UFC Predictions: UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno Predictions and Picks
After a couple of weaker UFC cards, this weekend sees the promotion return to pay-per-view with UFC 256. And while the show features a main event thrown together on late notice, overall, this is a pretty cool-looking card.
The main event sees the UFC Flyweight title on the line as Deiveson Figueiredo defends against Brandon Moreno. On the other hand, the UFC Lightweight division is spotlighted in the co-main event in the form of Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira.
Of course, the whole thing is dependent on late-notice changes – COVID-19 is bound to affect one of these fights at least. But overall, this looks like a potentially strong UFC show.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno.
Also tune in to the Cage Theory MMA podcast, where the upcoming UFC 256 event is discussed in detail!
#1 UFC Flyweight Title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
Incredibly, this title fight was put together just three weeks before this show, making it one of the fastest championship turnarounds in UFC history. Other former UFC champions like Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes defended their titles on back-to-back pay-per-views. But they at least had months between those shows.
Simply put, the fact that Figueiredo’s been willing to take this fight makes him a total madman. However, it’s also worth noting that Moreno, his challenger, also fought on November 21st and actually had a longer fight. Really then, both men deserve massive credit.
UFC 255 was a good show for both fighters. Figueiredo dispatched top contender Alex Perez with a guillotine choke in just under two minutes, while Moreno took a little longer to defeat Brandon Royval when Royval’s shoulder was dislocated.
It’s worth noting that while Figueiredo was barely tested in his fight, Moreno definitely was. His fight was a back-and-forth affair that could well have gone either way had Royval not been injured. However, there’s no denying that The Assassin Baby is a dangerous contender.
Moreno is 6-2-1 in the UFC, and he’s looked better than ever since returning in 2019. Prior to defeating Royval, he took out the unbeaten Kai Kara-France, and then defeated long-time UFC veteran Jussier Formiga.
Primarily a grappler, the Mexican native has excellent takedowns, is strong, particularly from the top, and has a good submission game too. However, we’ve also seen him run into some trouble in the UFC, particularly in his losses but also in some of his other fights.
Firstly, while he’s a willing striker, he’s also overly wild with his punches and kicks. He’s more than happy to come flying in with crazy aggression. And in his UFC losses to both Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja, that style led directly to his downfall.
His fight with Pantoja and his draw with Askar Askarov also showed that while he’s a great grappler from the scramble, he’s also susceptible to putting himself into bad positions, largely due to his own aggression.
The Pantoja fight is perhaps the most telling in terms of how he matches with Figueiredo because essentially, the current UFC champ could easily be seen as a souped-up version of his countryman. Pantoja has amazing submission skills and hits heavily, but he lacks the sheer athleticism and explosiveness of The God of War.
However, the fact that Figueiredo is such an explosive fighter could play into Moreno’s hands. Sure, The God of War has incredible technique in his offense, as we’ve seen throughout his UFC career. However, he’s also more than willing to simply throw down with an opponent, which could give Moreno the opening he needs.
Personally, though, I can’t see it happening. To me, Moreno is outgunned in all areas in this fight. And even if Figueiredo goes toe-to-toe with him, does he have a lot to be worried about? Well, not really. Moreno’s never knocked an opponent out in the UFC and just doesn’t have the kind of concussive power that Figueiredo possesses.
And while he is excellent at catching a foe with a submission in the scramble, it’s hard to imagine him catching a grappler as good as Figueiredo, particularly after seeing him struggle with Pantoja and Askarov.
Basically, it’s going to take a technically proficient, incredibly calm fighter to defeat Figueiredo, probably using a similar gameplan that Formiga did when he caught the champ on an off-day in 2019. I just don’t see Moreno as that fighter.
The Assassin Baby might survive for longer than Perez did, but I still don’t see this leaving the second round. Figueiredo by TKO is my pick.
The Pick: Figueiredo via second-round TKO