UFC Predictions: UFC 276: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
This weekend sees UFC 276 go down from Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena, and to say that this looks like a blockbuster event would be an understatement.
UFC 276 features two title bouts at the top of the card, as well as a number of other massive fights throughout the night.
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So with plenty at stake, from gold to bragging rights, this is one event that simply cannot be missed. With that, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 276: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier.
#1. UFC middleweight title: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
After fighting in two rematches in his most recent bouts, defeating Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya has the chance to knock off a new contender for the first time since his 2020 bout with Paulo Costa this weekend.
‘The Last Stylebender’ is faced with Jared Cannonier, who earned his shot at the gold by defeating Derek Brunson and Kelvin Gastelum. He’s gone 5-1 since dropping to middleweight in 2018, with the only loss coming to Whittaker. So, can he really pull off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history?
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Here are the opening odds for Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier:
Jared Cannonier +275 (11/4)
Israel Adesanya -325 (4/13)
(odds via @betonline_ag) 🏆 #UFC276 https://t.co/WjnFifnlj4
To tell the truth, it feels highly unlikely. Stylistically speaking, Adesanya appears to be a horrendous match for ‘The Killa Gorilla’. Of course, anyone with the knockout power of the challenger can’t be counted out entirely.
The issue that Cannonier is likely to have is that he probably isn’t a good enough wrestler to shoot in from the outside, tackle Adesanya to the ground and keep him there for lengthy periods of time. That means he’s going to have to enter the danger zone to try to close the distance, and to do so will be massively risky.
Adesanya has probably the best counter-striking game in the entire UFC. He possesses perfect timing, he’s as quick as a cobra, and he carries plenty of power in his own right, too. Outside of his loss to the much larger Jan Blachowicz, he’s not only never lost, he’s barely been tested.
Essentially, this fight is highly likely to look like Cannonier’s loss to Whittaker, with ‘The Killa Gorilla’ attempting to close the distance to land bombs, only to be picked off by nastier counters from the champion.
Whittaker could not finish Cannonier off, but as we saw in his own fights with Adesanya, he doesn’t possess the timing and quickness of ‘The Last Stylebender’.
With that in mind, it seems likely that Adesanya will channel his inner Anderson Silva, catch Cannonier with something nasty as he comes in, and finish him off with strikes early in the fight.
The Pick: Adesanya via second-round KO
#2. UFC featherweight title: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Most of the trilogies we’ve seen in the UFC come about when the fighters involved go 1-1 in their first two bouts, but this one is different.
In this case, Alexander Volkanovski has already beaten Max Holloway twice, first taking away his featherweight title and then defending it successfully against him in a rematch. However, the result of that rematch was somewhat contentious, and since then, ‘Blessed’ has proven that he’s still, at worst, the second-best 145lber in the promotion.
So, can he find a way to defeat ‘Alexander the Great’ in their third meeting? It’s very hard to say. The first fight, after all, showed that Holloway could be beaten in a striking battle. Essentially, the Australian was quick enough to avoid the Hawaiian’s early attacks, and then worked him over with leg kicks, negating the footwork he’d usually deploy to land his big combinations.
The second fight, however, was much closer, with Holloway being able to land plenty of big shots of his own, only to eat just as many back from Volkanovski. It could’ve gone either way. If this weekend’s fight follows the same pattern, it’ll be very hard to split.
However, while Volkanovski has remained on top form since then, most recently stopping Chan Sung Jung violently, Holloway’s last two fights against Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez showed he’s really upped his boxing game. ‘Blessed’ claims to be the best boxer in the UFC, and he may well be right.
Overall, this one is nearly impossible to pick, purely because even with Holloway’s improvements, Volkanovski has still never lost in the octagon and may well have a slight psychological edge. Despite that, ‘Blessed’ has rested up more than he did for the first two fights, may be slightly fresher, and is obviously an exceptional talent in his own right.
The pick, therefore, is Holloway via razor-close decision, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the promotion put together a fourth bout in the future.
The Pick: Holloway via decision
#3. UFC 276: The Main Card
As of the time of writing, this weekend's event has just two additional bouts on its main card thanks to the loss of Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate. Whether a fight gets moved up from the prelims or whether the promotion can find Tate a new opponent remains to be seen.
In the middleweight division, Sean Strickland faces Alex Pereira. This is a huge step up for Pereira, who famously knocked out Israel Adesanya in a 2017 kickboxing bout, but thus far into his MMA career he has looked excellent.
Strickland, though, is far more proven and is currently riding a six-fight win streak, even if the majority of those wins haven’t exactly been all that entertaining. The big question here is whether ‘Tarzan’ can get Pereira to the ground, as he does have a solid grappling game, and ‘Po Atan’ is obviously an unknown quantity there.
However, given that every fight starts on the feet, and Pereira is the kind of striker that rarely comes around in MMA, it’s hard to overlook the idea that Strickland will test himself standing and get burned. Therefore, the pick is Pereira via second-round KO.
In a bantamweight bout, Sean O’Malley takes on Pedro Munhoz. This is the first time O’Malley has really stepped up to the elite level. Thus far, he’s largely snacked on lower-level UFC opponents or foes who’ve been past their prime.
Munhoz is ranked at No.10 in the UFC bantamweight division, but worryingly for him, this looks like a good fight for ‘Sugar’. ‘The Young Punisher’ has won just one of his last five bouts and, more to the point, he was picked apart by Frankie Edgar, Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz.
O’Malley might not be ready for the best in the world at 135 pounds yet, but he does have excellent striking skills, a lot of power, and the ability to catch his foes with awkward shots from odd angles. He’ll also enjoy a 7” reach advantage here.
Overall, this one should go well for O’Malley, and if he can find a way to turn out Munhoz’s lights, it’d be hard not to buy him as the real deal. Given the Brazilian has never been stopped before, though, the pick is ‘Sugar’ via decision.
#4. UFC 276: The Prelims
Picks in bold
Lightweight division: Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner
Welterweight division: Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena
Welterweight division: Ian Garry vs. Gabriel Green
Welterweight division: Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone
Middleweight division: Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz
Women's flyweight division: Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber
Middleweight division: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Brad Tavares
Women's bantamweight division: Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Julija Stoliarenko