UFC Predictions: UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2

UFC 268 features two title fights and looks like one of 2021's best events

After a blockbuster show in the form of UFC 267, this weekend sees the UFC visit New York City for UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2.

UFC 268 looks like an absolutely loaded card overall, complete with two title fights and a major lightweight clash on tap.

We're so ready to run this one 🔙

🏆 Who are you taking in the rematch Saturday?

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So with plenty here to excite all UFC fans, this is one event that nobody ought to consider missing. With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2.

#1. UFC welterweight title: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington

Kamaru Usman knocked Colby Covington out in their first meeting at UFC 245

If we’re honest, on paper this fight doesn’t make a lot of sense. We’ve already seen it once, back at UFC 245 in December 2019.

That fight saw Kamaru Usman make the first defense of his newly-won UFC welterweight title, knocking Colby Covington out in the fifth round. It wasn’t a one-sided fight by any means but, realistically, Usman was ahead going into the final round and sealed the deal by finishing ‘Chaos’.

Since then, Covington has fought just once – a late TKO of Tyron Woodley – and in all honesty hasn’t completely earned this rematch.

Usman, on the other hand, has cut a path of destruction through the division, taking out Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal twice. He has looked better every time he’s stepped into the octagon.

So why has the UFC booked this fight? Essentially, it’s because Usman doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 contender right now. Covington is at least a known entity in the division who’s willing to talk plenty of trash.

Strangely, it doesn’t feel like ‘Chaos’ has been talking all that much coming into this one. After all, how do you insult someone who’s already broken your jaw?

So does Covington stand any chance of dethroning ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ this time around? It feels doubtful.

Finding The Finish 👊

The champ @Usman84kg breaks down the end of his first fight with Colby Covington.

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Covington has undoubtedly been successful in the UFC, beating the likes of Woodley, Rafael dos Ajos and Robbie Lawler, but those wins were built around pressure. Essentially, ‘Chaos’ used the threat of his takedowns to back them up and overwhelm them with volume striking.

Against Usman, however, that threat largely doesn’t exist. ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ has never been taken down in his UFC career, and it doesn’t seem likely that Covington will be the man to change that. After all, he couldn’t in five rounds two years ago.

That means that ‘Chaos’ will be left to strike with the champion. While he’s a capable boxer, he doesn’t hit with the power of Usman, nor does he possess the ramrod jab that ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ has developed.

Overall, it simply doesn’t feel like enough has changed since their first fight to justify picking Covington in this one. If anything, Usman’s striking has developed even further since then, meaning it’s likely he’ll finish his rival more quickly this time.

The Pick: Usman via third round TKO

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