Garbrandt had torn his bicep, and so Perez – who is currently 6-1 in the UFC – would step in instead.
Fascinatingly, this fight marks the first time that a graduate of Dana White’s Contender Series will challenge for a UFC title. So can Perez pull it off?
It’ll be a hugely tricky ask. Simply put, Figueiredo is an absolute monster inside the Octagon. The God of War debuted in the UFC back in 2017 after going 11-0 on the regional circuit and has since put together an 8-1 record in the promotion.
Originally fighting under the tutelage of former UFC stars Iuri and Ildemar Alcantara, power is the name of the game for Figueiredo. A ridiculously powerful Flyweight, it doesn’t matter whether he’s on the ground or on the feet – he’s aiming to hurt his opponents with brute force.
That isn’t to say that Figueiredo isn’t a technical fighter, too. His combination striking is amongst the best that the UFC has to offer, and he’s also a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. But the mere fact that he’s finished six of his eight UFC victims tells you a lot, particularly in a division where a lot of fights go the distance.
Thus far, the only man to really give Figueiredo problems was Jussier Formiga, who stands out as the only man to defeat The God of War. Wrestler Jared Brooks did take him to a split decision in 2017, too, but realistically, Figueiredo won that fight comfortably despite giving up takedowns. So how did Formiga succeed?
Essentially, he was able to use a patient approach in his striking to set up his takedowns – and obviously, it helped that he’s a legitimate world-class grappler who can hold any fighter down. However, based on the rest of Figueiredo’s UFC tenure, there’s also an argument that he simply caught The God of War on an off-day.
Perez, to be fair, definitely has a skill-set that could bode for some success against Figueiredo. For the most part, the challenger is reliant on his speed rather than power. Perez tends to fling rapid-fire strikes at his opponents, using them to both cause damage and to allow him to get inside. From there, he tends to continue firing clinch-based shots before looking for takedowns.
On the ground, Perez is an excellent grappler who’s clearly adept at capitalizing on opportunities. We saw this in his UFC submissions of Carls John de Tomas and Jordan Espinosa, and in his Contender Series tapout of Kevin Gray.
Obviously, his biggest win came at UFC 250, when he took out Formiga in the first round with a series of vicious leg kicks. Essentially, like John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez before him, Perez was able to succeed against the Brazilian, where Figueiredo failed simply because of his massive speed advantage.
So basically, this title fight should come down to speed vs. power. However, where I see problems arising for Perez is that while he loves to fire rapid strikes at his opponent, he’s also open to being hit back. That’s what cost him against Benavidez – who knocked Perez out in 2018 – and could’ve gotten him into trouble in some of his other UFC fights, too.
If Perez comes into this fight with the same attitude he’s come into his other UFC fights with, the likelihood is that he’s going to get knocked out. The problem is that he just doesn’t seem capable of the measured, patient approach that Formiga took against Figueiredo.
Perez is aggressive to a fault, and so we’re likely in for a wild, absolutely tremendous fight on Saturday. But for as much as he’ll want to take the fight to the champ, his usual gameplan will probably play into Figueiredo’s hands. With a striker as powerful as Figueiredo, it’s too dangerous to trade shots, and Perez will probably find that out the hard way.
The Pick: Figueiredo via second-round KO