UFC Predictions: UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2 predictions and picks
This weekend marks the third UFC show of 2021, and depending on how things go, it could well turn out to be the biggest of the year. The show in question? UFC 257, of course.
The main event of the card sees the return of Conor McGregor, as he rematches Dustin Poirier. And in the co-main, Michael Chandler makes his UFC debut against Dan Hooker.
Overall, it’s a fantastic card, and the small amount of fans in attendance at Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena should be in for a treat.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2.
#1 UFC Lightweight division: Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier
So naturally, given that this is McGregor’s first UFC appearance in a year, this fight is a pretty huge deal. However, it’s also far bigger than his last fight, a sub-minute thrashing of Donald Cerrone.
Not only was that fight at 170lbs – not McGregor’s natural weight – but Cerrone, no offense intended, was past his prime and always felt like ripe pickings for The Notorious One.
On the other hand, Poirier is one of the most dangerous men in the UFC’s packed Lightweight division. Sure, McGregor easily knocked him out in the first round when they did battle as Featherweights at UFC 178 in 2014. But things have changed a lot since then.
The Diamond was a good fighter then. He had an excellent ground game and carried knockout power, but his overall striking was a little undeveloped. And more importantly, he appeared to be psyched out by McGregor before the fight had begun.
The fight was Poirier’s last outing in the UFC at 145lbs. Since moving up to 155lbs, he’s won 10 of his 13 fights in the UFC, with his only losses coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Michael Johnson.
Along the way, The Diamond has developed a pretty scary pressure-boxing game based around walking his foe down to land heavy punches. Poirier’s boxing game has come on leaps and bounds from a technical standpoint, but where he really stands out is in terms of his killer instinct.
Basically, if Poirier gets an opponent hurt, he’s likely to finish them. And in the UFC, he’s taken out the likes of Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez, swarming them and leaving them no room to breathe, let alone survive.
However, despite Poirier’s improvements, I’m still not too sure that he matches up all that well with McGregor.
The UFC’s biggest-ever star, it’s quite easy to forget that The Notorious One got to the top of the UFC through his skills inside the Octagon as well as his charisma and ability on the mic.
McGregor cut a swathe through the UFC’s Featherweight division upon his arrival in 2013, winning six straight fights – including his KO of Poirier – en route to claiming Jose Aldo’s UFC Featherweight title.
Sure, it’s arguable that McGregor’s ground game was always a weakness. Still, the truth is that during his entire UFC tenure, only Nurmagomedov and Nate Diaz have been able to expose that.
And notably, nobody’s been able to outstrike the Irishman, point-blank. Not only does McGregor carry incredible power in his punches – particularly in his left hand – but he’s a creative striker, as we saw in his UFC win over Cerrone, which was set up with shoulder strikes and a head kick.
However, McGregor isn’t just a power striker. Few fighters in the UFC have possessed the timing and accuracy of the Irishman. And it’s that skill, combined with his power, that took him to his wins over Aldo, Poirier, and Alvarez.
That’s why I’m favouring The Notorious One here. Sure, he hasn’t fought in the UFC very much at all since 2016, and he’s had plenty of outside distractions. But put quite simply, stylistically, he represents a bad match for Poirier.
That’s because, for all of his improvements in the UFC, Poirier’s pressure-boxing game won’t work if McGregor doesn’t give him a target to really hit. And as we’ve seen before, nobody has the counter-striking skills of The Notorious One.
It might anger the fans who are probably dying for him to lose, but I suspect the result will be the same as it was in 2014 here.
The Pick: McGregor via first-round KO