UFC Predictions: UFC 282: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev
This weekend sees the UFC return to Las Vegas for a major pay-per-view that will see a new light heavyweight champion crowned.
UFC 282: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev doesn’t look as strong as it did a couple of weeks back, but it still looks like a major show with plenty to look forward to.
So with some of the promotion’s biggest rising stars in action, this should be an event worth checking out.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 282: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev.
#1. UFC light heavyweight title: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Initially, the main event of this show would’ve seen Jiri Prochazka defending his UFC light heavyweight title in a rematch with former titleholder Glover Teixeira.
Unfortunately, it was announced on November 23 that Prochazka had suffered a major shoulder injury that would keep him out for six months – forcing him to vacate his crown.
Usually, logic would dictate that Teixeira would be facing someone here for the vacant title. Istead, the promotion has simply made Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev, the event’s planned co-headliner, a title bout instead.
Does Teixeira have the right to be upset with this? It’s debatable, as he definitely deserved the shot, but then again he also turned down a fight with Ankalaev here. At any rate, we’ll see a new champion crowned this weekend.
Of the two, Blachowicz obviously has more experience at this level. The Polish striker won the title in a clash with Dominick Reyes after Jon Jones vacated in 2020. He then defended it successfully against Israel Adesanya before dropping it to Teixeira last year.
OH MY GOODNESS 🇵🇱
@JanBlachowicz is your LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION.
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Since then, the Pole has picked up a win over Aleksandar Rakic, albeit via a knee injury, to move him back into contention.
What makes Blachowicz successful? He hits extremely hard, he’s a strong technical striker who sits behind a ramrod jab, and essentially, that’s it. Sure, his takedown defense and grappling are both underrated somewhat, but they’re also major holes in his game that can be exploited – as Teixeira did.
However, the fact is that to exploit those holes, a fighter has to get past that stiff jab without eating something nasty. For many of Blachowicz’s opponents, that hasn’t been at all easy. He’s a limited fighter, but he also makes the absolute most of his best attributes, making him hugely dangerous.
Ankalaev is probably better rounded, even if he hasn’t quite beaten the same calibre of opponents as Blachowicz. The native of Dagestan does have some excellent wins, beating Volkan Oezdemir, Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith, but he’s only headlined one event in his UFC tenure.
As you’d expect from a Dagestani fighter, Ankalaev is a truly fantastic grappler who is usually capable of grounding any foe. From the top he’s ruthless with his ground-and-pound, and he’s also a heavy-handed – if a little wild – striker on the feet.
No doubt this time around!
Magomed Ankalaev and Ion Cutelaba finally faced off again at #UFC254 at the fourth attempt 👊
The Dagestani showed why he's such a danger. Serious stopping power 💣 https://t.co/cU9pYP4OVs
The only real knock on him has been his tendency to do just enough to win, meaning that at times, fans haven’t really bought into him all that much. We don’t really know a lot about his chin, but then he simply hasn’t been tested because he’s been able to avoid taking a big shot, which isn’t a bad thing.
Overall, Blachowicz can definitely win this fight if he can land a clean shot on Ankalaev, but it’s hard to imagine him being able to do that. Ankalaev is not a one-dimensional grappler, and he’ll be able to set up his takedowns with his strikes. If he can get inside the Polish fighter, there’s no doubt that he’ll be able to get him down.
When you add in the fact that the Dagestani is in the prime of his career at 30, while Blachowicz is nearly 40, it’s hard to imagine the former champ regaining his crown back here. It’s also hard to imagine, should he win, anyone dethroning Ankalaev any time soon.
The Pick: Ankalaev via third-round submission
#2. UFC lightweight division: Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon
The UFC has never really been renowned for playing it slowly with hot prospects. Over the years we’ve seen a number of potential stars end up missing the mark because they were thrown to the wolves too soon. However, that seems to be changing.
The promotion played it slow with Sean O’Malley. Their approach worked perfectly, to the point that ‘Sugar’ has now developed into a top-level contender at bantamweight.
Right now, it feels like they’re taking the same approach with Paddy Pimblett. So will it work?
On the one hand, this should be a winnable bout for him. Jared Gordon has more octagon experience, holding a record of 7-4, but he’s never really beaten anyone of note, save for the ageing Leonardo Santos.
More to the point, he’s lost to his best four opponents and has been finished every time, most recently by Grant Dawson in April this year.
Pimblett, on the other hand, has gone 3-0 thus far, knocking out Luigi Vendramini and submitting Rodrigo Vargas and Jordan Leavitt. He’s proven himself to be a highly dynamic grappler and a more than willing striker.
It's only July but Paddy wrapped him up like a Christmas present! 🤌
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Does ‘The Baddy’ have weaknesses? Of course. His striking defense hasn’t looked great in his octagon run, particularly against Vendramini. During his run in Cage Warriors, he also struggled somewhat with powerful wrestlers.
Whether he’s worked on that hole in his game is a mystery, and the question likely won’t be answered by ‘Flash’ Gordon here. However, he’ll definitely need to be more careful on the feet than he was with Vendramini.
Overall, though, this should be a comfortable fight for Pimblett. He’s far more explosive and dynamic than Gordon and if he can get him to the ground, there’s no reason why he can’t finish his foe in the same way he did to Leavitt a few months back.
Bigger tests definitely lie in the future for ‘Paddy the Baddy’, particularly if he jumps up the rankings at some stage, but this one should be a passable one for him.
The Pick: Pimblett via first-round submission
#3. UFC 282: The Main Card
In a welterweight bout, Robbie Lawler faces Santiago Ponzinibbio. Both of these men are coming off losses, but this should be a definite contender for the Fight of the Night award, as they look to strike and brawl with anyone they face.
Essentially, both men have the ability to turn the lights off on the other here. It should come down to which man is more durable at this point in their career. The suspicion is that former UFC champ Lawler might be shot. Therefore, the pick is Ponzinibbio via TKO.
In a middleweight fight, Darren Till returns to face Dricus du Plessis. This is a fascinating bout because it should let us know whether Till really is a genuine contender at 185 pounds.
Nobody can question the striking skill or power of ‘The Gorilla’. The big variables are the fact that he tends to fight at such a low output that his opponents are never out of a fight, and that his takedown defense has looked poor.
He’ll hope that his work with Khamzat Chimaev will help in that regard, but equally, du Plessis is unlikely to test him there anyway. He’s more of a blitzing striker, and he’s won all three of his UFC bouts thus far.
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🇿🇦 @DricusDuPlessis putting South Africa on the MAP! #UFC264 https://t.co/J2VnS9SInJ
However, this fight might be one in which his aggression works against him. Till is an excellent counterstriker, he packs plenty of power, and he knows how to outwork a foe if they’re willing to come to him. It’s a close one to call due to Till’s poor recent form, but the pick is ‘The Gorilla’ via TKO.
Finally, Bryce Mitchell meets Ilia Topuria in a featherweight bout that should be outstanding. Mitchell is still unbeaten in professional MMA and has five wins in the octagon, including a victory over Edson Barboza.
Topuria, meanwhile, is a powerful fighter who can strike and grapple equally well. He’s also unbeaten, holding four octagon wins, even though they’re not of the same calibre as Mitchell’s.
This one could definitely go either way, but Mitchell probably has more tools to win. ‘Thug Nasty’ is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the game, and if he can avoid the big shot from Topuria, this should be a win for him.
#4. UFC 282: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC heavyweight bout: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus
UFC bantamweight bout: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin
UFC middleweight bout: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula
UFC middleweight bout: Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley
UFC featherweight division: Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Ovince St. Preux vs. Antonio Trocoli
UFC featherweight bout: TJ Brown vs. Erik Silva
UFC flyweight bout: Vinicius Salvador vs. Daniel Lacerda
UFC bantamweight bout: Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow