UFC Predictions: UFC 258: Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns - Predictions and Picks
This weekend sees the UFC present its latest pay-per-view, UFC 258, which takes place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
The main event sees UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defend his title against Gilbert Burns, while flyweights Maycee Barber and Alexa Grasso clash in the co-main.
However, UFC 258 just isn’t anywhere near as strong as UFC 257, nor does it come close to the upcoming UFC 259 card. Nevertheless, it is a chance to see a true great in action in the form of Usman.
On that note, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 258: Usman vs Burns.
#1 UFC Welterweight title: Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
Initially planned for last summer’s blockbuster UFC 251 card, a positive COVID-19 test for Burns delayed this event. To be honest, that might be a good thing.
UFC 251 instead saw Usman comfortably defeat mega-star Jorge Masvidal in the main event of a show that drew over a million pay-per-view buys. Does that mean that more fans will now be interested in Usman? Quite possibly.
If they are, it’s with good reason. ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is easily the best Welterweight on the planet right now, and he may have a claim to being the best pound-for-pound fighter too.
Usman, a fabulous wrestler and a phenomenal athlete, has his physicality as his best attribute. He has essentially been able to bully every opponent he has faced in the UFC. It doesn’t matter whether that involves taking them down, beating them up in the clinch or pressuring them with an underrated striking game.
Does ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ have any weaknesses? It’s honestly hard to tell. He may well be susceptible to submissions – his only career loss, pre-UFC - came by tapout. But after arriving in the UFC, no opponent has been able to take him down to test that supposed 'weakness'.
While it’s arguable that his striking isn’t as pinpoint as someone like Stephen Thomson or Masvidal's, it does not matter when Usman can simply ragdoll them into the fence or take them down.
Burns is a bit of an interesting opponent for Usman. ‘Durinho’ has a bit of an understated UFC record – 12-3 – but it’s only since he made the shift to Welterweight in 2019 that we’ve seen the best of him.
Since then, he has reeled off four straight wins, each more impressive than the other. A world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Burns has now developed a strong pressure-striking game, and he’s a more than an adequate wrestler, allowing both sides of his offensive game to flourish.
However, that may not be enough against Usman. For all of his developments in wrestling, the Brazilian is still worlds away from Usman. With the likes of Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley unable to take Usman down, Burns could struggle to do so.
More worrying, though, is the fact that Burns could correctly be described as a fireplug. At 5’10” and a 71” reach, he is giving up three inches of height and four of reach to Usman. And against a fighter capable of both landing strikes from long range and abusing a foe in the clinch, it doesn’t bode well for his prospects.
Burns has developed a lot in the last few years. But this fight could go along the same lines as his 2016 UFC loss to Michel Prazeres, who has a similar style to Usman’s but isn’t close to his ability.
I don’t foresee a finish here for ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’, but I’d be gobsmacked if he’s no longer the UFC Welterweight champion come Sunday.
The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision.